Barring an upset in Saturday’s ACC Championship Game between Clemson and SMU, Alabama could return to the College Football Playoff for the ninth time in the last 11 seasons.

The Crimson Tide were ranked No. 11 in the CFP Selection Committee’s penultimate rankings on Tuesday, one spot ahead of Miami. Under first-year coach Kalen DeBoer, the Tide lost three times, including an unsightly 24-3 loss to Oklahoma on Nov. 23.

The Hurricanes suffered their second loss of the season on Saturday, 42-38 at Syracuse. Based on the current rankings, Miami would be the first team eliminated from the 12-team playoffs as the fifth-highest rated conference champion would be skipped.

With neither Alabama nor Miami qualifying for their respective conference championship games, the Hurricanes appear to have a hard time surpassing the Crimson Tide in the final rankings to be released by the selection committee on Sunday.

CFP Selection Committee Chairman Warde Manuel said on ESPN’s rankings release show Tuesday night that teams not playing in championship games this weekend, including Alabama and Miami, would not have their rankings changed because they are not playing another game .

“For any team that is not playing right now, we don’t have a data point to re-rank those teams’ rankings, and that depends on how we see them in the final week of championship week,” Manuel said. “Nothing will change for us if we evaluate them differently than before.”

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“The teams that are not playing cannot be adjusted compared to other teams that are not playing. However, for championship teams (game teams), we will evaluate that data point to determine if there needs to be a movement in how the game’s performance is going.”

Manuel noted that Alabama is 3-1 against committee-rated teams while Miami is 0-1. The Tide were 6-1 against opponents with winning records, while the Hurricanes were 4-2.

“Both had some losses that weren’t what they wanted out of those games, but in the last three games, Miami lost twice, and so in evaluating that work, we concluded that Alabama came out on top “Miami,” Manuel said.

Undefeated Oregon remained No. 1 in the selection committee’s rankings, followed by Texas, Penn State, Notre Dame and Georgia.

Ohio State, which suffered a stunning 10-13 home loss to Michigan on Saturday, fell four spots to No. 6. Tennessee, SMU, Indiana and Boise State rounded out the top 10.

After Alabama and Miami, Ole Miss was No. 13 and South Carolina was No. 14.

Based on the current rankings, the top four conference champions that would receive first-round byes in the 12-team bracket are Oregon, Texas, SMU and Boise State.

If Boise State loses to UNLV in the Mountain West Conference championship on Friday, the winner of Saturday’s Big 12 championship game between No. 15 Arizona State and No. 16 Iowa State would likely be the fourth-ranked conference champion.

The first-round matchups, based on the current rankings, would be as follows: No. 12 Arizona State vs. No. 5 Penn State; No. 11 Alabama at No. 6 Notre Dame; No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Georgia and No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State.

“It could change, it all depends on the outcome of these (conference championship) games,” Manuel said. “As we have said before, we have great respect for those who compete in these conference championships.”

Miami coach Mario Cristobal argued this week that the Hurricanes (10-2) deserved it because they lost fewer games than other teams in consideration for a final at-large bid.

“We won 10 games this year, and not many teams have done that,” Cristobal said Tuesday during his weekly appearance on WQAM, the Hurricanes’ flagship station. “And in our losses, those losses came on one possession. That’s a completely different record than the 9-3 teams.”

“The awards should go to the teams that actually win the games, not those that avoid losses for political reasons,” Cristobal said.

The Hurricanes have lost two of their last three games — they also lost 28-23 at Georgia Tech on Nov. 9 — and they haven’t beaten a team currently in the CFP rankings.

In addition to the loss at Oklahoma, the Crimson Tide fell 40-35 at Vanderbilt and 24-17 at Tennessee. Alabama defeated three CFP-ranked teams this week: Georgia, South Carolina and Missouri.

“From our perspective, we’re one of the top 12 teams,” DeBoer said on The Pat McAfee Show on Tuesday.

The committee ranked the Crimson Tide, with three losses, higher than two other SEC teams: Ole Miss and South Carolina, which has won six straight games.

If Clemson defeats SMU in the ACC championship game on Saturday, Alabama may not be completely out of the woods yet. Should the Tigers secure the ACC’s automatic bid, the selection committee would have to decide whether to include the 11-2 Mustangs or the 9-3 Crimson Tide.

Iowa State was No. 16 in the CFP rankings, followed by Clemson, BYU, Missouri and UNLV. Illinois, Syracuse, Colorado, Army and Memphis rounded out the top 25.

Army returned to the rankings, while Syracuse and Memphis are ranked for the first time this season. Tulane, Texas A&M and Kansas State fell out after losing last week.

The four first-round games will be played on December 20th and 21st at the home campus of the higher seeds. The four quarterfinal games will be in the VRBO Fiesta Bowl, Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl and Rose Bowl presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on December 31 and January 1.

The two semifinal games will take place on January 9th and 10th in the Capital One Orange Bowl and the Goodyear Cotton Bowl.

The CFP National Championship presented by AT&T is scheduled for January 20 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.