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I’ve been a Buffalo Bills fan for as long as I can remember. I’ve been through a nearly 20-year playoff drought – I’ve always said the Bills haven’t been to the playoffs since my bar mitzvah.

Now the Bills are in the midst of a historic run behind future Hall of Fame quarterback Josh Allen, but have yet to win a Super Bowl. That’s why I’m going to keep something I call a diary every week until they win a Super Bowl in February (like the one I’m going to create).

Mostly, this column will be a statistical analysis of the reasons why I think they will make it to the finish line, as well as a hint or two from past memories.

Let’s start simple: The Bills have never had as good a chance of winning a Super Bowl in recent seasons as they do now.

I’m not making this up as a home run – it’s statistically true. The New York Times playoff simulator, as of publication, gives the Bills a 20 percent chance of finally winning the Lombardi Trophy. The Bills’ chances have never been higher at this point in the season since Allen led the team to the playoffs for the first time in 2019.

At the most basic level, the team is 10-2. No Bills team has had a better record through twelve games this century. They also won the AFC East last week; No franchise has secured a division title this early since the league expanded the season to 17 games a few years ago.

Last year, as you may recall, the Bills didn’t win the division until the final game of the season in Miami. They had to fight their way back from 6-6 on the campaign.

The two times the Bills had anywhere near a similar record to what they have now during the Josh Allen era were 2020 and 2022.

In 2020, they were 9-3 before winning the rest of the season. However, this team was incredibly lucky. In 12 games this season, their point difference – the points they scored or gave up – was just 27 points. This year, the Bills are outscoring their opponents by 131 points after their 12th game.

When the Bills win, they usually win by a large margin. Only three of their victories came by a margin of one point (eight points or less). They often destroy teams, like last week when they beat the San Francisco 49ers 35-10.

Their 131-point margin puts them 59 points ahead of first place in the AFC and second in the NFL behind the Super Bowl-bound Detroit Lions.

Now point differential isn’t everything (an example of that is the 2023 Kansas City Chiefs), but it is one of the statistics that most predicts playoff success.

Consider that the team that finished second in point differential at the end of the season was in the Super Bowl more than 40% of the time. The team that finished second based on point differential won the Super Bowl a little less than 30% of the time.

I think most Bills fans right now would take about a 30% chance of winning the Super Bowl.

Of course, we recently saw a Bills team finish in second place based on point differential and fail to make it into 2022. The 2022 squad had a record of 9-3 and then also 10-3 – slightly worse than the 2024 team currently.

However, at this point in the season, the 2022 team was struggling. After winning their average game by 15 points through October, the best they could manage in the five games prior to Week 14 was an average meager four-point win.

However, the 2024 team is making good progress. The Bills had won an average of 14 points in their last five games prior to Week 14.

That stretch in 2024 includes two or more wins over two division leaders: the Chiefs and the Seattle Seahawks.

The bottom line is that the Bills looked really good. I dare say they make me want to scream (and maybe let it all out) over and over again.

The obvious answer here would be for Allen to get a touchdown, but that would be too easy.

Instead, it’s that forced fumble by Taylor Rapp and the recovery by Christian Benford.

Why?

First of all, it impressively demonstrates the “bend, don’t break” defense. The Bills are tightening up near the goal line even as they allow other teams to get closer to the goal line.

Secondly, I’m always afraid that the Bills will lose. At that moment, I realized that the Niners would never get closer to two points for the rest of the game.

Unhappy memory comes in…

I’ll keep it brief. A few years ago, for some reason, I agreed to appear on television late on Sunday afternoons. I thought the Bills game would be over by then.

Instead, I had just enough time to see the Bills put up a great score against the Minnesota Vikings. Then, as I rode the elevator and couldn’t see the play, Allen fumbled the ball at the Bills’ own goal line with less than a minute left.

If the Bills hadn’t fumbled, they would have simply ran out the clock by kneeing the ball. Instead, the Vikings ultimately won in overtime.

It’s the only game in the last 20 years in which a team led with less than a minute left, didn’t need another first down to fill the clock… and lost.

Of course I hope this never happens again.