Film Breakdown: Steph Curry’s rotation change makes a difference, but the clumsy final offense burns the Warriors

Film Breakdown: Steph Curry’s rotation change makes a difference, but the clumsy final offense burns the Warriors

For most teams, including the Golden State Warriors, virtually nothing of note happens in terms of substitution patterns and rotation decisions midway through the seven minutes of the first quarter. Barring injuries or foul issues, teams typically stick with their starting lineup until around the six-minute mark and beyond when substitutions begin.

So it was a surprise to see Steve Kerr – with no one in foul trouble and no one seemingly injured, at least to the naked eye – make a substitution at 7:24 of the first quarter against the Denver Nuggets. Even more surprising: it was Steph Curry who was substituted.

For most of the season, Curry played in a consistent pattern for the first eight minutes of the first and third quarters before coming back after about seven minutes of the second and fourth quarters (win or take). Because of this pattern, Curry’s total playing time for a single game is approximately 30 to 32 minutes. Kerr has indicated that he would like to have Curry around to keep his 36-year-old legs fresh and ready.

Coming on midway through the seven minutes was surprising to say the least. But as the game wore on, given the Warriors’ struggles, the Nuggets’ weaknesses and the fact that Kerr needed to try something new after losing four straight games, it was on the verge of becoming a most sensible decision. With Draymond Green unavailable due to a sore left calf, Curry also had to be involved in crucial moments as the Warriors were missing another ball handler, decision maker and passer – arguably the best on the team.

First, the Warriors’ struggles, particularly on offense: Without Curry, the Warriors were offensively inept. Heading into the game against the Nuggets, the Warriors were scoring a measly 104.6 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time without Curry, according to Cleaning The Glass – good for 29th in the NBA. In the half court, without Curry, they score an equally shocking 89.6 points per 100 possessions in the half court, which is 28th in the NBA. Simply put, the Warriors have an extremely difficult time getting the ball to the basket when Curry is on the bench or sitting out games.

This new rotation pattern should therefore correct this problem, which was prevalent at the end of the first and third quarters and in the first five minutes of the second and fourth quarters. This allowed Curry to rest midway through the quarter and let him start against the Nuggets’ bench without Nikola Jokić in the second and fourth quarters.

This is where the Nuggets’ biggest weakness comes into play: Without Jokić on the court, the Nuggets’ offense was even worse (97.2 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time) than the Warriors’ without Curry; This includes their half-court offense (81.0 points per 100 half-court possessions). It remains to be seen whether this sub-pattern will remain the norm in the future or whether it is an isolated case. If the latter, then the intent was clear: go after the Nuggets’ jugular by putting Curry on the Nuggets bench.

To say the least, Kerr’s adaptation worked. The Nuggets without Jokić were outscored by the Warriors with 19 points. Not only could they not score, they couldn’t stop the Warriors from scoring, and most of those came from the advantages Curry had created. As Curry scurries around and the Nuggets bench mob loses track of his movements:

It gave Curry’s teammates the best chance to score themselves:

One of those teammates was Jonathan Kuminga, who was given the starting spot in Green’s absence. His 19 points surpassed only Curry’s 24; Some of these points came from the attention Curry attracted as soon as he crossed the court:

That pattern proved enough to give the Warriors a six-point lead at 2:32 of the fourth quarter after a hard Curry jumper over Jamal Murray. However, the Warriors scored a total of zero points the rest of the game, with the Nuggets going on a 10-0 run and the Warriors struggling to generate offense even though Curry was on the floor.

One half of that equation was Jokić, who scored 38 points, 10 rebounds and 8 assists in 40 minutes. The Nuggets were outscored by 19 points in his eight minutes on the bench; The Nuggets outscored the Warriors by 23 points in the other 40 minutes, which made the difference. With such an unstoppable force mowing them down, the Warriors had a clear task: They had to make sure they could put themselves in a position to win in the minutes without Jokić and score just enough points when Jokić returned to the field to balance things out and win.

Unfortunately, the scoreless final 2.5 minutes of the fourth period put an end to it. To their credit, the Nuggets made some big defensive moves – most notably Murray’s strip to deny Kuminga an open dunk after Curry’s penetration. Kuminga made the right decision, making himself available with a dunk along the baseline and prepared to make an easy shot. But Murray had other plans:

Jokić himself also made a big defensive play, stopping a Kuminga push that was straightforward, predictable and – to be fair to Kuminga – born out of necessity because Curry was taken out of the halfcourt offense (although a It could be argued , that Kuminga had a window to play a pass to Kyle Anderson, who, after a substitution, blocked the position at the top of Murray.

But the overarching theme of Curry being the only one who can make shots for himself and others on the roster emerged once again. To be fair, Curry missed his fair share of shots down the stretch – but here it would be a luxury for the Warriors to have someone who can take the lead and relieve Curry of that burden. In fact, at this rate, I’d say it’s becoming an urgent necessity if the Warriors want to join the inner circle of Western Conference contenders.

Otherwise, Curry will see a lot of possessions like the one below, where the Nuggets commit multiple defenders on him and they’re okay with letting Gary Payton II shoot an open three-pointer even though he made one before:

When Curry is denied a touch of the ball, it’s up to players like Kuminga and Andrew Wiggins to provide offense. However, both limitations place certain limits on their ability to be a viable secondary creator. Wiggins’ biggest offensive weakness – an unreliable and error-prone handle – reared its ugly head down the stretch:

There are several ways the Warriors can address this issue, the most obvious being a trade. However, the likelihood of a trade happening at this point is slim – teams typically don’t make it happen at this point in the season, and with the Warriors being an organization more reluctant to trigger trades than others, I doubt it will Warriors will change their approach I will address things in the foreseeable future.

The other way: Simply play better, which means finishing better, executing better, making better decisions and reducing self-inflicted mistakes like unforced turnovers. Cleaning up the easy stuff and rethinking the fundamentals (i.e. layups and free throws) will go a long way toward fixing some of the issues that have plagued the Warriors during this five-game losing streak. That’s the unsexy answer, and one most fans probably wouldn’t want to hear – but that doesn’t make it any less true.

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