Smart people in the NFL will tell you that the regular season starts on Thanksgiving.

At this point there is no more trying to figure out what works and what doesn’t. It’s time to emphasize the positive qualities and minimize the negative ones.

Well, we’re rolling through Week 13 and the playoff picture is heating up as the weather outside cools down.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at how things stand at the end of the holiday weekend, updating everything below.

Additionally, All playoff probabilities come from The Athletic’s model.

AFC: WHO’S IN

Record: 11-1, first place, AFC West

Remaining opponents over .500: 4

Playoff probability: 100%

With its win on Friday, Kansas City becomes the first team to secure a spot in the playoffs and can close out the AFC West with a win over the Los Angeles Chargers next Sunday night.

Record: 10–2, first place, AFC East

Remaining opponents over .500: 1

Playoff probability: 100%

The Bills beat the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday night to clinch the AFC East. Now Buffalo travels west to play the Los Angeles Rams before facing the Lions in Detroit.

Record: 9-3, first place, AFC North

Remaining opponents over .500:3

Playoff probability: 98%

The Steelers gained over 500 yards, threw for more than 400 yards and scored 44 points against the struggling Cincinnati Bengals, who are preparing for a long hibernation.

Record: 8-5, first place, AFC South

Remaining opponents over .500:2

Playoff probability: 97%

The Texans took on the woeful Jacksonville Jaguars, who had only two wins, on Sunday and had to hold on for a long time, despite Trevor Lawrence leaving in the first half with a concussion. Nevertheless, Houston won and goes into the bye week in great shape.

Remaining opponents over .500: 4

Record: 8-4, second place, AFC West

Playoff probability: 93%

Led by their defense, the Chargers defeated the Atlanta Falcons despite only playing a short week on the East Coast. Los Angeles intercepted Kirk Cousins ​​four times, including a game-tying pick-six.

Record: 8-5, second place, AFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 4

Playoff probability: 97%

Playing at home on a short week, the Ravens couldn’t beat the Philadelphia Eagles, who were powered by another 100-yard game from Saquon Barkley. Baltimore is now 1.5 games behind the Steelers in the AFC North.

Record: 7-5, third place, AFC West

Remaining opponents over .500:2

Playoff probability: 70%

Denver has rattled off two straight wins and will look for a third at home on Monday night against a feisty Jameis Winston-led Cleveland Browns team.

On the hunt

Indianapolis Colts (6–7): It took until the final stretch of the game, but the Colts defeated the New England Patriots and remained in playoff contention.

Miami Dolphins (5–7): The Dolphins failed to win their fourth straight to get back to .500, losing to the surging Green Bay Packers in freezing Green Bay.

Cincinnati Bengals (4–7): Technically the Bengals remain in the hunt, but after the loss to the Steelers they’re finished. Even a win probably won’t be enough for Cincinnati.

NFC: WHO’S IN

Record: 11-1, first place, NFC North

Remaining opponents over .500:3

Playoff probability: 99%

Because the Lions beat the Chicago Bears on Thanksgiving, they were 1 1/2 games ahead of the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC North and by the same margin ahead of the Philadelphia Eagles in the race for home-field advantage.

Record: 10–2, first place, NFC East

Remaining opponents over .500:3

Playoff probability: 99%

Philadelphia had the main game late Sunday, and the Eagles defeated the strong Ravens, holding Baltimore to 19 points while Barkley had another 100-yard day.

Record: 7-5, first place, NFC West

Remaining opponents over .500:3

Playoff probability: 38%

Seattle’s special teams did everything possible to lose to the New York Jets on Sunday, but managed to overcome the odds as Geno Smith threw for 206 yards and a touchdown.

Record: 6-6, first place, NFC South

Remaining opponents over .500:3

Playoff probability: 63%

Atlanta was coming off its bye week, losing to the Chargers, with Cousins ​​throwing four interceptions and suffering a one-point loss. The Falcons are now tied with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at the top of the NFC South.

Record: 10-2, second place, NFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 5

Playoff probability: 99%

Minnesota is behind Sam Darnold, Kevin O’Connell and Brian Flores. The Vikings won another game, this time in comeback fashion against the Cardinals in the final minutes.

Record: 9-3, third place, NFC North

Remaining opponents over .500:3

Playoff probability: 97%

The Packers are on the verge of making the postseason. The question is whether they can track down the Lions in the NFC North after beating the Dolphins in warm weather on a cold Thanksgiving night.

Record: 8-5, second place, NFC East

Remaining opponents over .500:2

Playoff probability: 72%

Washington was reeling a bit after three straight losses, but the Commanders are still in a good position after defeating the Tennessee Titans on Sunday.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6–6): After beating the New York Giants and Carolina Panthers in the last two weeks, Tampa Bay is now tied atop the NFC South.

Arizona Cardinals (6–6): The Cardinals lost their NFC West lead and a playoff spot last week. They are now a full game behind Seattle after building a 13-point lead at Minnesota.

Los Angeles Rams (6–6): After being shut out by the Saints in the first half on Sunday, the Rams’ offense woke up late with a 21-14 win that gets them back to .500 ahead of a tough home game against the Bills.