In a move that could reshape the American social media landscape, TikTok faces a possible ban in the United States on January 19 unless its Chinese parent company ByteDance sells the platform. The ban stems from a bipartisan law passed by Congress in April 2024 and signed by President Joe Biden, giving ByteDance nine months to find a U.S.-approved buyer or face closure.

The U.S. Department of Justice calls it “a national security threat of immense scope and magnitude,” and there are concerns that ByteDance could be forced to hand over American user data to the Chinese government – a claim TikTok and ByteDance strongly deny. And while President-elect Donald Trump has asked the Supreme Court to delay the ban to find a political solution after he takes office, the stakes remain high for an app used by an estimated 170 million Americans each month.

From the technical implications for everyday users to the potentially seismic shifts in social media power dynamics, the far-reaching impact of a ban could transform the way Americans create, consume and share digital content for years to come. Here’s why the ban is being proposed and how it will affect users.

Why might TikTok be banned?

At the heart of the TikTok controversy are questions about data protection and the algorithmic delivery of content. Like other major social platforms, TikTok uses user data to power its content recommendation system, and the scope and nature of its data collection practices have become a central point in the debate over its future in the US market.

Government institutions around the world have already become increasingly suspicious of TikTok, and concerns about its data practices have prompted major institutions to take action. In 2023, both the British government and the European Commission decided to restrict the use of the app and block it from employees’ devices. The BBC followed suit and instructed its staff to remove TikTok from the company’s phones, citing security considerations.

From a business perspective, there is a lot at stake. TikTok’s U.S. advertising revenue is expected to reach $11.01 billion in 2024, and potential buyers are already emerging, including former Los Angeles Dodgers owner Frank McCourt, who claims to have received verbal commitments from investors to the tune of Having received $20 billion. However, TikTok maintains that a sale is not feasible and that any potential sale would likely require approval from Chinese authorities.

The possible TikTok ban also has significant effects beyond the borders of the USA. The TikTok ban in India in 2020 sets a precedent – the app was similarly popular there before it was banned. The impact of the ban impacted India’s digital ecosystem, forcing content creators and users to adapt quickly. There have been similar, smaller-scale reactions in other regions – TikTok is currently blocked in several countries, including Iran, Nepal, Afghanistan and Somalia.

Will TikTok still work after ban?

If implemented, the ban would result in a cascading effect rather than an immediate shutdown. The most immediately obvious impact would be the removal of TikTok from official app stores, as the law would specifically prohibit the “distribution, maintenance, or updating” of TikTok by companies in the United States. Companies that violate this ban could face fines of up to $5,000 per user – potentially $8.5 billion given TikTok’s current estimated US user base.

It’s also worth noting that the app itself doesn’t automatically disappear from users’ phones. Instead, existing users would likely enter a period of gradual degradation as they lose access to important updates and security patches. It is expected that the app will become unstable and potentially insecure over time as it is no longer compatible with newer versions of mobile operating systems.

New users who did not have the TikTok app installed on their devices at the time of the ban could theoretically also “sideload” the app from unofficial sources if they own an Android device. However, this approach poses significant security risks and potentially exposes users to malicious software masquerading as TikTok. Additionally, iPhone users would face even greater obstacles – having to “jailbreak” their devices, a complex process that voids warranties and presents ongoing technical challenges.

Users who continue to use the TikTok app even after a ban can also expect a degraded experience as the app will be forced to rely on foreign servers, potentially resulting in slower performance for American users. However, unlike China’s approach to blocking foreign services, the legislation does not appear to require internet service providers to block access to TikTok’s website.

What alternatives are there if TikTok is banned?

In the rapidly evolving world of social media, predicting winners and losers remains a notorious challenge. Still, TikTok’s possible exit represents a fascinating case study in the dynamics of digital platforms and raises interesting questions about how the social media landscape might reconfigure itself in the aftermath.

Meta’s Instagram Reels embrace this moment with significant structural advantages. With over 3 billion users across the app family, Meta’s established ecosystem offers unparalleled reach. But size alone is no guarantee of success. The real test will be whether Instagram can evolve its engagement mechanisms to capture the addictive quality that has made TikTok a cultural phenomenon.

Google’s YouTube Shorts approach the challenge from a different angle. While Meta brings tremendous scale, YouTube’s deep experience in video optimization and creator monetization could prove just as valuable. Thanks to its established relationships with music labels and its robust content moderation infrastructure, the company is also well prepared for the technical challenges ahead. However, the platform needs to prove that it can translate these advantages into the rapid engagement that has made TikTok successful.

Other competitors include Snapchat, which has a strong presence with 800 million monthly active users, as well as potentially newer platforms that could fill the gap. However, replicating TikTok’s sophisticated recommendation algorithm and vibrant creator community would be a tall order for any platform.

Overall, competition between these tech giants could spark the next wave of social media innovation. For example, we could see accelerated development in key areas such as AI-driven content discovery, augmented reality features and new creator tools. The race to capture TikTok’s audience could lead to significant investments in areas that have seen slower progress in the past.

Of course, another interesting possibility is that no platform completely replicates TikTok’s magic formula. Instead of a simple transfer of users from one platform to another, we could see the emergence of entirely new forms of digital social interaction, which will be an interesting development to say the least.