NBA predictions today: Best bets and player props

NBA predictions today: Best bets and player props

The 2024-25 NBA season is in full swing. I’ll be posting the best NBA bets and player props here as often as possible, as well as occasional posts on major news shaking up the league. So be sure to check out my work throughout the season. With that out of the way, let’s dive into some of the best NBA bets and NBA player props for Monday, January 13th. Also, be sure to check out the tips page (linked to the bottom right) before the games begin. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.

MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have to offer on January 13th

NBA Best Bets Today – January 13th

Memphis Grizzlies at Houston Rockets – 8:00 p.m. ET

I have a future in the Western Conference with both teams, but I definitely have more confidence in the Grizzlies ticket. While Houston ranks third in the league in adjusted defensive rating (108.5) this season, Memphis ranks sixth in that regard (110.2). However, the Grizzlies rank sixth in the NBA in adjusted offensive rating (115.1). The Rockets are just 11th in adjusted offensive rating (113.4). And Memphis would probably be a little higher in the league rankings if the team was a little healthier. After all, the Grizzlies have posted an offensive rating of 117.5 in the two games since Ja Morant returned from injury. Over the entire season, that would be good for fourth place in the league. And realistically, it’s Memphis’ offense that makes it hard to dislike the team tonight against Houston.

This will be a game where both teams try to make stops, but only one of these teams has a truly reliable playmaker running the show. Morant is simply much better at creating for himself and his teammates than anyone else on the Rockets. And while Alperen Sengun excels as an offensive center, Memphis has the elite defense of Jaren Jackson Jr. and the unteachable size of Zach Edey to keep him out of sorts. The Rockets also have some key pieces in the rotation as Tari Eason is listed as doubtful and Jabari Smith Jr. is not playing. Both of these guys are great for this team.

It’s also worth noting that Houston is just 10-12 and 10-11-1 against the field when facing teams with winning percentages between 60.0% and 70.0% under Ime Udoka. These are the games where it’s obvious the Rockets need to make a move that turns them into a star-level offensive player. I know Houston had three days off. That’s a huge advantage in the NBA. But I can’t wrap my head around seeing the Rockets as favorites against the Grizzlies right now.

Bet: Grizzlies +2.5 (-115 – 2 units)

NBA Player Props Today – January 13th

Minnesota Timberwolves at Washington Wizards – 7:00 p.m. ET

Before going 0 for 5 from 3 in the last game against the Grizzlies, Anthony Edwards had made at least four three-pointers in four straight games and seven of his previous nine games. Edwards is simply hitting triples this year, and doing so at an impressive rate. Well, only the Hawks give up more made 3s per game than the Wizards allow. Washington simply can’t defend the 3-point line, so Edwards should be able to do a lot of damage with his outrageous green light. Therefore, I’m not investing much in the game against Memphis, as the Grizzlies are fourth in the league with a 3-point defense percentage (34.4%). Edwards should feel a lot more comfortable about the kind of looks he’ll get here. We just have to hope Minnesota doesn’t push Washington off the field. Edwards will likely need his usual minutes to reach the four-point mark.

Bet: Edwards over 3.5 made 3s (-120)

San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Lakers – 10:30 p.m. ET

This season, Julian Champagnie is averaging 12.0 points, 4.6 rebounds and 1.3 assists per game for San Antonio. So I’m surprised his total points, rebounds and assists are down to 11.5 tonight. He has exceeded this number in points in two of the last four games alone. Champagnie also averaged 14.0 points, 6.5 rebounds and 1.5 assists per game in two meetings with the Lakers this season. I admit I’m a little nervous because this is a huge trap. But I play this game and hope that the minute situation goes well. Champagnie has struggled lately, playing less than 20 minutes in three of the last six games. But he is one of the Spurs’ best 3-point shooters, shooting 37.7% of his threes. I think Mitch Johnson can find some time to himself against a Los Angeles team that struggles to defend the perimeter at times. And even if Champagnie scores seven or eight points here, he can do a few little things to help score them.

Bet: Champagnie over 11.5 points + rebounds + assists (-109 – 1.5 units)

Additional pieces

This is where I add any late added plays, teasers/parlays, or in-season futures. Come back before tipping if you don’t want to miss anything. I can add something to my card at any time.

PARLAY: Raptors Alt +10.5 vs. Warriors & Spurs Alt +10.5 vs. Lakers (-110 – 2 units) – I’ve been a little off with these lately, so I’m sure the NBA teaser haters will enjoy this. However, I personally think it makes sense to pay attention to these alternative line combinations. So I will continue to attack them. I’m taking a few extra points with Toronto against Golden State tonight. While the Raptors have struggled most of the year, the Warriors have lost three of their last four games. And all three losses were by double digits. Meanwhile, Toronto returns home after a three-game road trip. This team should have a little more juice tonight. And for what it’s worth, the Warriors are just 5-7 ATS when facing teams that have posted winning percentages of 25.0% or less over the last two years. They don’t take these games as seriously as they should and I get a few extra points here. In the other game I like the 10.5 with San Antonio against Los Angeles. I don’t actually have teams at different levels. They have identical Adjusted Net Ratings on Dunks & Threes (-1.3), and then you have to consider all the terrible off-the-court things the Lakers have to deal with. The Spurs should be able to maintain that distance – and possibly even win. But here too, the extra points are additional insurance that I like to have if I don’t pay much.

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2024-25 NBA record: 162-162-1 (-2.36 units)

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