Blake Snell is the first free agent in my top 10 to sign this winter, signing a five-year, $182 million deal with the Dodgers, giving the defending World Series champions a potential ace — as long as he can stay on the mound.

Snell entered free agency this winter after a shortened season with the Giants that included 20 starts and 104 innings – the fifth time in his seven full seasons that he failed to qualify for the ERA title – but he also has the best half-season of his career. After a late start to his 2024 season and two IL stints due to adductor and groin injuries, he returned on July 9 and from that point on was the National League’s leading pitcher with 80 innings, 114 strikeouts and 30 walks allowed. He went scoreless in seven of his 14 starts, striking out 38 percent of the batters he faced during that span. While there was some BABIP luck, as no one maintains a .203 BABIP for very long, his FIP in this smaller sample was only 1.77.

One of Snell’s second-half starts was his first career no-hitter. (Katie Stratman/USA Today)

Snell has a tremendous arsenal, with a 95-97 mph fastball with good carry, a plus-plus curveball with great horizontal break, and a changeup that doesn’t have much movement but sells very well, allowing hitters don’t do it I can’t pick it up. Statcast ranked the curveball fifth in the majors last year at +10 runs above average, even though Snell threw fewer curveballs than any of the four guys ahead of him on this list. The Dodgers could be stunned by a pitcher who doesn’t come into the system and needs the kind of dark magic pitch design they use there.

That’s not to say Snell isn’t a risk taker, as he’s one of the least durable starters of his caliber in baseball. He reached 130 innings only twice in his career, peaking at 180 2/3, although both times he pitched a full season and won the Cy Young Award. He only made 25 starts three times.

The adductor strain he suffered in 2024 was his third such injury in four years, and he has had numerous other injuries as well, although he has never had an arm injury that cost him a full year, like a torn ACL. Snell’s receiving a five-year contract one season after he had to sign a one-plus-one-option deal is a big win for him and his agent Scott Boras, but that’s a huge investment in a starter who’s probably only worth 100 or more Earned therefore begins with the contract term.

The Dodgers have exactly no one on their roster who has a good chance of making 30 starts in 2025. While the addition of Snell is helpful – he would help any team in baseball – they still have too much variability in how much their rotation is likely to produce in terms of mass production. Last season, Yoshinobu Yamamoto made 18 starts despite a shoulder injury. Tyler Glasnow started a career-best 22 games but suffered a sprained elbow and has already undergone Tommy John surgery once. Bobby Miller made 13 starts, and we won’t talk about it anymore. Landon Knack managed 12. Their leader in innings pitched and starts in 2024 was actually Gavin Stone, who is out for 2025 after shoulder surgery.

Yes, Shohei Ohtani should return to the mound this year, and I certainly won’t underestimate him, but I don’t think anyone should expect him to make 25 starts in his first year back from his second Tommy John surgery. Even as I write these last two paragraphs, I wonder if the Dodgers won the World Series this year. It seems unlikely.

Snell is the Dodgers’ de facto ace, at least for now, while Yamamoto, Glasnow, Ohtani and Knack or Miller make up the rest of the rotation on paper. Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May could also play roles as they complete their injury rehabs. That means they’re clearly going to get someone else. Maybe it’s Roki Sasaki, maybe it’s bringing back Walker Buehler – whose medicine they know better than anyone – but I can’t believe this will be the only move the Dodgers make in their rotation.

For me, Snell was the fourth-best starter on the free agent market, behind Corbin Burnes, Max Fried and Sasaki. The first two should be dizzying if that’s the going rate for an upper echelon starter; Snell’s two Cy Young Awards also didn’t make the cut, but Burnes has one, both are a year younger than Snell and both were more durable.

Sasaki’s market is limited by the silly rule that considers him an “amateur” because he’s under 25, even though he played in the biggest league beyond the AL and NL for several years, so this signing probably doesn’t affect him at all.

There are still far more teams out there that could use a quality starter like the ones I mentioned or Jack Flaherty than there are in this market, teams like the Orioles, Mets, Red Sox and Tigers, to name a few Some people either have to spend a lot of money to get the No. 1/No. They need 2 starters or miss out on the limited supply.

(Top photo: Godofredo A. Vásquez / Associated Press)