We have more Holy Smokes games on Saturday and this College Football Playoffs The selection committee has to make some judgments.

Ohio State’s loss to Michigan likely won’t knock the Buckeyes out of the group since they have wins over Penn State and Indiana, but it does raise the question of whether the Buckeyes will start the CFP on the road or at home. Additionally, losing to a team with such a limited offense calls into question how successful the Buckeyes can be in a tournament that now requires them to win four straight against teams all better than Michigan this year .

Meanwhile, Syracuse surprised Miami and knocked the Hurricanes out of the ACC Championship Game. That landed Clemson in the ACC title game against SMU. If the Tigers — who suffered their third loss Saturday with a loss to South Carolina — win, they’ll be in. If they lose, they’re out. Miami falls into a group of teams fighting for the last overall spot.

For last place, it will be a pure beauty contest, and every contestant has warts.

• Miami has losses to Georgia Tech and Syracuse.
• Alabama has beaten Georgia and South Carolina but has three losses – including a 24-3 loss to a mediocre Oklahoma team.
• Ole Miss beat Georgia and South Carolina but lost to Kentucky, LSU and Florida.
• South Carolina may be the hottest team in the country right now, but the three losses also included straight losses to Alabama and Ole Miss.

How will the committee sort these teams? We’ll get the first clue on Tuesday when the rankings are announced, but we’ll do our best to guess here.

The four best seeds

Remember, these four spots are reserved for conference champions only. So don’t worry if you see an ACC team at No. 3 and a Big 12 team at No. 4. If there are Big Ten and SEC teams ranked 1 and 2, then the rules do not allow another team from either of those leagues up to 5th. The top four receive a bye in the first round and play in the quarterfinals a bowl game free.

1. Oregon (Big Ten Champion)
The Ducks beat Washington and instead of a rematch with Ohio State, they now face Penn State for the Big Ten title. If Oregon wins, it will end up here. A loss likely gives the Ducks the No. 5 seed.

2. Texas (SEC Champion)
The Longhorns’ defense dominated at Texas A&M, saving several mistakes on offense and special teams. Reduce the offensive errors and Texas can beat Georgia in the SEC title game and finish here. Otherwise, the Longhorns will likely end up at No. 6.

3. SMU (ACC Champion)
The Mustangs went undefeated in conference play in their first season in the ACC, but they need one more win to secure a place in the field. A loss to Clemson in the ACC title game would leave SMU at the mercy of the committee and put them in the same bucket as two-loss Miami and three-loss Alabama, Ole Miss and South Carolina. If Clemson were to win the ACC title, the Tigers could be the No. 4 seed, as a 12-1 Mountain West champion, Boise State, could get the No. 3 seed.

4. Boise State (Mountain West Champion)
If the Broncos beat UNLV in the Mountain West title game, it’s highly unlikely the Big 12 champion would overtake them in the committee’s rankings. Boise State was No. 11 this week, while Big 12 championship contenders Arizona State and Iowa State were No. 16 and 18, respectively. If the committee stays consistent – which is never a guarantee given their history – the Broncos should be fine if they win.

The At-Larges

These teams did not win their conference but are in the tournament. They can come from anywhere. The Nos. 5-8 seeds host first-round games on campus. The teams seeded 9-12 go on the road.

5. Penn State
The Nittany Lions probably weren’t planning on playing in the Big Ten title game, but now they are. After a scare in Minnesota, they beat Maryland, and given the way they finished the Minnesota game and the way they played for four quarters on Saturday, they will arrive in Indianapolis in full force.

6. Notre Dame
The Fighting Irish won their 10th straight game by pulling away from USC thanks to two pick-sixes in the fourth quarter. They still have the worst loss (Northern Illinois) of any team in the group, but they’re also currently playing better than most of the other teams that will make the field.

7. Georgia
The Bulldogs needed eight overtimes to beat Georgia Tech, and while this win doesn’t change Georgia’s appearance in the SEC title game this week, it does eliminate a potentially difficult situation. A third loss could have put Georgia in danger of missing the CFP if it had lost in Atlanta. Now? Georgia is in the playoffs and will likely host a home game even if it loses to Texas. This is what this bracket is based on. But if the Texas offense is as sloppy in Atlanta as it was in the first half against Georgia or in the second half on Saturday against Texas A&M, then the Bulldogs will be the No. 2 seed and Texas will host a home game overall.

8. Ohio State
As embarrassing as the loss to Michigan was, Ohio State has two wins (one on the road) against teams that will make the CFP (Penn State and Indiana). That’s probably good enough to get a home game.

9. Tennessee
The Volunteers pulled away from Vanderbilt on Saturday, effectively clinching a spot in the field. All the fear from a few weeks ago about Tennessee in the bubble has disappeared and carried over to Miami and the SEC teams that slipped up for a third time. The volumes are there.

10.Indiana
The Hoosiers defeated rival Purdue to finish the regular season 11-1. They will conquer the field. It will be up to Curt Cignetti’s team to prove they belong – most likely away from home in a very large stadium.

11.Alabama
Of the teams competing for this spot, South Carolina is probably the one no one wants to see in the group. But the straight losses to Alabama and Ole Miss seem prohibitive. Perhaps the committee will surprise us, but it seems to value power rankings like ESPN’s FPI, the Sagarin Ratings and the Massey Ratings. (These ratings are similar to those that linemen use to set point spreads, although committee members would likely never make that connection publicly.) All of these ratings put Alabama ahead of the other teams in this group. The committee had Alabama one spot ahead of Ole Miss last week, but that doesn’t necessarily mean everything is set in stone. We also need to see how far South Carolina rises and how far Miami falls.

First (Power) Four Out: Ole Miss, South Carolina, Miami, Clemson

The No. 12 seed

The rules state that the top four ranked conference champions will receive the top four seeds. The top five ranked conference champions will receive automatic bids. The rules do not distinguish power conferences from Group 5 leagues. This does not have to be a Group 5 team, and if Boise State continues to win, it is very likely that the Broncos will be ranked higher than the Big 12 champion.

12. Arizona State (Big 12 Champion)
The Sun Devils defeated Arizona on Saturday to secure their spot in the title game. Iowa State had to beat Kansas State and then wait for BYU to beat Houston, but the Cyclones showed

The projected bracket

No. 9 Tennessee and No. 8 Ohio State
The winner will face No. 1 Oregon in the Rose Bowl

No. 12 Arizona State and No. 5 Penn State
The winner will face No. 4 Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl

No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Georgia
The winner will face No. 2 Texas in the Sugar Bowl

No. 11 Alabama at No. 6 Notre Dame
The winner will face No. 3 SMU in the Peach Bowl

Remaining bubble teams

The best way to illustrate this group is to divide it into two subgroups: potential overall winners and potential win-and-in conference champions. It should go without saying that a potential all-rounder is also a potential conference champion. In the Big Ten and SEC, it is likely that either team that makes it to the conference title game will also make the CFP. That’s not a guarantee in the ACC and Big 12, and one or two teams that make it into those games may only have a chance to win the league to get into the tournament.

Potential at-larges

ACC: Miami
Big Ten: No
Big 12: None
SEC: Alabama, Ole Miss, South Carolina

Potential Win-And-In Conference Champions:

ACC: Clemson
Big Ten: None
Big 12: Iowa State
SEC: None

Group of five bubble teams

Teams that can win their Group 5 League have a chance to become the highest-ranked Group 5 champion.

American Athletic Conference: army
Conference USA: None
MAC: None
Mountain West: UNLV
Sun belt: None