The Toronto Raptors welcome the Oklahoma City Thunder to Scotiabank Arena tonight on Sportsnet.

OKC has the best record in the Western Conference at 16-5, but my Thunder vs. Raptors predictions are for the home team.

Here are my top free NBA picks for this game on December 5th with tipoff at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Raptors vs Thunder Prediction

My Raptors picks
+9.5 (-105 at PointsBet Canada)

My analysis

You might call it the Air Canada effect, but the Toronto Raptors have always performed significantly better in the Great White North. This year, the Raps are 1-11 with an average points margin of -5.4 points per road game, but have gone 6-4 at Scotiabank Arena with a margin of -0.1 points per game.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are trailing on the road and boast a net rating of +12.1 at home, while that number dropped to +9.2 ppg in away games. The road trips north can be particularly stressful for teams in the southern United States, especially the Thunder team, which only returned home on Monday after a grueling four away games in seven days.

The Thunder won, but now that they’re a contender, they can’t consistently cover big spreads. On the other hand, the Raps are flying under the radar and have been very competitive since Scottie Barnes returned from a fractured eye socket two weeks ago.

The Raps have won four of seven games since Barnes returned to the lineup, and they beat the Pacers 122-111 in their last game on Tuesday, with Barnes dropping 35 points, a career high. There’s even a chance that breakout sophomore Gradey Dick (18.1 ppg) returns after a five-game absence, and if he’s healthy, that will add even more firepower for Toronto.

Raptors vs. Thunder, same game

Raptors +9.5

Under 227

Scottie Barnes Over 28.5 points + assists

Toronto has shown tremendous improvement on the defensive end in the last month. Through their first 11 games of the season, the Raps ranked last in the NBA in defensive rating (120.0), but they have reduced that number to 109.9 in their last 11 games. The Thunder now have the best defensive rating (103.9) in the league.

Barnes has filled the basket but has also been Toronto’s primary facilitator, posting 8.2 apg in his last six contests and scoring 23+ points in his last three contests. The Thunder are a strong defensive team, but they also play at a high tempo, which will lead to more possession for Toronto and more opportunities for the ball-dominant Barnes to fill the stat sheet.

Learn how to place a bet in the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

Raptors vs Thunder odds

Raptors vs Thunder live odds

Raptors vs. Thunder opening odds

• Spread: Toronto +8.5 | Oklahoma City -8.5
• Money line: Toronto +320 | Oklahoma City -400
• Over/Under: About 228.5 | Below 228.5

Odds courtesy of PointsBet Canada.

Raptors vs. Thunder spread and over/under analysis

• OKC and Under cashed in early, moving the line from -8.5 to -9.5 and bringing the total down to 227.
• The Thunder have won five of their last six games, but have gone a mediocre 3-4-1 against the team in their last eight games.
• The Raptors started the season 7-1 O/U but have stepped up their defense and the O/U has been just 4-10 since then.
• The Raptors sit in 12th place in the Eastern Conference with a 7-15 record, but have gone 5-6 with Barnes in the lineup.

Raptors vs Thunder trending

The Raptors have covered the spread in the first half in 31 of their last 50 games (+10.55 units / 19% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Thunder.

How to watch Raptors vs. Thunder

The Raptors vs. Thunder’s latest injuries

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