Models agree that the core of this system will slide away from the coast and will likely produce some strong northeasterly winds and become a nor’easterly. However, higher ocean temperatures will lead to rain in Greater Boston and most of Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Connecticut.

Some snow or a wintry mix will occur at higher elevations in Western Mass. and certainly expected in the north. With this system, elevation will play a big role in terms of snow as the coast and valleys will just be too warm.

A winter storm warning was issued for portions of Vermont, interior portions of New Hampshire and southern Maine from early Thursday through Friday morning. Heavy, wet snow is expected in the higher terrain and foothills, with a depth of up to 20cm in some areas.

This storm system, which developed in the eastern Rockies a few days ago, is moving along a very active jet stream for this time of year that has been pushed further south. When it bends in this way, the air in the upper plane moves at different speeds, often creating air voids. Low-pressure surface systems consist of rising air that fills the void in the upper atmosphere, “plugging” into the jet stream and typically moving over the land where the jet stream is located. And New England is a direct target.

The latest forecasts favor the core of the storm Persecution Only off the mid-Atlantic coast and close to southern New England into the Gulf of Maine – Technically this system is classified as a Nor’Easter. But the storm will do it Regardless of the exact track, avoid a major snowstorm. A boundary low to the north should allow the storm to move more freely east. This will likely advance the storm fairly quickly and build modest strength by fanning out the storm.

Scattered showers will fall across western New England early Thanksgiving morning, strengthening and spreading throughout the region throughout the morning. The wet weather will continue throughout the evening until easing late Thursday evening and Friday morning.

The atmosphere will carry a decent amount of moisture for this system, but most of the snow will fall at higher elevations across New England. The valleys and coastal areas will only experience rain from this storm. However, the rain-snow boundary will likely run along the Massachusetts and New Hampshire/Vermont borders, extending diagonally from the Berkshires through northern Worcester County to southern New Hampshire and coastal Maine. Essentially west of Interstate I-191 and north of Route 2.

Forecast for Southern New England

The latest rain-snow line trend has the line closer to the Massachusetts-Vermont-New Hampshire border and possibly a little further north. I expect a likely scenario of between half an inch and 1½ inches of rain across southern New England. This system will experience heavier rainfall, which could result in one area receiving much less or more rain than neighboring cities.

Gusty winds will spread across most of southern New England on Thanksgiving, with gusts of 30 to 40 mph in some areas. With warm air blowing in from the sea, this is another factor limiting snow potential.

Boston: With this system, approximately 1 inch of rain and windy conditions are expected in the Greater Boston area.

Western fair: Higher elevations in western Massachusetts could see 2 to 4 inches of snow if timing and temperature match. There could be a little more snow in the Berkshires on Mounts Greylock and Everett.

Rhode Island: There is also a threat of a rain-only event in the Ocean State, with showers occurring around sunrise. Rain intensity varies from light rain to heavier showers. It will rain for most of the day until it ends around midnight. Overall, Providence, Pawtucket, Cranston, North Smithfield and south to Newport could see rainfall amounts ranging from about an inch to a few spots slightly above. The south coast of Rhode Island could experience wind gusts of up to 20 miles per hour or more in the afternoon.

Forecast for Northern New England

Northern New England, particularly in the ski areas of Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine, should see a fair amount of snow on Thursday. About 2 to 4 inches is forecast for central and northern parts of Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine. Higher elevations that are mixed could push a little higher, landing between 6 and 8 inches, with some spots even exceeding 10 inches. Southern and coastal parts of northern New England are likely to see rain overnight, with some glimpses of a wintry mix as temperatures drop.

Mountains of New Hampshire: The White Mountains north of Concord will likely experience increased snowfall throughout most or all of the storm’s duration. The higher the altitude, the greater the amount of snow and the more moisture in the atmosphere. Plymouth, Lincoln, Franconia and Berlin will see snowfall totals between 2 and 8 inches. Precipitation will begin mid-morning and continue until Friday morning.

New Hampshire South and Coast: At Concord to Manchester it is likely to be mainly rainy, with possible wintry at times. Derry, Nashua, Exeter and Portsmouth were expected to experience heavy rain and some gusty winds up to 30 miles per hour. Overall rainfall amounts are expected to be between 0.75 and 1 inch. Rain should begin to fall around mid-morning, with most of the rain tapering off by Thursday night.

Vermont: About 2 to 4 inches is forecast for central and northern parts of Vermont.

Regardless of how this storm develops as it moves into New England on Thursday, you’ll want to make sure you give yourself extra time on the roads and don’t rush to your destination. Snowfall in this system, like snowfall in New York last week, will depend on elevation.

Temperatures are sure to drop and get progressively colder Thursday into the weekend. Colder air will move in behind the system as it moves through New England on Thursday. Highs will likely only reach the mid to upper 40s across southern New England.

On Black Friday, temperatures are unlikely to reach the 40s in some places. The morning will be much colder as shoppers head out before sunrise to snap up early Christmas bargains.

Behind the passing system, a deep high pressure area will move south from Canada on Thursday and deliver a shot of arctic air over New England, leading to high temperatures in the 30s by Sunday.

These upcoming storms, along with the 1 to 3 inches of rainfall late last week, are expected to help ease severe drought conditions after an exceptionally dry fall – on November 17, Boston broke a 110-year drought. Record for the driest autumn. High pressure prevailed in the region for months, resulting in extremely dry conditions across New England and an unprecedented number of wildfires in Massachusetts.

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Ken Mahan can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him on Instagram @kenmahantheweatherman.