Justin Herbert OVER 19.5 rushing yards (-125)

Loza: The strength of Herbert’s arm was a much-debated topic. However, his sneaky agility has gone under the radar. The Bolts quarterback currently ranks in the top 15 in rushing at the position, averaging over four carries and 19 rushing yards per contest. His rushing production has increased significantly of late, as the 26-year-old has rushed for at least 29 yards in four of his last five appearances. This trend is likely to continue on Sunday in Atlanta. The Falcons have allowed the sixth-most rushing yards to opposing QBs, giving up an average of 28 rushing yards per contest to the position. In what is expected to be a close game with a lead of just one point and the absence of JK Dobbins, Herbert’s full range of skills will be on full display. Expect him to use his arms and legs to great effect on Sunday.

Matthew Stafford OVER 249.5 passing yards and Kyren Williams scores a TD (JA +150)

Loza: Stafford ranks fifth among QBs in pass attempts (35 per game) and sixth among QBs in passing yards per game (254.5). His numbers have increased significantly since having both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back on the field, as he has averaged over 280 passing yards per game since Week 8. In fact, Stafford has averaged well over 250 passing yards per game in four of his last five games. The only exception is the Week 12 matchup against Philadelphia. The Eagles’ pass rush is undoubtedly wilder than the Saints’, meaning Stafford should have more time and space to get the ball downfield in Week 13.

New Orleans’ defense also has difficulty stopping the run, allowing 5.0 YPC to opposing rushers. The Saints have given up four rushing scores to the RBs in the team’s last three games. Williams’ TDs have declined since the aforementioned returns of Kupp and Nacua, but he found the end zone last week and given the matchup, he’s a good bet to cross the goal line again in Week 13.

Running back props

Bucky Irving OVER 76.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-118)

Double: Despite the committee status in Tampa, Irving has been crushing it lately. He has recorded at least 77 scrimmage yards in five of the last six games, the lone exception being against a stout Chiefs defense, and he has scored in four of those games. He also owes a large part of this success to his work in the passing game, as he had at least three balls in five games in a row. He clearly appears to be the future of this Bucs backfield, and Todd Bowles hasn’t been shy about using the rookie this year.

Even with Rachaad White splitting time, Irving has found his own way to perform, and I don’t expect that to change against this Panthers team that has given up the second-most rushing yards this year. Additionally, Carolina was middle-of-the-pack in the passing game against the RBs and failed to post outstanding metrics in either direction when the RBs were targeted. With Tampa continuing to push to get into the playoffs, relying on its young rookie, and having a top-notch defense, I expect Irving to reach the 77-yard mark again for the sixth time in seven games.

Rachaad White ANYTIME TD (+130)

Double: I know I just talked about Irving making it, but let’s not forget White, who was pretty productive himself. White has found the end zone in every single game since Week 7 and now faces a Panthers defense that has given up 17 rushing touchdowns so far this year, the second-most in the NFL. They also gave up two more touchdowns to the RBs, which bodes well for White and his talent for finding the end zone.

After going scoreless in his first five games this year, he has scored six touchdowns in the last five games. This play is good for White to keep the touchdown train going. He gets a lot of work, especially in the passing game, but he also had five goal-to-go rush attempts in the last four weeks. I can’t tell you if he would find the end zone on the ground or in the air, but he should continue his touchdown streak in Week 13.

James Cook ANYTIME TD (-135)

Double: If you had told me at the beginning of the year that the San Francisco 49ers would allow rushers to find the end zone at the third-highest rate this year, I would have thought you were crazy. But that’s exactly where we’re at, as the Niners have given up 16 touchdowns on the ground and two more touchdowns through the air to running backs this year. Meanwhile, we’ve seen a complete role reversal in Buffalo: James Cook is leading the Bills in rushing touchdowns this year, not Josh Allen. Just a year ago, Allen had 15 rushing scores, much to the chagrin of fantasy football managers. This year was a much different story as Cook ranked third among RBs with 11 total touchdowns. Since Cook’s cooking and the 49ers’ defense have nothing on the team we expected this year, give me Cook for an anytime touchdown in this game.

Wide receiver props

Tee Higgins OVER 69.5 Rec Yards (-125)

Loza: When healthy, Higgins played like a man possessed (or at least was obsessed with securing his next deal) and managed 75 receiving yards in each of his last four games. Interestingly, Higgins has outscored Ja’Marr Chase 57-51 in the duo’s six games together. Higgins could lead the corps once again, with Joey Porter Jr. likely shadowing Chase. After shooting 9-148-1 and fully rested, Higgins has momentum on his side heading into the division championship on Sunday. With a projected point total of 47.5, there should be plenty of opportunities for the team’s No. 2 WR to shine, so a 5-70-0 stat line is well within reach.

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