The Toronto Raptors return home after Thanksgiving in South Beach and have a return game tonight against the in-form Miami Heat.

Toronto lost 121-111 on Friday despite leading at halftime, and my Heat vs. Raptors predictions suggest another high-profile clash here as the hosts look to build on their strong performances from last year Time to pick up at the Scotiabank Arena.

Check out my NBA picks for this game on December 1st, including more playmaking from Scottie Barnes.

Raptors vs Heat prediction

My Raptors picks
Over 221.5 (-110 at PointsBet Canada)

My analysis
With a road record of 1-11, the Toronto Raptors are still struggling to muster four solid quarters on the road, but things are different at home, where Toronto is 4-4 and appears capable of putting together a play- to fight for in-place.

I’m counting on both teams to continue their great performance from Friday’s game, where the Raptors had a 54% advantage (despite only making 11 three-pointers) and the Miami Heat knocked down 21 3-pointers.

That appears to be a formula for the over, which has been a win in 11 of Toronto’s last 13 home games. It has also struck in the last three meetings between these teams.

The hosts will once again be without their regulars Immanuel Quickley and Gradey Dick, but RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes and Jakob Poeltl combined for 73 points on Friday to keep the score close, and Darko Rajakovic’s men have turned to a “next man up.” ” set. Mindset.

I’m also betting on the Toronto bench to move up. This reserve unit contributed 34 points in the Raptors’ last home game against the Minnesota Timberwolves, and the energy of Jonathan Mogbo and Chris Boucher paves the way for valuable second-chance points.

With Miami facing a barrage of 3-pointers, the over is always within reach. The Heat rank seventh in the NBA this year in 3-point percentage (37.9%) while attempting 40 per game, and they have a better bill of health with both Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier back in the lineup.

Although the Raptors’ offense has exceeded expectations so far, the home team’s defense is in the bottom third of the league in points allowed – and that’s just another reason here, with an O/U line of 221.5 the over to choose.

Raptors vs. Heat, same game

Over 221.5

Scottie Barnes Over 6.5 assists

Jimmy Butler Over 18.5 points

Until Quickley returns, look for Barnes to continue to take control of a Toronto team that relies heavily on his playmaking. He has had seven or more assists in five of his last six appearances and was spectacular on Friday with a season-high 10 dimes.

The Heat have a few subpar defenders in their regular rotation and that should allow Barnes to smooth out mismatches before finding sharpshooters like Ochai Agbaji and Jamison Battle. I jump at that 6.5 O/U line on the over.

I’ll also take the over for the Butler scoring prop after he scored 26 points on 8-for-14 shooting against the Raptors in their matchup at the Kaseya Center.

He has scored 23 or more points in four of his last five contests – and 30 or more in two of them – and his point total is bolstered by frequent trips to the charity club. He’s made 51 free throws in his last five games, and that trend should continue tonight against an error-prone Toronto defense.

Learn how to place a bet in the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

Raptors vs Heat odds

Raptors vs Heat live odds

Raptors vs. Heat opening odds

• Spread: Toronto +4.5 | Miami -4.5
• Money line: Toronto +164 | Miami -188
• Over/Under: Over 222 | Under 222

Odds courtesy of PointsBet Canada

Raptors vs. Heat spread and over/under analysis

• The Raptors are an impressive 13-7 ATS this season, but the Heat come into this as 4.5-point favorites after winning four of their last five games.
• Miami is 4-4 on the road this year, while Toronto has won consecutive home games.
• Expect plenty of early points as the Raptors have taken the 1Q over in 18 of their last 24 games at Scotiabank Arena.
• The over is 6-4 in the Heat’s last 10 games and has been a winner in four of its last six games on the road at Kaseya Center.

Raptors vs Heat trend

With some frantic finishing, the Raptors have reached the 4Q over in 17 of their last 22 games at Scotiabank Arena. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Heat.

How to watch Raptors vs. Heat

Current Raptors vs. Heat injuries

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