In a region where hope no longer exists, the prospect of a ceasefire represents a glimmer of possibility – but make no mistake, there is still great uncertainty about the agreement.

If all goes well, violence is underway Gaza that has ravaged the Enclave for 467 long and brutal days will stop and hopefully lead to a better future.

However, the question remains: How likely is it that the ceasefire agreement will be successful in the long term?

Latest ceasefire agreement: Dozens reported dead in Gaza attacks

The agreement will at least provide a short-term break from the fighting. It is perhaps better to view it in this context as a cessation of hostilities rather than an actual ceasefire.

According to the Israeli army, more than 45,000 Palestinians were killed during the Israeli military operation Hamas-led Ministry of Health in Gaza.

Israel initiated its response after Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023 killed around 1,200 people and took 250 hostage.

For IsraelThe first phase of the deal calls for the release of 33 hostages who have been held in the Strip since their abduction that day.

However, it is not lost on anyone how difficult it was afterwards lots of false starts – to get to this point.

The deal itself is deliberately ambiguous and one gets the feeling that it was left that way to simply get it over the finish line and get it going.

A lot could still go wrong and there are more questions than answers.

Hamas is involved in the negotiations, but Israel has made it clear that it must have no place in post-war Gaza.

As a unit and fighting force it is weakened, but far from defeated.

It almost certainly won’t give up power easily.

Read more:
What is in the ceasefire agreement?
The world will be watching – this ceasefire could still fail

It is this ambiguity that raises the specter that fighting could begin again at any time – many of the key questions remain unresolved.

For example, we still don’t know who will govern Gaza in the long term.

The international community’s response to this is a reformed Palestinian Authority, but a prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said in the past that this is unacceptable for Israel – nor for Hamas.

As for the mediators, the hope appears to be that agreement can begin and then further negotiations can take place over the six weeks of the first phase – and hopefully trust can be built on both sides to bring about a lasting ceasefire.

But if this all collapses, there could be a return of violence.

There are also domestic political considerations within Israel – in some ways the deal is everything.

That means Netanyahu can portray it as both temporary and permanent, depending on who he is talking to or trying to appease.

However, optimistically, this means that there will be no fighting as long as negotiations continue.

In general, it is also important to remember that there have been such over the years numerous attempts at ceasefire agreements – Most of them ultimately failed to bring lasting peace to the region.

This pattern of repeated failures casts doubt on the prospect of success this time.

Both sides have a long history of mistrust and hostility.