CNN
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It’s been less than a week since the first wildfires of the year ripped through the air over Los Angeles, carried by Hurricane Santa Ana-level wind gusts, sparking some of the deadliest wildfires California has ever seen.

The Palisades Fire began Tuesday and had burned more than 17,000 acres by the end of Wednesday.

And in the days since, Angelenos have come together to help those who lost everything, even as they remained on high alert and a gust of wind away from potential disaster.

Now that the Palisades Fire and nearby Eaton Fire are still largely uncontained, renewed Santa Ana winds threaten to expand those fires or even start new ones. So when will these fires end? And what do firefighters need to stay on top?

“We need Mother Nature to give us a break,” Cal Fire Deputy Chief Brice Bennett told CNN on Sunday. “We have the firefighters. We have the water. We need the time.”

LIVE UPDATES: At least 24 dead as returning winds threaten to undo progress

When these fires might end is only part of the uncertainty ahead. There is no satisfactory solution to the longer-term question of how to recover from fiery devastation in a world of increasingly extreme weather disasters. Exhausted, emotionally drained and awaiting more warning signs early in the week, the city is preparing for the unthinkable.

In the immediate future, trying to estimate when wildfires will be contained is largely guesswork and depends on fluid factors such as terrain and firefighter effectiveness. But the most important factors are clear: wind and rain, or the lack thereof.

“Weather plays a critical role in all of this because they have been in critical fire behavior for so long,” said Joe Ten Eyck, wildfire/urban interface fire programs coordinator for the International Association of Fire Fighters. “They’re making good progress out here, but are issuing fire warnings again because the Santa Ana winds are supposed to come back – all weather models say there’s no precipitation in sight for at least the next 10 days. ”

According to the National Weather Service, the next few days will prove crucial for firefighting as dry weather and strong winds are expected to continue before temperatures cool toward the end of the week. According to the weather service, light rain is expected next week.

Even if the fires finally stop, the recovery will be lengthy and the threat of more fires in drought-stricken California is never far away. Less than two weeks into 2025, more than 100 fires have burned nearly 40,000 acres, a huge increase compared to the five-year average at this point of 46 fires that burned 13 acres.

“These numbers underscore the urgency of preparation,” CalFire said. “Now more than ever, it is more important to protect your home from wildfires and create defensible space around your property. Simple steps like removing dry vegetation, maintaining a buffer zone and using fire-resistant building materials can make a difference.”

More broadly, this fire has raised overarching questions about how the region can potentially recover and, in a warming world, whether it can prepare for similar outbreaks in coming years. A CNN review of government reports and interviews with more than a dozen experts suggests this level of devastation could have been minimized but may just be the new normal at a time of climate-related disasters.

For the fires around Los Angeles County, including the Palisades and Eaton fires, weather forecasting will be critical for the immediate future.

There is a red flag warning that means “critical fire weather conditions” are likely Space for Los Angeles and Ventura counties until Wednesday at 6 p.m. The more extreme conditions are due to “moderate to locally strong Santa Ana winds,” according to the weather service.

Although winds died down for part of the day Sunday, they picked up again and are expected to be moderate to strong through at least Wednesday, Rich Thompson, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service, said Sunday afternoon.

“The very dry vegetation combined with ongoing extreme fire weather conditions will encourage the rapid spread and unpredictable behavior of new or existing fires,” the warning says.

Warnings also apply to other parts of Southern California, including inland Orange County and the Inland Empire, areas south and east of Los Angeles.

Fire officials and experts told CNN on Saturday that Santa Ana winds could blow west toward the coast – causing the Palisades Fire, which had moved east, to blow back on itself – helping , to tame the fire by pushing it onto already burned land with little fuel left.

Firefighting efforts could be further aided through the end of the week as temperatures cool, humidity rises and winds ease, and light rain could continue into next week.

“The concern is that before we get to that point, we have the winds that are expected to pick up again,” said CNN meteorologist Allison Chinchar.

The rainy season in California generally lasts from December to March. But this year the rain hasn’t really started yet, with only 0.01 inches of rain recorded in LA since December 1st.

The history of wildfires in California provides clues about how long wildfires generally last. Some of the deadliest fires in the state’s history were contained within days, while others burned in rural areas for several months.

The fires with the highest death toll in the state had a relatively limited time span. The 2018 Camp Fire, the deadliest in state history with 85 deaths, stopped burning after 18 days. The second deadliest fire, the 1933 Griffith Park fire, killed 29 people in just two days, and the 1991 Tunnel-Oakland Hills fire, which killed 25 people, lasted just five days.

Other forest fires burned for months. The 2020 North Complex Fire began on August 17 and burned nearly 319,000 acres until it was fully contained on December 3 – a total of 109 days. Likewise, the August Complex Fire began just a day earlier, on August 16, and burned more than 1 million acres of land by November 12 – a total of 89 days.

Additionally, within certain limits, a wildfire can be completely “contained” but continue to burn. The Mendocino Complex Fire began on July 27, 2018 and was 100% contained as of September 18. Nevertheless, hot spots within this boundary continued to smolder for several months until it was completely extinguished on January 4, 2019.

Once the wildfires are contained, their impacts will persist for years to come.

This is followed by the search for survivors, the search for victims and the start of the clean-up work.

About 105,000 residents are under evacuation orders and about 87,000 residents are under evacuation warning, L.A. County Sheriff Robert Luna said at a news conference Sunday. Residents will not be allowed to return to the area until Thursday after the warning passes, he said.

“When you drive through some of these areas, they literally look like war zones. There are fallen power poles and power cables. There are still some smoldering fires. It’s not safe,” he said on Sunday. “We want to get you back to your homes, but we can’t allow that until it’s safe for you.”

The fires that destroyed the town of Lahaina on Maui, Hawaii, in August 2023 offer a glimpse of the possible timeline to come. Debris removal work from residential properties was completed earlier this month, while debris removal from commercial and public properties is expected to be completed next month.

Overall, the official Maui Recovers website offers a “short-term” plan for the next one to two years, a “medium-term” plan for three to five years, and a “long-term” plan for six or more years.

The “Herculean effort” to clear debris will begin once inspectors assess and document the damage to thousands of homes, California Gov. Gavin Newsom told CNN’s Kyung Lah on Sunday.

According to the governor, it is expected to take six to nine months to clean up all debris and toxic materials left behind from the burning of homes and buildings. The process is complicated by toxic waste and the need to remove debris consistent with reconstruction efforts, he said.

“I am for efficiency, transparency and cost-effective further development,” he said. “And then you’re responsible again for the next step, which is not just about scraping things and cleaning things up, but getting the rebuild going.”

On a global scale, extreme weather phenomena such as wildfires have become more frequent, destructive and deadly due to human-caused climate change.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency ranked Los Angeles County as “the most vulnerable county in the United States to natural disasters,” according to a recent county progress report on an initiative launched in 2023 to create “climate-smart communities and infrastructure” in the face of these increased risks.