Week 16 of the NFL season begins with an important AFC West matchup between the Denver Broncos (9-5) and the Los Angeles Chargers (8-6) on “Thursday Night Football.”

The division rivals enter the week with the final two spots in the AFC playoff race. The Broncos are at -1200 heading into the postseason, while the Chargers are at -1000.

Denver is looking for its fifth straight win after defeating the Indianapolis Colts 31-13 last Sunday. Los Angeles is coming off its second straight loss, a 40-17 loss at home to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Chargers won the first meeting in Week 6 in Denver 23:16.

The action at SoFi Stadium begins at 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video.

Odds are current as of publication, courtesy of ESPN BET

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Game lines

Spread: Chargers -3 (Opened Chargers -3)
Money line: Chargers -150, Broncos +130
Over/Under: 42.5 (Open 42.5)

Distribution in the first half: Chargers -0.5 (-115), Broncos +0.5 (-105)
Broncos total points: 19.5 (above -125/below -105)
Chargers Overall Score: 21.5 (above -115/below -115)

Matchup Predictor (according to ESPN Analytics): Chargers 57.7% chance of winning

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The props

Passing by

Justin Herbert’s total passing yards: 224.5 (Over -135/Under +105)
Herbert total passing TDs: 1.5 (Over +110/Under -145)
Bo Nix’s total passing yards: 224.5 (Over +100/Under -130)
Zero total TDs passed: 1.5 (Over +145/Under -190)

Rush

Gus Edwards total rushing yards: 34.5 (above -115/below -115)
Nix total rushing yards: 19.5 (above -135/below +105)
Kimani Vidal Total Rushing Yards: 29.5 (Over +105/Under -135)

Reception

Ladd McConkey receiving total yards: 69.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
Courtland Sutton receiving total yards: 69.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
Quentin Johnston total receiving yards: 39.5 (above -130/below +100)
Stone Smartt Total Receiving Yards: 39.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
Devaughn Vele total receiving yards: 29.5 (above -130/below +100)

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Tyler Fulghum’s choice

UNDER 42.5 total points (-115)

While I lean towards the Chargers side on a bounce back, I really love attacking the overall line and going under. It is the second meeting between these two teams this year. We only got 39 points in the first game, so a similar point would put us in the dugout again. Justin Herbert may be a little banged up, and even with Patrick Surtain missing from the Broncos’ defense, I still think we’ll see limited volume and explosiveness from both offenses in this game.

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Betting trends

Courtesy of ESPN Research

• The Broncos have the best ATS record in the NFL at 11-3. They are the first team since the 2022 Cincinnati Bengals to start 11-3 ATS. The Chargers (10-4 ATS) are tied with the second-best Pittsburgh Steelers.

• The Broncos have played five straight games, the longest active streak in the NFL and their longest single-season coverage streak since 2012 (5). Another cover would be their longest ATS winning streak since 2009 (6).

• The Broncos are 6-1 ATS on the road this season.

• The Chargers are 8-2 ATS and 4-1 ATS as home favorites this season.

• The Chargers are 4-0 ATS in division games this season.

• The Overs are 4-0 in the Chargers’ last four home games.

• In Broncos games, the overs in the first half are 11-3.

• The Broncos’ over/under for wins to start the season was 5.5. They reach the over with a win in Week 11. The Chargers (8.5) can clinch their over with a win on Thursday.

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