The College Football Playoff cake is almost ready, which means much of the fear and anger over the last few weeks over hypothetical and projected scenarios has proven to be a waste of time.

Remember when Tennessee was controversially “out”? The Volunteers have taken care of business smartly and are not only comfortable on the field, but could even host a playoff game at Neyland Stadium, which would be epic.

The selection committee will release its penultimate rankings on Tuesday as we approach conference championship weekend. That should give a pretty good overview of what will happen on Selection Sunday.

The caveat: The committee can reverse course and change everything at any time. There are no real rules here.

Nevertheless, it can be assumed that 11 places in this first tournament with 12 teams are taken. This suggests that this is working out quite perfectly, because while there will be rumors about the seeding (Tennessee or Ohio State at 8?), the last team eliminated will have a flawed resume and many moments of regret brought it there.

As far as playoff teams are concerned, 11 spots are likely to be taken:

Big Ten (4): Oregon, Penn State, Ohio State and Indiana

SEC (3): Texas, Georgia, Tennessee

ACC (1): Championship game winner (SMU or Clemson)

Big 12 (1): Championship game winner (Arizona State or Iowa State)

Mountain West (1): Championship game winner (Boise State or UNLV*)

Independent (1): Notre Dame

(*There is a chance that Army could get past UNLV at 11-1 if they win the AAC championship game, but my guess is that a win would give the Rebels the nod.)

That leaves one final spot remaining, and the committee must make a decision between a number of teams, all of which have compelling advantages and disadvantages for their inclusion or exclusion. While that means it’s likely a close election, it’s not the same as a “bad” election.

The possible contenders (listed by file) for this final overall spot are as follows:

• SMU (11-2) if it loses in the ACC title game

• Boise State (11-2) if it loses the MWC title game

• Miami (10-2)

• BYU (10-2)

• Alabama (9-3)

• Ole Miss (9-3)

• South Carolina (9-3)

SMU and Boise State’s argument would be, beyond any comparative standards, at least philosophically quite simple. The Mustangs (No. 9) and the Broncos (No. 11) are expected to be ranked similarly (or higher) again on Tuesday, which would mean the committee removes them both – after the conclusion of the regular season going to be playoff teams.

If that’s the case after 12 games, why should they have to win in the 13th game to still be considered better than the other competitors who had to sit on the couch at home and watch? It makes no intellectual sense to let one team run longer than the others.

But does the committee believe this? That wasn’t the case in 2022, as Ohio State (which didn’t play in the conference championship over the weekend) overtook USC (which did and lost) and entered the playoffs.

So who knows?

For everyone else, it’s like picking your favorite ingredient from a bowl of gumbo. So you like quality wins (Alabama)? Loss of quality (BYU, Miami)? Score margin (Ole Miss)? Number of wins (SMU, Boise State)? Late-season momentum (South Carolina)? Strength of schedule (Alabama, Ole Miss, South Carolina)?

The SEC is pushing hard for one of its teams to earn the final bid based on the strength of the league. In terms of past titles – and NFL talent – ​​perhaps. However, this is a new era of sports.

Conference expansion and the transfer portal messed everything up. Consider that the four major conferences could crown a champion who was out of the league last season: ACC (SMU, American); Big Ten (Oregon, Pac-12); Big 12 (Arizona State, Pac-12) and SEC (Texas, Big 12).

This year, the SEC doesn’t have many impressive wins over other non-conference leagues. Georgia defeated Clemson and Georgia Tech. South Carolina defeated Clemson. The only other wins over Power 4 teams with winning records: Texas over 7-5 Michigan and Missouri over 7-5 Boston College.

The SEC’s reputation is good, but the actual results are inconsistent

Will that matter?

There’s no telling, but the crucial Tuesday will be the order of these teams, especially with the committee pegging a two-loss Miami club. Even then, opinion could swing wildly by Sunday.

However, it’s clear that the teams left out may complain about how they performed compared to those who received the final bid, but they can’t sulk too much about how they got into this position .

Win more games or risk it.

Otherwise, ignore the noise, the first season of the 12-team playoffs is going pretty smoothly.