I’m not sure back-to-back national champions have a must-win game in December, but a win would help turn some current narratives on their head for Connecticut as they welcome Baylor to Storrs tonight becomes.

My Baylor vs. UConn predictions and college basketball picks for Wednesday, December 4th have Samson Johnson playing a big role in helping the Huskies get back on the beam.

Baylor vs UConn Prediction

My best choice
Samson Johnson over 6.5 points (-115 at bet365)

My analysis

The Baylor Bears’ defense could be better, as they are ranked 79th nationally by KenPom, which seems generous at first glance. For the Bears, it’s the same song and dance about how the team defends (or doesn’t) at the rim.

Last year, Baylor ranked last in the entire sport in opponent field goal percentage at the rim. This season, the trend could be in the same direction, as the team is ranked 284th nationally and is allowing a 65% shooting rate at the rim.

With that in mind, I’m picking the UConn Huskies’ best rim runner to go with a modest overall score of 6.5 in Samson Johnson. That’s a feat he’s accomplished in three straight games now, and there’s plenty of reason he’ll do it in four games.

One of Baylor’s worst aspects this season was defending against gaffes and bigs rolling to the basket on a pick-and-roll. They have allowed 1.13 points from such sets, which ranks in the bottom 18% of college basketball.

His opponents also took advantage of it. Tennessee’s Igor Millcic scored 10 points in similar sets against Baylor. Zuby Ejiofor of St. John’s did the same.

Big cuts and rolls have been an integral part of the Huskies’ offense for over three years. The volume of these sentences has only increased since Alex Karaban has been injured and will be sidelined tonight.

I expect the Huskies to run at least five or six sets solely for Johnson’s rim run. That alone might be enough to concede this, but his work on the offensive screen creating second chance chances and goals for us gives us a nice boost.

Same game between Baylor and UConn

Samson Johnson Over 6.5 points

Liam McNeeley Over 2.5 assists

We have two data points without the offensive all-rounder Karaban being involved in the lineup. In one of them, McNeeley had five assists. In the other case, he had zero in a game where Dan Hurley fumbled and UConn won by more than 50 points.

Tonight you’ll see how McNeeley’s assists benefit from the attention he draws. Although he hasn’t exactly shown it, McNeeley is Uconn’s healthiest and most skilled shooter. This extra attention should open up passing lanes for him.

Learn how to place a bet in the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

Baylor vs UConn odds

Baylor vs UConn live odds

Baylor vs. UConn opening odds

• Spread: Baylor +4.5 | UConn -4.5
• Money line: Baylor +165 | UConn -200
• Over/Under: Over 145 | Under 145

Odds courtesy of bet365

Baylor vs. UConn betting trend to know

Connecticut has reached the 1H money line in 31 of its last 37 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Baylor vs. UConn.

Here’s how to watch Baylor vs. UConn

Key injuries from Baylor vs. UConn

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