South Korea’s democracy prevailed. Trump opponents are taking notes.

South Korea’s democracy prevailed. Trump opponents are taking notes.

On Wednesday, South Koreans woke up to the incredible news that President Yoon Suk-yeol had declared martial law overnight. The law was quickly repealed by the National Assembly. Once again, the institutional safeguards against authoritarianism held and democracy prevailed, at least for now.

Still, this quasi-coup attempt has baffled most experts. Despite some early warnings, this was widely considered unthinkable in South Korea. The opposition parties have an absolute majority in parliament, and citizens – although often conservative – are known for their strong opposition to authoritarian rule. There are still details to unravel, but trying to understand this unexpected political upheaval could offer some valuable implications for other countries with a presidential system, including the United States.

Trying to understand this unexpected political upheaval could offer some valuable implications for other countries with a presidential system, including the United States.

A clear factor in this week’s events is Yoon’s deep unpopularity. The president has been mired in a series of corruption and abuse of power allegations since his narrow election in 2022. Calls for special prosecutors are widespread, against both Yoon and his wife, First Lady Kim Keon-hee.

Combined with the disastrous economic situation and numerous diplomatic missteps, these allegations have further eroded his support. In recent months, his approval ratings have generally hovered around 20 percent. Already at the beginning of 2024, political podcasts frequently visited by opposition MPs were simmering with talk of impeachment proceedings.

A more immediate blow to Yoon’s presidency came with the revelation that a behind-the-scenes broker had allegedly manipulated various public opinion polls, potentially influencing the results of primary elections leading up to the recent general election and calling into question Yoon’s fundamental legitimacy of the government. Many Koreans also drew a parallel between Yoon and former President Park Geun-hye, who was – ironically – charged with corruption and abuse of power under the undue influence of an associate.

It is reasonable to assume – although far from certain – that a politically cornered Yoon has decided to gamble on declaring martial law. In the long term, however, such a step also entails enormous risks. In fact, almost immediately after the announcement, 190 members of the National Assembly – including 18 from Yoon’s own ruling People’s Power Party – came together to unanimously pass a resolution calling for the lifting of martial law, just as enshrined in the constitution. So the seizure of power lasted barely three hours before the democratic institutions shattered it and functioned as they were designed.

Fortunately, both the military and the demonstrators showed remarkable self-control. Troops were reportedly sent to the National Assembly to prevent the vote and arrest key lawmakers. But opposition party members and citizen groups effectively resisted these efforts by physically preventing soldiers from entering the building. Any bloodshed could have escalated the crisis uncontrollably. Instead, the most notable act of violence involved spraying troops with fire extinguishers. In some video footage, soldiers appeared to apologize to the demonstrators.

Many of the rank-and-file officers on the ground were reportedly not even fully aware of the details of the orders. Most in the presidential office remained in the dark. Few real coups are carried out with this level of preparation and skill.

The fallout is sure to continue. The president’s interference in the party’s operations during the last election destroyed its cohesion and sidelined several senior figures, including party leader Han Dong Hoon. These members openly expressed their dissatisfaction with Yoon after the election. To put it bluntly: the opposition Democratic Party, with its absolute majority, could have lifted martial law itself. But instead the ruling party joined forces with the opposition. At this point the writing was very clearly visible on the wall. And in the likely event of an impeachment vote – which requires 200 votes to pass – these anti-Yoon members within the ruling party will undoubtedly play a crucial role.

As unlikely as it may seem, a politically cornered president can resort to martial law with surprisingly little initial resistance.

US politicians should pay close attention. As unlikely as it may seem, a politically cornered president can resort to martial law with surprisingly little initial resistance. Presidents have wide discretion in military matters, underscoring the need for constant vigilance and a prompt and decisive approach to corrective action. Bipartisan initiatives—particularly those from the president’s own party—can serve as a catalyst for this preparation.

At the same time, institutional regulations are not a panacea. The military’s professionalism and political neutrality are essential to protecting against such abuses of power. South Korea’s experience this week highlights the importance of maintaining that independence at all levels. Finally, self-control is not limited to the military. While organized citizens have served as the ultimate bulwark against autocratic governments, their effectiveness often depends on their own discipline in avoiding violence.

South Korea’s ability to overcome this unprecedented attempt is a reflection of its democratic resilience. But the details show that it was a shockingly close call – and several factors had to be right. The event is a powerful reminder that democracy is never guaranteed and why it requires unwavering vigilance and concerted efforts to preserve it.

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