“Boston Red Sox overlook past sins and sign Aroldis Chapman.”

“Boston Red Sox overlook past sins and sign Aroldis Chapman.”

On Tuesday morning, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that the Boston Red Sox have signed reliever Aroldis Chapman to a one-year, $10.75 million contract. This will be Chapman’s fifth team since 2022 and his seventh in his soon-to-be 16-year career.

Chapman will bolster a struggling Boston bullpen that needed a powerful left-handed hitter. The Red Sox bullpen finished last season with a 4.39 ERA, a 24thTh in the league (and the numbers are worse when sorted by WHIP or batting average against them). Chapman will certainly not make the club any younger as he will be celebrating his 37th birthdayTh Birthday before the opening.

Chapman was once one of the standout closers in Major League Baseball, saving up to 38 games in both 2012 and 2013 and 37 in 2019. However, he most recently saved (exactly) 30 games in 2021 and has just 29 saves combined in the last three seasons. Chapman is an enigmatic pitcher who (a) threw the hardest pitch ever (105.8 MPH) in 2010 and (b) continues to throw at above-average speed, but (c) sometimes has no idea where he’s going. His K/BB rate, which stagnated at 5.5 in 2016 and the Covid-shortened 2020 seasons, was just 2.51 last year. And over the last three seasons it has been 2.37. It would be fair to say that Chapman is half the pitcher he once was.

However, his ERA over the same period is 3.68 while his FIP is 3.20, which translates to an ERA+ of 115. And his average fastball velocity has been within hundredths of 98 mph since 2018, so he can obviously still throw it.

By comparison, in his prime – from 2012 to 2016 – Chapman’s ERA was 1.84, his FIP was 1.68, and he had an ERA+ of 217, all with very similar average fastball velocity. So something has changed.

Chapman was last an All-Star in 2021, his penultimate season with the Yankees. The Kansas City Royals signed Chapman for $3.75 million before the 2023 season with the idea that he could be useful trade bait later in the year. Their bet paid off as they shipped him to the Texas Rangers in late June for small outfielder Roni Cabrera and future Royals ace Cole Ragans. Last year, he signed a one-year, $10.5 million contract with the Pittsburgh Pirates (perhaps with the same intent). The Pirates either didn’t want to or couldn’t get Chapman to sign a contract, so they paid out his entire contract, the highest on the team.

In 2016, Chapman served a 30-game suspension under MLB’s domestic violence policy after he allegedly choked his girlfriend and fired a gun eight times in his garage following the altercation. The Chicago Cubs had no concerns about the incident or the player’s morale, as they traded him at the 2016 deadline to break their 108-year World Series drought. It worked, as Chapman was an integral part of the Cubs’ bullpen down the stretch, in the playoffs and in their World Series victory over Cleveland.

It may be that the Red Sox feel the same way – that winning is more important than virtue. After the deal was announced, Zack Scott, a former Red Sox assistant general manager, tweeted the following:

In 2022, before signing with the Royals, Chapman completed 19 games over 36.1 innings. He had an ERA of 4.46 and a FIP of 4.57. His ERA+ was 89, putting him 11% below average. His K/BB ratio was 1.54. For this, Kansas City paid him $3.75 million.

In 2023, Chapman pitched better in Kansas City and Texas, finishing 18 games over 58.1 innings with a 3.09 ERA and 2.51 FIP. Those stats combined with his 2.86 K/BB ratio gave him a 143 ERA+ and the Pirates rewarded him with a $10.5 million contract.

Last year in Pittsburgh, Chapman looked a lot like 2023, completing 18 games over 61.2 innings. But all of its underlying metrics deteriorated somewhat. He had an ERA of 3.79, a FIP of 3.04 and an ERA+ of 111. His K/BB rate dropped to 2.51. And yet the Red Sox believed that performance warranted a $250,000 raise starting in 2024, nearly three times what the Royals paid in 2023.

Perhaps Chapman will find the fountain of youth in the back bay and provide experienced leadership and a strong left alternative to Liam Hendriks, giving manager Alex Cora two hard-hitting throwing weapons and catapulting Boston back into the postseason. Maybe Chapman’s underlying numbers will deteriorate and he’ll be broke or traded for parts at the deadline. For the Red Sox, it’s all about money, and only time will tell.

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