The fifth ranking of the 2024 College Football Playoff will be announced tonight, Tuesday, November 30, and things are bound to change after seven teams lost in the rankings last weekend. Before the CFP committee announces the next rankings, I predict where the top 25 teams will finish, along with the rankings.

Note that these are my predictions and mine alone. I look at head-to-head results, strength of schedule, games against ranked teams and more to help rank the teams the way I think the CFP committee will. You can read the official minutes of the GFP Committee here.

2024 College Football Playoff Ranking Predictions: Fifth Top 25 Predictions

These predictions are for Sunday, December 1st.

1. Oregon (12-0) LW: 1 – Oregon will stay at No. 1 as long as it remains undefeated.
2. Texas (11-1) LW: 3 – Texas won its long-awaited rivalry game with Texas A&M and added a quality win to its resume by moving up to No. 2
3. Penn State (11-1) LW: 4 – Penn State moves up in this week’s rankings after Ohio State’s loss.
4. Notre Dame (11-1) LW: 5 – Notre Dame escaped USC and will likely host a game in the first round of the playoffs and potentially move up to No. 5 at the end.
5. Georgia (10-2) LW: 7 – A win is a win in the eyes of the committee this week. Georgia advances because it won its close game in a week where Miami and Ohio State lost.
6. Tennessee (10-2) LW: 8 – Tennessee secured its spot in the playoffs with a win over Vanderbilt. The Volunteers will be in a great position to host a playoff game.
7. Ohio State (10-2) LW: 2 – Ohio State will still be in the playoffs despite its second loss due to wins over Penn State and Indiana. These wins keep the Buckeyes above two teams with just one loss.
8. SMU (11-1) LW: 9 – SMU defeated Cal and advanced to the ACC Championship with just one loss.
9. Indiana (11-1) LW: 10 – Indiana falls behind SMU by one win after defeating a Purdue team.
10. Boise State (11-1) LW: 11 – Boise State took care of business against Oregon State and will move into the top 10.
11. South Carolina (9-3) LW: 15 – The The order of the rankings from No. 12 to 14 will be the subject of plenty of debate. South Carolina beat a No. 12-ranked Clemson team last week, while other three-loss SEC teams beat unranked opponents. However, teams like Alabama and Ole Miss defeated the Gamecocks outright. As true as that may be, the committee has already shown that head-to-head is not the deciding factor when the Tide, Rebels, Bulldogs and Vols were all in the top 10 a few weeks ago. The Clemson win puts the Gamecocks in the playoffs.
12. Alabama (9-3) LW: 13 – Alabama will become the first No. 12 team to be eliminated this week, being ranked higher than any other Big 12 team. The Tide needs a team that will flounder to make the playoffs.
13. Ole Miss (9-3) LW: 14 – Ole Miss is ranked 14th by the committee and needs forfeits in conference championship games to make the playoffs.
14. Miami (FL) (10-2) LW: 6 – Miami lost its second game of the season to Syracuse. The Hurricanes have fewer losses than the teams above them, but Miami has yet to beat a currently ranked team. The loss to Syracuse knocked Miami out of the ACC championship game and out of the playoffs.
15. Arizona State (10-2) LW: 16 – Arizona State dominated Arizona and a spot in the Big 12 championship game was on the line. The Sun Devils are just one win away from a playoff spot.
16. Iowa State (10-2) LW: 18 – Iowa State won Farmeggedon and held off Kansas State. The Cyclones can secure a spot in the playoffs with a win next week.
17. BYU (10-2) LW: 19 – BYU finishes the regular season with 10 wins but is not in the playoffs as it will not play in the Big 12 title game.
18. Clemson (9-3) LW: 12 – Clemson’s hopes of making the playoffs as an overall team were dashed with a loss to South Carolina, but its hopes of making the playoffs were revived when the loss sent Miami to the ACC Championship Game. Still, Clemson is expected to finish outside the top 15 this week.
19. Missouri (9-3) LW: 21 – Missouri got past Arkansas and will move into the top 20 this week.
20. UNLV (10-2) LW: 22 – UNLV defeated Nevada and will move into the top 20 ahead of a CFP elimination game in the Mountain West title game.
21. Syracuse (9-3) LW: NR – At 9-3 and with a win over a then-top 10 team, Syracuse will jump into the rankings this week.
22. Illinois (9-3) LW: 23 – Illinois defeated Northwestern and remains ranked this week.
23. Colorado (9-3) LW: 25 – Colorado advances after a 52-0 win on Black Friday. Unfortunately, the Buffaloes saw their playoff hopes fade with a loss last week.
24. Texas A&M (8-4) LW: 20 – Texas A&M lost to Texas, but the committee will keep the Aggies’ ranking because Texas is a top-two team.
25. Army (10-1) LW: NR – I have no idea who the committee will put in last place, but I’ll go with Army since the Black Knights are 10-1 and bounced back from their first loss with a win.

CFP🏆: College Football Playoff rankings release schedule

What the mount might look like

First teams out: No. 12 Alabama, No. 13 Ole Miss, No. 14 Miami

Notable College Football Playoff Rankings Questions

How far does Ohio State fall?

Ohio State lost to unranked Michigan, but still has wins over two top-10 teams. The playoff committee already had two two-loss teams ranked above the one-loss teams last week. Could a third Ohio State two-loss team continue the trend?

LAST WEEK REVIEW: Michigan stuns No. 2 Ohio State, Georgia wins in 8OT, more from Rivalry Week

Where do the SEC teams with three losses rank compared to Miami?

Miami is the other top 10 team suffering its second loss this week. However, the Hurricanes don’t have nearly the quality of wins that a team like Ohio State has. Miami will likely fall behind a Boise State team that suffered just one loss and thus fall out of the top 10. The next teams outside the top 10 are all three-loss teams based on last week’s rankings. When comparing resumes, how much the committee values ​​a third loss will determine where Miami lands compared to South Carolina, Alabama and Ole Miss.

Will a win over Clemson be enough to move South Carolina past the teams it lost to?

South Carolina lost controversially to LSU 36:33, to Ole Miss 27:3 and narrowly to Alabama 27:25. That’s two losses to two teams ranked directly above the Gamecocks. However, South Carolina was the only team to beat a ranked team this week. Will that be enough to make the Gamecocks the final team?