PREVIEW: Iowa MBB vs. Northwestern

PREVIEW: Iowa MBB vs. Northwestern

PREVIEW: Iowa MBB vs. Northwestern

WHO: Northwestern Wildcats (6-2, 0-0 Big Ten)

WHEN: 6:02 p.m. CT (Tuesday, December 3, 2024)

WHERE: Carver-Hawkeye Arena (Iowa City, IA)

TV: Peacock (Paul Burmeister, Stephen Bardo)

RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Bobby Hansen)

MOBILE: Peacocktv.com

ON-LINE: Peacocktv.com

CONSEQUENCES: @HawkeyeBeacon | @IowaHoops | @NBCSports | @IowaonBTN

LINE: Iowa -5.5 (149.5 total)

KENPOM: Iowa -5 (Iowa 70% chance of winning)

The Big Ten portion of Iowa’s 2024-25 schedule – or at least an early preview version of it – begins tonight with a visit to Northwestern at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. On paper, it looks like one of the least stressful Big Ten openers for Iowa in several years.

2023: at Purdue (KenPom 3)

2022: Wisconsin (CP 61)

2021: at Purdue (CP 14)

2020: Purdue (CP 25)

2019: in Michigan (CP 16)

2018: Wisconsin (CP 16)

…and so forth.

However, this Northwestern team is by no means a pushover; While program icon Boo Buie and stalwart Ryan Langborg left the roster last year, Northwestern has plenty of experience – there are four seniors and one junior in the starting lineup. The Cats are 6-2 this season with only losses to Dayton (away). butler (neutral).

PROJECTED IOWA STARTING LINEUP

G Brock Harding (6’0″, 165 lbs; 5.8 ppg, 1.4 rpg, 5.4 apg; 40.0 FG%; 62.5 3FG%)

G Josh Dix (6’6″, 210 lbs; 12.3 ppg; 2.3 rpg; 4.0 apg; 51.5 FG%; 44.4 3FG%)

F Payton Sandfort (6’8″, 215 lbs; 17.8 ppg; 7.0 rpg; 4.2 apg; 45.6 FG%; 35.0 3FG%)

F Ladji Dembele (6’8″, 255 lbs; 5.8 ppg, 5.0 rpg; 0.8 apg; 44.4 FG%; 30.0 3FG%)

C Owen Freeman (6’10”, 245 lbs; 17.5 ppg; 8.3 rpg; 1.3 apg; 59.6 FG%; 33.3 3FG%)

The injury news for the Iowa squad looks a little more promising after a week off – Payton Sandfort’s wrist is improving and Seydou Traore is a “game time” decision for today’s game. Cooper Koch appears to be the only Iowa player completely unavailable for this game.

INTENDED NORTHWEST STARTING LINEUP

G Jalen Leach (6’4″, 200 lbs; 14.8 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 2.0 apg; 44.7 FG%; 40.0 3FG%)

G Ty Berry (6’3″, 190 lbs; 6.1 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 0.6 apg; 27.8 FG%; 31.4 3FG%)

F Brooks Barnhizer (6’4″, 230 lbs; 20.0 ppg; 8.0 rpg; 4.0 apg; 45.8 FG%; 40.0 3FG%)

F Nick Martinelli (6’7″, 220 lbs; 20.3 ppg; 6.9 rpg; 1.5 apg; 52.6 FG%; 60.0 3FG%)

C Matthew Nicholson (7’0″, 280 lbs; 5.0 ppg; 4.5 rpg; 1.6 apg; 63.6 FG%; 0.0 3FG%)

PREVIEW

As mentioned, Northwestern is 6-2, although the best of those six wins is probably their most recent, a 66-61 neutral site victory over UNLV. The Runnin’ Rebels are ranked 107th in KenPom. Not all of those Northwestern wins were impressive, either — the Wildcats needed overtime to hang on Eastern Illinois (KenPom 330) and narrow-edged State of Montana (CP 150) at three.

As was pretty common downstairs ChrisCollinsNorthwestern is once again taking a very sober approach; The Wildcats rank 329th in pace this season. They especially like to slow down on defense, where opponents’ time of possession averages 18.5 seconds (334th nationally).

However, this methodical approach worked well for the Wildcats’ stingy defense. Northwestern ranks 33rd in defensive efficiency this season and has not had any issues on defense so far. The Wildcats are knocking opponents over at a good rate (20.9% of possessions, 67th nationally), preventing offensive rebounds well (27.3% opponent offensive rebound rate, 90th) and contesting shots at a good rate (Opponents have an effective FG percentage of). 46.9%, 73.).

Northwestern was good at knocking down three-pointers (30.1%, 91st) and two-point attempts (47.8%, 99th), and they also didn’t let their opponents get to the free throw line too often (162nd defensively). free throw rate). They have forced steals on 11.8% (69th) of opponent possessions, with six players currently averaging at least one steal per game. While they fight well with punches, that’s not the case block lots of shots; The Wildcats are just 196th in block rate and the only real blocking threat is center Matthew Nicholson (averaging 1.8 blocks per game).

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The Wildcats have been fairly efficient on offense this season (103), despite some mediocre shooting numbers. Northwestern has an effective FG% of just 49.2 T% (204th), fueled by mediocre percentages from deep (32.6% on 3-point attempts, 193rd) and inside the arc (49.4% at 2-point attempts, 214.). It’s worth noting that three-point shooting simply isn’t a big part of the Wildcats’ offense – they rank 352nd nationally in three-point percentage and only 22.7% (342nd) of their total points come from outside the box archway.

The strengths of the northwest offensive? The Wildcats don’t turn the ball over (only 15% of possessions, 57th), they hit the offensive glass well (33.0% offensive rebound rate, 114th) and get to the free throw line decently (84th in free throws). shooting percentage) where they have made 73.3% of their shots this season.

Forward Brooks Barnhizer missed the first four games of the season but has returned and started each of the last four games. Barnhizer has scored more than 20 points per game in three of those games and made 4 of 7 attempts from 3-point range against UNLV. He and Nick Martinelli are by far the two strongest offensive weapons in the Northwest.

Martinelli carried the offensive load in Barnhizer’s absence and still leads the team with 20.3 ppg. He has scored more than 20 points in five of Northwestern’s eight games this year (including 32 in the loss to Dayton), although he had just 19 points combined in the neutral site games against Butler and UNLV last week. He and Barnhizer are also two of Northwestern’s most effective 3-point shooters (60% and 40%, respectively), although they don’t attempt all that many (less than two per game for Martinelli).

Fairfield Transfer Jalen Leach has helped fill the Boo Buie-shaped void in the backfield this season; He has averaged 14.8 ppg and 2.0 apg this season. Leach was solid from beyond the arc (40% on nearly four attempts per game), excellent at getting to the free throw line (over five attempts per game) and even better at converting from the stripe (86.4%). Returning defenseman Ty Berry has been ice cold on offense this season – 6.1 points per game on 27.8% shooting from the floor (including just 31% from deep).

Big man Matthew Nicholson is the fifth regular starter for Northwestern, splitting time with fellow big man Luke Hunger (6’10”, 260). Together, the duo managed 9.6 ppg and 8.0 rpg while shooting 54% Shooting from the floor, her size could create some challenges for Owen Freeman on offense.

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