It will be expensive for the Jets to keep or release Aaron Rodgers

It will be expensive for the Jets to keep or release Aaron Rodgers

FLORHAM PARK, NJ – A look at what’s happening around the New York Jets:

1. No discount, check again: Another season for Aaron Rodgers would have far-reaching implications for the salary cap for the new regime – a major factor in deciding whether to retain the future Hall of Fame quarterback.

Rodgers is under contract through 2025 (he has four void years through 2029), but there is no guaranteed remaining money in his contract. That will help mitigate the cap impact when he’s gone, but the damage will still be significant.

Let’s explore the financial pros and cons of another year.

If Rodgers doesn’t play for the Jets in 2025 – if he’s cut or retires – the Jets will have to pay a $49 million “dead” fee, which represents a buildup of prorated bonuses from previous years. That’s a significant cap hit, more than double his cap hit if he’s on the roster ($23.5 million).

The $49 million can be spread over two years by giving it a cut after June 1 – $14 million in 2025 and $35 million in 2026. It might make sense for long-term planning purposes to absorb the full amount next year and create cap flexibility for the future.

Now let’s assume Rodgers returns in 2025. While the cap hit ($23.5 million) would be manageable, they would have to pay him a $35 million option bonus through the first game of the regular season in addition to a $2.5 million base salary.

Now the disadvantage. If he comes back for a year, the dead charge rises to $63 million in 2026. The reason for the increase is the option bonus, which would be distributed pro rata over the length of the contract (the invalid years) for cap purposes and would then accelerate until 2026 after his departure.

Here too you could use the designation “1. June,” but then you talk about distributing the money through 2027 — $21 million in 2026 and $42 million in 2027. Does a new regime really want to pay off the Rodgers bill by 2027?

They could renegotiate the $35 million option bonus if they want to keep him, but that would just shove more money into the back end of the deal – hardly ideal. How about a direct pay cut? Rodgers voluntarily took a $34 million pay cut last year, so it’s unlikely he’ll want to give back any more money.

Rodgers’ future will be a topic of conversation in the coming months. He said he wasn’t sure if he would play next year. If he does, the Jets will be his first option.

“I’m open to anything and tied to nothing,” Rodgers said.

Maybe so, but that massive cap hit is tied to him.

2. Let the search begin: Owner Woody Johnson’s decision to hire an outside firm led by someone he fired 12 years ago – former Jets general manager Mike Tannenbaum – was predictably met with skepticism. It’s a strange optic, but the way the Jets are approaching their search for general managers and head coaches has merit – at least in theory.

Apparently, despite his 25 years as an owner, Johnson doesn’t feel comfortable conducting his own searches. Tannenbaum and his partner in this project, former Minnesota Vikings GM Rick Spielman, are two front office veterans who work together at The 33rd Team, a media and technology company that will conduct research and help identify candidates .

Spielman gave insight into the process on an NFL podcast on CBS. He said he has already interviewed “a lot of the guys” who will end up on their recommendation list for the Jets. He met her through the NFL’s Coach Accelerator Program (designed to promote inclusion) and through his previous work as a consultant. In addition to assisting the Washington Commanders in their search over the past year, he has “interviewed” potential candidates who sought his feedback.

“I’m just a scout in the corner,” Spielman said of his Jets’ assignment. “I will express my opinion. I will help with the interviews. I’m going to talk to a lot of sources out there, gather a lot of information and pass the information on to the Jets.”

Johnson took a similar approach in 2015, hiring former GMs Charley Casserly and Ron Wolf as consultants. Casserly exerted considerable influence in the process, and they eventually hired two people who had ties to him – coach Todd Bowles and GM Mike Maccagnan.

The end result? Four seasons, no playoff appearances.

The line between information gatherer and influencer can become blurry, especially since Johnson is known to allow outside voices to influence his thinking. In this case, the Jets say Tannenbaum/Spielman will serve in a “support role” and not advisory positions.

In the end, Johnson will make the final decisions, according to the Jets. Of course, he will select from the candidates recommended by Tannenbaum/Spielman.

3. Captain Fantastic: Rodgers won’t have a chance in the selection process, and it doesn’t sound like he’s looking for a place at the table. “I’m always available if my opinion is needed, but I’ll concentrate on playing now,” he said. “When I get drawn into these conversations, it’s fantastic. If not, that’s fantastic too.”

4th Red Shirt Year: Quarterback Jordan Travis remains the mystery man of the 2024 draft class. That horrific ankle injury from college remains a concern as he has suffered “some setbacks” and is “still dealing with a few things,” interim coach Jeff Ulbrich said.

The former Florida State star, drafted in the fifth round, was ineligible to practice or play this season when he was placed on the reserve/non-football injured list in August. The hope was that he could do some work on the side, but that was limited. It has turned into a year of classroom learning.

When they drafted him, the Jets thought he would be ready this season.

5. Reddick tries to recover: Edge rusher Haason Reddick cost himself millions with his long persistence. Now his slow start is costing himself even more money. His revised one-year contract includes a sack incentive, but he needs eight sacks to earn a $500,000 bonus. Reddick only has 0.5 sacks in four games, so reaching 7.5 sacks in the last six games might be difficult.

He’s on track to earn a 40% playing time bonus – a bonus of $791,628. Combined with his base salary, his compensation will increase to $9.5 million in 2024. Before the holdout, he was scheduled to make $14.5 million. Taking into account fines and lost wages, Reddick will likely suffer a loss of at least $7 million due to the restraint.

Ulbrich praised Reddick, saying, “His efforts are off the charts.” His presence has allowed the Jets to blitz less often, but pass-rush production hasn’t improved with him.

In seven games without Reddick, her sack rate and pressure percentage were 9.3% and 39.2%, respectively. In four games with him, according to Next Gen Stats, they are 9.4% and 36.0%.

6. Burn the script: It’s likely that neither the Jets nor the Seattle Seahawks will score a touchdown in their home opener on Sunday when the two face off. After all, they are one of the seven teams that didn’t make it.

This is a big problem for the Jets, who are averaging an NFL-worst 15.5 yards on their first drive, according to ESPN Research. Over the last five seasons, the only teams with worse grades were the 2023 Jets (14.7) and 2021 Titans (15.4).

7. Leo is back: One of former GM Joe Douglas’ first big moves was to trade defensive tackle Leonard Williams and his expiring contract to the New York Giants at the 2019 trade deadline. The move made sense as the Jets were facing a major rebuild. They received two draft picks, a 2020 third-rounder (safety Ashtyn Davis) and a 2021 fifth-rounder (nickel back Michael Carter II).

Meanwhile, the 30-year-old Williams had a good run with the Giants and is now thriving with the Seahawks. He’s done quite well for himself – $130 million in career earnings, according to Spotrac.

8. Geno is back: This won’t be former 2013 second-round pick Geno Smith’s first start against the Jets — he beat them in Seattle in 2022 — but it will be his first against them at MetLife Stadium, his former home. It has already been nine years since that infamous locker room riot when Smith was punched in the face by his former teammate IK Enemkpali. Time flies.

9. Not a fun day: Sunday wasn’t exactly good for the Jets – a record of 1-6. A silver lining: Four of the losses were by six points or less.

10. The Last Word: “I’ve never seen people get fired, so I’m a newbie in this area, especially when it’s some people who have put millions of dollars in my pocket so that I can change my life and that of my family.” – Cornerback Sauce Gardner on the firings of Douglas and coach Robert Saleh.

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