We finish the first round of the Australian Open on day three with 20 men’s matches on the program. As always, our writers here at LastWordOnTennis share their thoughts on each game with you. We have divided the 20 games into five articles, the other four are about Gael Monfils against Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Taylor Fritz against Jenson Brooksby, Daniil Medvedev against Kasidit Samrej and Andrey Rublev against Joao Fonseca. These games are predicted by Damian Kust, Shane Black and Andreas Pelekis. Who do you think will advance?

Predictions for Day 3 of the Men’s Australian Open

Corentin Moutet vs Alexei Popyrin

Damian:
Popyrin improved a lot last year, but the duel with Moutet was very difficult for him in the past. It could be a wild game with the crowd supporting its player and probably angering the feisty underdog. If Popyrin survives this, he has a chance at great success. But against someone who knows how to knock you down on the tennis court, it’s a pretty big problem.
Prediction: Popyrin in 5

Shane:
Popyrin loves playing in Australia for obvious reasons. He defeated Taylor Fritz in Melbourne two seasons ago and will once again feed off the crowd’s energy. Moutet will also have to deal with the crowd as he enjoys playing the role of the villain. However, Popyrin will be too much for the Frenchman.
Prediction: Popyrin in 4

Andrew:
Moutet’s slow but tricky game could frustrate Popyrin, who relies on power and high-energy opportunities. However, the Australian finished his 2024 season strong and should be able to maintain his good form with victory in this game.
Prediction: Popyrin in 3

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Rinky Hijikata vs. Mitchell Krueger

Damian:
Krueger had that resurgence last year and looked really strong in qualifying, which could suggest he’ll be able to keep it up for at least some time. Hijikata doesn’t have the weapons to take him out, leaving the American in this match. But he loves playing with a home crowd and that extra burst of intensity might be just what he needs to finish it off.
Prediction: Hijikata in 5

Shane:
Hijikata played strong tennis until the end of the 2024 season and started 2025 with two upsets to reach the Adelaide quarterfinals. He and Krueger are expected to trade a lot of long rallies on the baseline, but I expect the former North Carolina Tar Heel’s consistency to prevail.
Prediction: Hijikata in 4

Andrew:
Krueger qualified for the main draw last week, competing here for the first time since 2019. Hijikata made a strong run to the Adelaide quarter-finals and should be motivated after losing a heartbreaking fifth-set tiebreak in the first round of the Australian Open last year. With a win, the Australian will reach the second round for the second time.
Prediction: Hijikata in 4

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Pablo Carreno Busta vs. Kamil Majchrzak

Damian:
They had a fantastic duel in Poznan last year when both were on the comeback path. Majchrzak survived match points in qualifying but only improved from there, while Carreno Busta is still more about glimpses of his former self. It’s close, you can probably just flip a coin. If Majchrzak’s resurgence continues, this would be the right way to take another step.
Prediction: Majchrzak in 5th

Shane:
Carreno Busta has recovered from his injury but is still nowhere near his top-15 form. He has already had success Down Under and I expect him to have another strong performance at the Australian Open. The Polish qualifier can be dangerous, but I find it difficult to see his path to victory against the consistent Spaniard.
Prediction: Carreno Busta in 4th

Andrew:
Carreno Busta hasn’t lost a first-round match at the Australian Open since 2016, but he’s struggled with form and injuries for much of the last few seasons. The two have played twice on clay courts at the ATP Challenger Tour level, so it’s difficult to get a feel for who will thrive better on the hard courts. Majchrzak has come through qualifying to get here and could be feeling a bit more confident with a few games under his belt.
Prediction: Majchrzak in 4th

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Holger Rune against Zhizhen Zhang

Damian:
Zhang has only won one game since reaching the Hangzhou final, but he is not a player who needs to have a good rhythm to suddenly produce an outstanding performance. It’s just that making it through at least three sets against someone as versatile as Rune seems a little excessive at the moment. He’ll have his moments, but that’s probably all.
Prediction: Rune in 4

Shane:
Rune won just one game between the two hard-court Slams last season. This is unusual for one of the better ball strikers on tour. Zhang is a fan of hard courts himself, but it will be difficult for him to outlast a motivated Rune.
Prediction: Rune in 4

Andrew:
It’s been a tough road for Rune lately and his last Grand Slam appearance ended in a miserable straight-sets defeat to Brandon Nakashima at the US Open. Zhang also struggled on tour and Rune will have a new coaching staff who could improve his form here again. The Dane wins this match with four players.
Prediction: Rune in 4

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