We’re through Week 15 of the 2024 NFL regular season. Although the postseason is still three weeks away, we take an early look at the current playoff picture and the path to Super Bowl LIX. Which teams are in good shape? Which ones still have a lot of work to do to ultimately get into the 14-team field?

We used ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) to forecast the remainder of the season, looking at the playoff picture for both conferences. We’ve added updated odds for each team to reach the postseason, win their division and even reach the Super Bowl. We also looked at the potential for teams in the playoffs to finish with certain seeds and the potential for teams outside the playoffs to finish with the top draft pick. Here you will find everything you need now.

Last updated: December 17 at 10 a.m. ET

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AFC | NFC | seeds | No. 1 choice

Projecting the AFC playoff field

The Chiefs, Bills and Texans all won their respective division titles. The Steelers are also officially in the playoffs and can secure the AFC North with a win against the Ravens. That means all four AFC divisions could have champions by Saturday night.

The Ravens, Broncos and Chargers all look good to make the playoffs, so there may not be much left to play in this conference after Week 16.

• The Ravens can win with a win against Pittsburgh or losses to Indianapolis and Miami.

• The Broncos can win with a win against the Chargers or losses to Cincinnati, Indianapolis and Miami.

• The Chargers can prevail with a win against Denver and losses against Indianapolis and Miami.

Six teams are eliminated from the AFC: the Titans, Raiders, Jets, Patriots, Jaguars and Browns.

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NFC playoff field projection

The Lions, Eagles and Vikings have all secured a playoff spot, and the Packers are poised to join them. They need a win against the Saints. But they can also advance with a loss to the Falcons and then a loss to the Seahawks or Rams. In addition, there is still a lot of room for improvement with NFC.

The Eagles win the NFC East with a win over Washington, and the NFC South appears to be a two-team race between the Buccaneers and Falcons, although Tampa Bay is the favorite (80% to win the division). The NFC West is wide open. The Rams have a 53% chance of making both the playoffs and the division. But both the Seahawks and Cardinals are very much alive there.

The Commanders can secure a spot in the playoffs with a win, a Falcons loss and another loss to the Rams or Seahawks.

The Giants, Bears and Panthers have been eliminated and the Cowboys, Saints and 49ers are headed that way. Seven NFC teams have elimination scenarios this weekend, and four of them – Cincinnati, Dallas, New Orleans and San Francisco – are eliminated with one loss and no additional requirements.

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Check out our NFL Playoff Machine

Simulate your own scenarios and view the latest playoff image: Try the 2024 NFL Playoff Image.

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Seeding projections

Here are the odds of teams in the playoff mix falling into each slot once the field is set. ESPN’s FPI is fairly confident that Houston will finish in fourth place in the AFC, but it’s not certain about other playoff contenders. The Ravens, for example, have a 24% chance of finishing third, a 42% chance of finishing fifth, and a 25% chance of finishing sixth. And when it comes to the top spot, the Chiefs have a 78% lead. They would win this weekend with a win and a Bills loss.

Due to the close division races in the NFC, the numbers 3 and 4 are urgently up for grabs. Interestingly, the No. 5 seed is almost guaranteed for the NFC North runner-up. And when it comes to the No. 1 seed, the Lions currently have the advantage over the Eagles and Vikings — but the gap has narrowed.

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Race for the 2025 No. 1 draft pick

The Giants (2-12) are eliminated from the playoffs and appear to have the edge for the No. 1 seed in April. After releasing Daniel Jones, New York will certainly look at the quarterback class. But the Patriots and Panthers are also in the running for the top selection. The full draft regulation can be found here, which will be updated on Tuesdays.

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NFL playoff schedule

11th–13th January 2025: Wildcard round
18th-19th January: Divisional round
January 26: AFC and NFC championship games
February 9: Super Bowl LIX (in New Orleans)