The Harbaugh Bowl (Harbowl?) is finally here and we all have the great pleasure of watching these two impeccably coached teams meet. Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers and the Baltimore Ravens will try to implement a game plan that will completely stifle Justin Herbert, Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston and JK Dobbins. It will be efficiency against efficiency, courage against courage, and we should all be grateful to close out NFL Week 12 with this Monday Night Football matchup.

I have already written about a Ladd McConkey prop I love for here tonight at DK Networkbut I’m also at a Quentin Johnston Jr. market everywhere.

Quentin Johnston o50.5 receiving yards

We took QJ1’s receiving yards on Sunday Night Football in Week 11 (set at 44.5) and he just cleared it at 48 yards. Which of course wouldn’t beat that number. But for tonight’s game I’m not too worried about it.

I just collapsed in my Ladd McConkey prop article How From an advanced analytical perspective, this Ravens secondary is vulnerable:

The Ravens secondary is vulnerable

The Baltimore Ravens defensive unit has allowed 88 explosive pass plays (defined by NGS as plays of more than 15 yards), the most in the NFL by a margin of 11. This is a particularly vulnerable secondary that Justin Herbert is going up against. It’s no coincidence that Baltimore also leads the league in explosive passes allowed, with 18.1% of all dropbacks resulting in passes of fifteen or more yards.

That bodes well for our rocket-armed prince in electric blue, doesn’t it? The Ravens also only generate pressure on the quarterback 30.3% of the time when they have four defenders below the league average, and they rush four defenders 76.3% of the time. That’s good for fifth in the NFL. That said, Justin Herbert should have a relatively clean pocket to operate from.

I presented this as a justification for my McConkey prop, but honestly it’s a bit more encouraging for this line from Quentin Johnston. Since Week 7, Quentin Johnson ranks third in the NFL in route depth (16.1 yards). That’s behind only Christian Watson and Alec Pierce, both of whom have had far less success with long balls. Johnston only has one drop in this time, which is a crucial stat for his doubters.

He has two end zone targets and two end zone receptions in that time, just like we noted last week. It’s worth mentioning again because it shows the trust Herbert has built in Johnson.

Conclusion

With the same sample size, QJ1 also ranks ninth in the NFL in yards per target (12.8) and, despite no declines, actually has a slightly negative catch rate above expectations (CROE). This means we could actually see a positive decline in reception.

Johnston can clear that number in one play, but we don’t need that. He’s the most physical receiver the Chargers have on the outside, and he should get plenty of looks from Herbert tonight. This line feels way too low for the Chargers’ outside alpha.

Best bet: Quentin Johnston o50.5 receiving yards

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I’m a Promoter at DraftKings and also an avid fan and user (my username is thegreatdansby9). Sometimes I play the games I give advice on on my personal account. Although I have expressed my personal opinions on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the opinion(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment when compiling their lineups. I may also use players and strategies other than those recommended above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to non-public information.