TThe TikTok ban on January 19th is fast approaching. However, there is a lot of uncertainty about what will actually happen to the app that day. TIME spoke to experts who claim that regardless of what actually happens on Sunday, the TikTok user experience is likely to deteriorate drastically in the coming weeks.

Can users access TikTok?

There is a high chance that TikTok will be shut down completely. During a Supreme Court hearing last week, a lawyer for TikTok said the app would be “blacked out” if the court did not lift the ban. On Wednesday, Reuters reported that TikTok is preparing to close its app on Sunday: Anyone who tries to log into the app will be redirected to a message alerting them to the ban and asking them to download their data, if he wants this. Users in India, where TikTok was banned in 2020, are facing a similar message.

A complete website ban would go beyond the legal requirement that prohibits app stores and third-party providers from hosting the app and associated data. Let’s say ByteDance, the Chinese company that owns TikTok, simply followed these rules. On Sunday, new users would be barred from downloading the app. However, those who already have TikTok on their phone would still have access to the app and would not risk any legal penalties for signing up.

However, TikTok would no longer be able to update the software, which would make it more buggy and slower over time. The app’s security would also weaken, making users more vulnerable to hackers. In this scenario, TikTok would die a slow death as its technology declines and its social fabric weakens as users move to other platforms.

Is using a VPN an option?

Many TikTok users may try to use a VPN (virtual private network) or access the app. VPNs encrypt location data, allowing users to appear as if they are somewhere else in the world. After X (formerly Twitter) was banned in Brazil, demand for VPNs skyrocketed, even as the government threatened users with a $9,000 per day fine for using such workarounds.

Kate Ruane, director of the Free Expression Project at the Center for Democracy and Technology, says VPNs would allow users to access TikTok legally. (The CDT participated in an amicus brief in support of TikTok and its users.) But Ruane expects the experience for these users to quickly deteriorate, particularly because TikTok files are not allowed to be hosted in the United States. “There will be a distance that data has to travel, for example, which may result in a degradation of service as video in particular is highly dependent on high-fidelity broadband internet access,” she says.

Bruce Randall Donald, a professor of computer science and mathematics at Duke University, adds that VPNs may not work very well on smartphones, the medium for which TikTok was designed. “They don’t work particularly well on devices like iPhone, iPad or Android that don’t have the full strength of VPN security,” he says. “The experience should be smoother on a laptop or desktop. But if you’ve ever used TikTok on a laptop or desktop, it’s not a very satisfying experience.”

Read more: Why so many TikTokers are switching to the Chinese app Red Note before the ban

Will the US government intervene?

Some in government have tried to save TikTok from its impending demise. On Wednesday, a group of lawmakers led by Massachusetts Senator Ed Markey introduced the Extend the TikTok Deadline Act, aiming to suspend the ban for 270 days. However, the original ban passed with broad bipartisan support, and this new bill is unlikely to get through both chambers in time.

President-elect Donald Trump is also interested in suspending the ban, arguing that as president he should have time to pursue a “political solution” to the problem. Once he becomes president, he could temporarily suspend the law as ByteDance begins the process to sell TikTok. But ByteDance has repeatedly said the app is not for sale.

Trump could also order his Justice Department to refrain from enforcing the law, rendering it virtually ineffective and nullifying his power. At Supreme Court arguments last week, Attorney General Elizabeth Prelogar acknowledged that the president had discretion to do so. But she also said that if ByteDance or third-party providers continued to operate TikTok in the U.S., they would be violating the law, making them vulnerable to future enforcement.

Ruane expressed a similar opinion. “Even if President Trump and the new attorney general say, ‘I will not enforce this law,’ there would still be significant legal risk for the companies covered by the law that they may not want to take,” she says. “If the decision ever changes, they could face significant penalties.”

Donald predicts that most companies that could offer TikTok services would prefer to play it safe instead. “If they don’t comply with the regulations, at least for a certain period of time, there is a vulnerability there because the market capitalization and the situation of shareholders would actually be somewhat dangerous,” he says.

So while there are several loopholes for users to stay on TikTok, strong disincentives are likely to lead to a sharp decline in the platform experience. Meanwhile, government intervention seems to be becoming more and more distant. So unless something completely unexpected happens in the next week, it would be wise for creators to look for a replacement platform.