• RB Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers — over 90 rushing and receiving yards: Jacobs’ profile has only risen since the Packers returned from their Week 10 bye. Over the last three weeks, Jacobs earned the highest overall mark at the position (90.4) with 29 forced fumbles, which was the most for any defender in that span.

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Estimated reading time: 3 minutes

Game overview

Week 14 of NFL games begins with a heavyweight battle in the NFC North between the NFC’s current No. 1 seed, the Detroit Lionsand the current holders of the NFC’s second wild card slot, the Green Bay Packers.

These bitter rivals last met in Week 9, with the Lions earning a 10-point victory – and becoming 2.5-point away favorites – in a game that wasn’t nearly as close as the score would suggest. Once the Lions got rolling, this matchup was out of reach for Green Bay, which didn’t score a touchdown for more than 46 minutes and cut an 18-point lead with less than four minutes to play.

Strong defense, highlighted by Kerby Joseph’s pick-six and a key red zone stop in the fourth, led the way in Detroit’s loss to the Packers in wet playing conditions in Green Bay. This ended the emerging narrative at the time that the Lions were collapsing due to the weather after playing all of their games in domes (the best environment for football).

While the Lions still have a top-three coverage rate in the NFL (75%, 9-3 against the spread), there have been some closer matchups in the last month than bettors might have expected. In November, Detroit posted a 3-2 record against the spread, marking its first failed cover since Week 2.

However, the Packers have underperformed in the betting markets, and despite covering their last two meetings, they have just a 2-4 record against the spread since Week 7 – a far cry from the 4-2 mark they entered the season had set up year. And to complicate matters, the Packers’ current two-game coverage streak is due in part to the 49ers not having a starting quarterback and the Dolphins’ inability to adjust to the winter weather.

Green Bay must contend with the league’s highest-scoring offense on home soil (35.2 points per game at Ford Field) while trying to crack the EPA’s third-ranked defense per game allowed. It’s an uphill battle to say the least.

Despite some stumbling blocks in the betting markets, the NFC North is considered perhaps the NFL’s strongest division, with both teams ranked among the league’s best Power Rankings.

RB Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers: Over 90 rushing & receiving yards (-120)

Jacobs has been one of the more consistent and efficient producers at the position this season, earning top-five PFF grades as a runner (90.3) and receiver (81.7), a credit to his significant improvement scoring from the backfield. This increase in passing has allowed Jacobs to generate 90 or more combined rushing and receiving yards in 10 of his 12 matchups. He has surpassed that mark in his last six appearances, including the last time these teams met when he totaled 108 yards.

That profile has only risen since the Packers returned from their Week 10 bye. Over the last three weeks, Jacobs earned the highest overall grade at the position (90.4) while also racking up 29 forced tackles, tied for the most of any defenseman in that span.

While the Lions maintain a top-10 defense in the EPA per rush allowed, they may have to play without several key contributors in the front seven who were present for the last matchup, including fullback Josh Paschal (knee), center back DJ Reader (Shoulder), central defender Levi Onwuzurike (thigh) and linebacker Alex Anzalone (out for the year).