As a strong cold front moves through our area, there is a possibility of several short, heavy snow squalls in immediate central New York. We will also see lighter to heavier snowfall in parts of our area before and after.

Next, here are our key implications:

Let’s break down the new snowfall accumulation per period and then view the total snowfall map for our area.

From Wednesday night through 7:00 a.m. Thursday, there will likely be just a trace of an inch or two of new snow across most of the immediate CNY region. However, some mountain towns south of Syracuse have a chance of up to 2 to 4 inches. However, by far the most significant accumulation during this period will be over the Tug Hill Plateau and southern Adirondacks, where 4 to 8 inches of snow will lie. During this period, most of the immediate CNY area is likely to experience either light snow or insignificant snow. However, the first chance for a heavy snowfall will be before sunrise on Thursday.

From 7 a.m. Thursday to 5 p.m. Thursday there will be heavy snow east of Lake Ontario. The rest of Central New York will experience clouds, sun and thunderstorms with passing snow showers. There will be one or two additional risks for snow squalls known as “snow squalls.” Again, most of the immediate CNY region will likely only see a few centimeters of fresh snow. However, there should be another 2 to 6 inches or more of snow east of Lake Ontario. Despite the seemingly small amounts of snow, the combination of 40-50 mph wind gusts and snow squalls could create very difficult problems. In fact, there may be a “snow squall warning”!

What is a snow squall?:
–A snow squall is an intense, short-lived heavy snowfall that causes rapid reduction in visibility and is often accompanied by gusty winds.
–Sudden whiteout conditions on slippery roads can lead to high-speed accidents and large pile-ups, resulting in injuries and fatalities.

A snow squall WARNING means the warned area can expect a brief period of heavy snow, gusty winds and the possibility of a quick whiteout.

EFFECTS AND DANGERS:
– There will be a brief whiteout in parts of the warned area.
–Travel will be severely to potentially severely impacted in these areas for a short period of time due to near-whiteout conditions.
– Even though the amount of snow may be light, you should postpone travel until the snow squall has cleared the area.

Thursday through 5:00 p.m. Friday morning it will remain stormy with a northwesterly wind bringing large lake-effect snow showers, severe weather and thin bands of more intense snow over parts of central New York. This is likely to be the period when the immediate CNY area will see the largest accumulation of snow. I expect an additional 2 to 4 inches of snow will fall in many locations during this period, with isolated amounts, particularly in the higher elevations and persistent snow bands, where 4 to 8 inches of new snow will fall during this period.

Now that we’ve explained all that, let’s move on to the overall snow maps.

My overall snowfall forecast for much of Upstate New York through Friday morning:

My overall snowfall forecast for the immediate CNY region through Friday morning:

Here are the latest WARNINGS for much of the Upstate and CNY:
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Here are the latest alerts for the immediate CNY range:
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A more detailed discussion of when the best chances for snow squalls occur and your full forecast can be found below: