College Football Playoff Series Prediction

College Football Playoff Series Prediction

Forty names, games, teams and details that make headlines in college football (flag plants and fist bumps sold separately throughout our great country).

A season of surprises and attrition has brought us to this point, with Selection Sunday just a week away: There’s only one left 11 Teams Worthy of a 12-Team College Football Playoff (1). So many defeats, so many shaky performances, so much uncertainty and volatility – we are missing a complete group of competitors. The bubble is a confused mass of mediocrity.

To put it this way: Teams that lost to the Northern Illinois Huskies and Arkansas Razorbacks are banned from the field. Teams that lost to the Cincinnati Bearcats, Vanderbilt Commodores, Kentucky Wildcats and Kansas Jayhawks could join them.

In anticipation of more shenanigans from the CFP selection committee on Tuesday night, the Dash has locked out the following teams.

The Big Ten includes four: the Oregon Ducks, the Penn State Nittany Lions, the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Indiana Hoosiers. (Indiana’s time in the bubble was supposed to have ended this weekend. But that remains to be seen.)

The Southeastern Conference consists of three members: the Texas Longhorns, the Georgia Bulldogs and the Tennessee Volunteers.

The Atlantic Coast Conference has one: its champion, either the SMU Mustangs or the Clemson Tigers. After the automatic bid, things get very interesting.

The Big 12 has one: its champion, either the Arizona State Sun Devils or the Iowa State Cyclones.

The Mountain West Champion: Either the Boise State Broncos or UNLV Rebels automatically get the Group of 5 unless something really weird happens.

And the independent Notre Dame Fighting Irish are also there.

The diverse array of 12th-place contenders includes a second-place ACC team, a collection of three-loss SEC teams and possibly a Big 12 Hail Mary makeover of the BYU Cougars. Let’s look at them all:

The Miami Hurricanes (2). Status: 10-2 overall, 6-2 in the ACC, no more games to play. Last week’s CFP rankings: No. 6. Best wins: away over the Florida Gators (7-5) and Louisville Cardinals (8-4), at home over the Duke Blue Devils (9-3). Losses: on the road to the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (7-5) and Syracuse Orange (9-3). Neither was in the last CFP Top 25, but Syracuse could and should be this week. Sagarin Strength of Schedule: #61.

The Canes Cristobal scored the final score Saturday at Syracuse, trailing by seven in the final four minutes and facing a four-and-goal from the Orange 10-yard line. Mario Cristobal, whose in-game coaching remains a weekly adventure, opted to kick a field goal to make the score 42-38, relying on his well-strung defense to get a stop and his gave the team another chance. This did not happen as Syracuse ran the final eight plays to close out the game. That loss knocked Miami out of the ACC Championship Game, leaving that spot to Clemson, who took the chance as a bidder. So now the Canes are sitting on the bubble.

SMU (3). Status: 11-1 overall, 8-0 in the ACC, playing Clemson for the league title on Saturday. Last week’s CFP rankings: No. 9. Best wins: on the road against Louisville and Duke, at home against the TCU Horned Frogs (8-4) and Pittsburgh Panthers (7-5). Loss: at home to No. 19 BYU (10-2). Sagarin Strength of Schedule: #63.

The Mustangs can of course accept the automatic bid on Saturday evening. But if they don’t, they’ll be heavily considered as a major team – perhaps even knocking out fellow ACC aspirant Miami. SMU is 8-0 with Kevin Jennings as its starting quarterback and a three-point loss to BYU is negligible. The Mustangs are one of only two power conference teams, along with Oregon, to remain undefeated in league play and one of only four in the entire FBS (Boise State and the Army Black Knights are the others).

The Alabama Crimson Tide (4). Status: 9-3 overall, 5-3 in the ACC, no more games to play. Last week’s CFP rankings: No. 13. Best wins: home vs. No. 7 Georgia Bulldogs (10-2) and No. 15 South Carolina Gamecocks (9-3), away vs. LSU Tigers (8-4) . Losses: at Vanderbilt (6-6), no. 8 Tennessee (10-2) and Oklahoma Sooners (6-6). Sagarin Strength of Schedule: #14.

The Zombie Tide remain undead despite all attempts to exclude themselves from consideration. Just like last year, we’re at a point where they may slip into the field at the expense of an ACC team. Alabama has good wins but two terrible losses – they never led against Vandy and were defeated by three touchdowns by Oklahoma. They are the epitome of the SEC’s strict schedule argument for inclusion.

The Mississippi Rebels (5). Status: 9-3 overall, 5-3 in the SEC, no more games to play. Last week’s CFP rankings: No. 14. Best wins: home over No. 7 Georgia, away over No. 15 South Carolina. Losses: home to Kentucky (4-8), away to LSU and Florida. Sagarin Strength of Schedule: #46.

Given the nature of its losses (particularly the Kentucky debacle), Ole Miss probably has the weakest hand in the SEC bubble trio. But it also dominated Georgia and beat South Carolina in Columbia, meaning it’s very difficult to place the Gamecocks ahead of the Rebels with the same record. On the other hand, it is very difficult to place the Rebels ahead of Miami given their results against common opponent Florida.

South Carolina (6). Status: 9-3 overall, 5-3 in the SEC, no more games to play. Last week’s CFP rankings: No. 15. Best wins: away against No. 12 Clemson (9-3), home over No. 20 Texas A&M (8-4), home over No. 21 Missouri Tigers (9 –3). Losses: at home to LSU and Ole Miss, on the road to Alabama. Sagarin Strength of Schedule: #17.

There isn’t a hotter team in the sport outside of Oregon. The Gamecocks have rattled off six straight wins, half of them against ranked opponents. Unfortunately, this is a hard working sport that can’t ignore what happened in the first half of the season – especially when two of their losses came against teams ranked directly ahead of them. Beating Clemson on the road could give them a chance to jump ahead of Alabama and Ole Miss, but that’s still a tough argument.

BYU (7). Status: 10-2, 7-2 in Big 12, no more games to play. Last week’s CFP ranking: No. 19. Best wins: on the road against No. 9 SMU and the Baylor Bears (8-4). Losses: at home against Kansas (5-7), on the road against Arizona State (10-2). Sagarin Strength of Schedule: #37.

It’s hard to imagine BYU’s victory over Houston, 4-8, passing everyone else that would need to make the playoffs. But the wins over SMU and Baylor only gained strength in the second half of the season, and a loss to ASU is certainly no shame. BYU is worthy of a reevaluation by the committee this week against the aforementioned competition.

And then there is the team that could make this argument for 12th place invalid: Clemson (8). The Tigers won’t make the playoffs unless they beat SMU on Saturday night in Charlotte. When they do that, there are several side effects.

As mentioned, this could lead to ACC-on-ACC crime: A Clemson bid could knock either Miami or SMU off the field. Or it could be the firewall against a fourth SEC team, even though the Tigers lost 0-2 against that league (Georgia and South Carolina). But it could also cost the ACC a first-round bye, drop its champion to the lowest of the five automatic bids and leave it facing a guaranteed road game in the first round. (If Boise State wins the Mountain West, it could move into the top four with a 12-1 record.)

This much is certain: the often superfluous Tuesday rankings will actually matter this week. The order in which the committee ranks Miami, the three SEC teams and BYU shouldn’t change after that, as none of them have games left. We could then know who the 12th team is…until a Clemson complication.

Two of the first-round hosts seem all but certain at this point: Notre Dame (9) and the Big Ten title game losers (10) between Oregon and Penn State. The other two could be the loser of the SEC title game — either Texas or Georgia — and a resume battle between Tennessee and Ohio State.

Ohio State and Tennessee have similar resumes. Both are 10-2 with a tough loss – the Buckeyes to 7-5 Michigan, the Volunteers to 6-6 Arkansas. Ohio State has a Sagarin schedule strength of No. 52, while Tennessee is No. 53. The Dash would give Ohio State an advantage based on a better signature win (at Penn State vs. home vs. Alabama) and a better loss (by a point at Oregon vs. 14 at Georgia).

Regardless of which 100,000-seat venue hosts the game, a first-round game between Tennessee and Ohio State, No. 8 vs. No. 9, could be on the horizon. That would be a juicy deal unless the Buckeyes are completely worn out after Saturday’s debacle at The Horseshoe.

Here’s how the Dash would make the playoffs if today were Selection Sunday:

  1. Oregon (Big Ten champion, automatic bid)
  2. Texas (SEC champion, automatic bid)
  3. SMU (ACC champion, automatic bid)
  4. Boise State (Group 5 champion, automatic bid)
  5. Notre Dame (large selection)
  6. Penn State (overall selection)
  7. Georgia (overall selection)
  8. Ohio State (overall selection)
  9. Tennessee (overall selection)
  10. Indiana (overall selection)
  11. Arizona State (Big 12 champion, automatic bid)
  12. Miami (large selection)

On the bladder: BYU, Alabama, Mississippi, South Carolina, Army.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *