Kyle Shanahan and the San Francisco 49ers will travel to Miami to meet up with old friend Mike McDaniel and the Dolphins. In 2021, after a successful tenure as the 49ers’ running game coordinator and offensive coordinator, Miami hired McDaniel as head coach to usher in a new era of Dolphin football.

Since the two friends parted ways, both coaches have led their teams to the playoffs in 2022 and 2023. Unfortunately, both teams’ seasons ended in 2023 at the hands of the Chiefs. In 2024, the parallels persist in more ways than one. Both teams suffered impact injuries this season and fell short of expectations. Both teams enter the game with a record of 6-8 and their playoff chances on life support. The similarities don’t stop there.

Here are some things to watch for on Sunday in Miami.

Staffing trends

It’s no secret that McDaniel and Shanahan have worked together on various aspects of the 49ers’ offense, particularly in the run game. Creating angles and gaining boxing advantages were key for the duo.

In their third season since McDaniel’s hiring in Miami, both offenses are reflected in personnel usage.

The 49ers have played a total of 832 games, while Miami has played 893. The 49ers and Dolphins rank 28th and 30th, respectively, in 11 personnel appearances (1 RB, 1 TE and 3 WR).

League average – 60.6% rate and 0.01 expected points added

San Francisco – 384 games, 46.2% rate, -0.02 expected points added (14th), -0.06 EPA/pass, 0.05 EPA/rush, 62.2% pass rate

Miami – 356 games, 39.9% rate, 0 expected points added (13th), -0.04 EPA/pass, 0.1 EPA/rush, 71.9% pass rate

Both teams lead the NFL with 21 players (2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR), with 36.9% for San Francisco (1st) and 29.1% for Miami (2nd).

League average – 6.3% rate and 0.03 expected points added

San Francisco – 307 games, 0.15 expected points added (8th), 0.34 EPA/pass, 0 EPA/rush, 44% pass rate

Miami – 260 games, -0.08 expected points added (17th), 0.16 EPA/pass, -0.26 EPA/rush, 40% pass rate

The two offenses buck NFL trends in personnel tendencies and are committed to their offensive philosophies.

Red zone regression

Last season, Christian McCaffrey and Raheem Mostert were touchdown machines. McCaffrey struggled with Achilles tendonitis before suffering a season-ending PCL injury in Buffalo. Meanwhile, Mostert is dealing with some injuries, but Miami prioritizes De’Von Achane’s playing time over Mostert, regardless of health status.

In 2023, San Francisco ranked first in red zone touchdown percentage at 68%, while Miami ranked third at 65.52%. High production in the red zone was bound to return to average, but both offenses remained far from the top of the NFL in 2024.

Miami fell from third to 12th in the NFL with 58.14%, and the 49ers fell from first to 23rd with 52.94%. San Francisco averages 3.6 red zone trips per game (10th) and Miami averages 3.1 per game (19th). The last three games have been more efficient in the red zone for both teams, with the 49ers converting 66.67% (8th in that span) and Miami converting 60% (13th in that span).

Defense ranks

After a season in which the 49ers allowed 18.8 points per game (4th in the NFL), the 2024 version allowed 22.9 points per game (17th in the NFL). Miami is currently tied for 13th in the NFL with New Orleans allowing 22.3 points per game after the 2023 season, which translates to 23.2 points per game.

The Dolphins were stingy against the run in 2024, allowing just 103.6 rushing yards per game (8th in the NFL). San Francisco ranks 15th in the NFL with 117.8 rushing yards allowed per game.

San Francisco’s pass defense ranks second in the NFL in yards allowed per game with just 181 yards per game. Miami ranks eighth with 205 passing yards allowed per game.

Each team’s defensive averages per game are similar.

The similarities between San Francisco and Miami aren’t just due to former coaches and players. In 2024, both teams will face the duel on Sunday almost identically. The year changes, but these two teams stay the same. In 2024, both teams will be in almost identical positions.