Trump made the ceasefire in Gaza possible

Trump made the ceasefire in Gaza possible

But not for the reasons he or Biden’s critics cite

People look at smoke over the Gaza Strip
Amir Levy/Getty

Today, after 15 months of brutal war, Israel and Hamas reached an agreement to secure the release of Israeli hostages and the cessation of hostilities in Gaza. In the first six weeks of the deal, Israel will withdraw from much of the enclave and release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, including convicted mass murderers, in return for Hamas releasing 33 captive Israelis – some alive, some dead. Should all go according to plan , subsequent negotiations would ensure the release of the remaining Israeli hostages and the reconstruction of Gaza in the second and third phases of the agreement.

Given the precarious nature of the deal’s phased structure, despite the headlines and handshakes, the matter is far from settled. The agreement also needs to be ratified by the Israeli cabinet. If that happens, the following weeks will be traumatic as returning refugees from Gaza find out whether their homes are still standing and the families of Israeli hostages find out whether their loved ones are still alive.

The tentative agreement is nonetheless a victory for the foreign policy teams of Presidents Joe Biden and Donald Trump, who worked with regional partners Qatar and Egypt to achieve it. The terms largely reflect a proposal Biden himself put forward in May 2024, but the new president dragged the parties over the finish line. What changed was not Washington’s overall focus on the conflict. Far from increasing pressure on Israel, Trump demonstrated a further embrace of his positions during his 2024 campaign, repeatedly attacking Biden for restricting arms sales to Israel. But that stance may have helped both sides: Hamas could reasonably assume it wouldn’t get a better deal during Trump’s presidency, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right government likely agreed to the deal to remain in the new leader’s good graces when he took office.

Israel’s far right, whose lawmakers hold power in Netanyahu’s coalition, had previously threatened to collapse the government if a deal was reached without completely defeating Gaza’s Hamas. But amid Trump’s return, radicals have their sights set on larger goals, such as annexing the West Bank – which the Palestinians claim as their future state – and are reluctant to give up such opportunities. For this reason, they will likely vote against the ceasefire but leave Netanyahu in power and allow him to enforce the ceasefire.

In other words, it’s not that Trump had a stick with which to beat Israel that Biden didn’t; It is that his presidency holds out the prospect of carrots that Biden would never offer. It was less the president-elect’s pressure than his possible promise that drew Israel’s far right to the side. With Trump, everything is a transaction, and for his potential suitors – not just Israel, but also Hamas’s sponsors in Qatar – the ceasefire in Gaza is a down payment.

On the Palestinian side, the deal represents a temporary, if Pyrrhic, victory for a depleted Hamas, which can claim it has outlasted the Israeli army and parade some of the released prisoners through the streets of Gaza. But with its leaders killed and its territory devastated, the group will have little to celebrate or show for its October 7 atrocities. The terrorist organization may continue to impose its will through violence, but it is deeply unpopular in its own back door, according to recent polls.

Meanwhile, with Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar dead, Lebanon’s Hezbollah decimated, the pro-Iran regime toppled in Syria and the dismantling of Iran’s so-called Axis of Resistance, Netanyahu has a plausible claim to victory if the deal goes through. And if that doesn’t happen, or if Hamas proves insufficiently forthcoming in negotiations over the remaining hostages, it has a new American president in office who might be happy to support a return to hostilities.

The guns may mercifully remain silent for now, but if history is any indication, the long war between Israel and Hamas will continue in one form or another.

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