Thanksgiving box office returns led by “Moana 2” could be the best in years

Thanksgiving box office returns led by “Moana 2” could be the best in years

Auliʻi Cravalho voices Moana in Disney Animation’s “Moana 2.”

Disney

Thanks to a Polynesian princess, a pair of witches and a vengeful gladiator, the domestic box office is poised for its biggest Thanksgiving success since the pandemic.

Disney’s “Moana 2” is expected to hit theaters on Wednesday and gross between $120 million and $150 million in the U.S. and Canada by Sunday. It will be added Universals “Evil” and Paramounts “Gladiator II,” both in their second week of domestic screenings.

Box office analysts expect the five-day Thanksgiving weekend, which runs from Wednesday to Sunday, should easily bring in $200 million in ticket sales and could even become the second or third highest Thanksgiving period in movie history.

“The trifecta of ‘Moana 2,’ ‘Wicked’ and ‘Gladiator II’ is a veritable perfect storm for theaters this Thanksgiving,” said Shawn Robbins, director of analysis at Fandango and founder of Box Office Theory. “The holidays used to be a regular occurrence for major releases that catered to the entire audience, but it has been a challenge for the industry to replicate this in the post-pandemic period. This year is very different, with such a holy trinity of tentpole releases that could anchor some of the best all-round box office returns the holiday season has ever seen.”

The Thanksgiving holiday hasn’t topped $200 million since 2019, according to data from Comscore. The current highest-grossing Thanksgiving weekend is 2018, led by “Ralph Breaks the Internet,” “Creed II” and “Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald,” which combined to generate $315 million in ticket sales. The second-highest shipment during the holiday season was $294.2 million secured during the same five-day period in 2013.

“Thanksgiving is arguably the most important holiday season of the year for movie theaters, as it sets the tone for the year-end box office sprint,” said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore. “The strength of the last few weeks of the year will determine the overall annual box office receipts and whether they are perceived as a win or loss for the industry.”

And Disney could use another animation win.

After years of dominating the Thanksgiving box office with titles from Pixar and Disney Animation, his most recent string of releases has failed to live up to expectations.

In 2016, “Moana” opened over Thanksgiving and grossed $82.1 million. The following year, “Coco” grossed $72.9 million in its opening, and in 2018, “Ralph Breaks the Internet” grossed $84.8 million in five days in its debut. Just before the pandemic in 2019, “Frozen II” increased sales by $125 million to over $130 million over the Thanksgiving holiday after opening the week before.

Meanwhile, “Encanto,” released amid the pandemic, managed to gross $40.6 million in 2021. “Strange World” flopped after collecting just $18.9 million during the 2022 holiday season, and “Wish” grossed a paltry $31.6 million. No Disney animated film was released over Thanksgiving in 2020.

However, “Moana 2” should surpass these post-pandemic releases. The film arrives in theaters a year after the first film was named the most-streamed film for kids and families. And over the summer, audiences flocked to Disney and Pixar’s “Inside Out 2.” “Inside Out 2” opened to $154.2 million domestically and grossed more than $1 billion worldwide throughout its run.

Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal, CNBC and Fandango. NBCUniversal distributed “Wicked.”

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