In five weeks, the Bucs will know whether this was a bold victory or just a bad omen

In five weeks, the Bucs will know whether this was a bold victory or just a bad omen

The game was exciting. Also annoying.

It was incredibly entertaining. Also annoying.

It was back-and-forth, sloppy and dramatic, but we won’t know the true meaning of the Bucs’ 26-23 overtime win over the Panthers on Sunday in Charlotte until the regular season comes to a close.

Either Anthony Nelson just saved the season or we were witnessing the beginning of the end for Todd Bowles.

These are completely different results, but this game felt so meaningful.

If the Bucs accept this gift of a win and make another push for the playoffs and a possible division title at the end of the season, this will be the game that sticks in the memory. It was the day the Bucs overcame a multitude of mistakes, took the lead in the fourth quarter, lost it, tied it at the end of regulation, missed a chance in overtime, allowed the Panthers to break into field goal Getting into reach, and then a miracle forced fumble, courtesy of Nelson.

But if the Bucs stumble over the next five weeks — or someone saves the Falcons with the Heimlich maneuver — that would be Exhibit A in the case against the head coach. The Bucs had already lost three times in the last play of a game since October, but at least they had lost against decent opponents. This was an embarrassing performance against a soon-to-be 3-9 team with first place in the NFC South at stake. This indicates preparation or lack thereof.

There were three false start penalties. Two turnovers. Random lightning attacks. Low snaps. Forty-six throws by Carolina quarterback Bryce Young and only one listed pass defense by the Bucs’ secondary. A series of sharp punts and a kickoff that didn’t even reach the landing zone gave Carolina the ball at the 40 in the final minutes.

Otherwise, it’s fair to say it was played well.

Either Anthony Nelson, pictured after last week's win over the Giants, saved the Bucs' season with his forced fumble in overtime on Sunday against the Panthers, or we may have been witnessing the beginning of the end for head coach Todd Bowles.
Either Anthony Nelson, pictured after last week’s win over the Giants, saved the Bucs’ season with his forced fumble in overtime on Sunday against the Panthers, or we may have been witnessing the beginning of the end for head coach Todd Bowles. (ADAM HUNGER | AP)

“We talked about it at halftime, we shot ourselves in the foot. We had false starts, we got penalties, we backed ourselves,” Bowles told reporters after the game. “In the second half they showed strong mental strength and played together. We played as a team and did it.”

All true. However, some important details are left out.

For example, Carolina kicker Eddy Pineiro, who missed two field goal attempts. This guy hadn’t missed two field goals all season. His career winning percentage of 89.7 was the best in NFL history. When he missed a 38-yarder wide left in the second quarter, it was his first miss of less than 40 yards in more than two years.

There was also a Bucky Irving fumble that bounced right back into his hands.

And Baker Mayfield picked up a critical sack in overtime that put the Bucs out of field goal range.

“Everything was sloppy in the beginning. Offensively, too many penalties, mental mistakes and things like that,” Mayfield said in a postgame press conference. “But finding a way to get into overtime and get the win is a big challenge for us.”

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It’s true, this is a young team. And the Bucs have had an unfortunate series of injuries at receiver and defensive back. The defense is thin and lacks decision makers. The offense has been reeling since Chris Godwin was lost for the season in late October.

But there is a difference between being beaten and giving away a game. The Bucs did everything they could to give this game to a last-place team, and the Panthers insisted on giving it right back.

One play before Anthony Nelson forced a Chuba Hubbard fumble, Panthers wide receiver Adam Thielen (19) made a one-handed catch to give Carolina its first down at the Tampa Bay 34.
One play before Anthony Nelson forced a Chuba Hubbard fumble, Panthers wide receiver Adam Thielen (19) made a one-handed catch to give Carolina its first down at the Tampa Bay 34. (BRIAN WESTERHOLT | AP)

And yes, good teams suffer inexplicable losses every week in this league. It happens and shouldn’t cause anyone to overreact. The problem is that the Bucs already had some of those. They lost an overtime game to Atlanta, which was inexcusable. They lost in their last game at home to a 49ers team 5-7. They missed a last-minute comeback against the Chiefs and lost in overtime.

Overall, the Bucs were 1-4 in games decided by seven points or fewer before Sunday. Had they lost to Carolina – had Nelson not saved them by ripping the ball out of Chuba Hubbard’s hands in overtime at the Bucs 30 – it would have opened the door for critics to question Bowles’ management on game day place.

Instead, the Bucs have a second life.

They are tied for the top spot in the NFC South with Atlanta and have an easier schedule over the final five weeks. Technically, the Falcons have a one-game lead due to the tiebreaker, but the NFL’s own playoff analysis says Tampa Bay’s chances in the postseason (59%) are better than Atlanta’s (56%).

If the Bucs handle their business and win their fourth consecutive South title, the Panthers game will simply be a humiliating close call that could have been much worse.

However, if things go badly in the coming weeks, there could be a very different reaction in the aftermath of the season.

And the Panthers game will be remembered as a bad omen.

John Romano can be reached at [email protected]. Follow @romano_tbtimes.

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