The 2024 NFL season has produced a different kind of wild card race in the AFC. In past years, the seven-team playoffs have featured races involving most of the conference until the final weeks of the season. In each of the past four years, an average of 11 of the AFC’s 16 teams had at least a 10% chance of advancing to the postseason entering Week 14, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI). With four spots going to the division winners, an average of seven teams have realistic hopes of the three wild card spots.

But by the start of Week 14 in 2024, nearly half of the AFC’s teams have been eliminated. Only eight have a 10% or greater chance of clinching a postseason spot. Seven are above 75%, an eighth is at 27.4% (Colts) and there is a ninth team just under the 10% mark at 8.6% (Dolphins). Unless the Bengals (1.8%) win and get plenty of support, the AFC hunt is pretty clear with five weeks to go. This is a race with four, maybe five teams fighting for three spots.

Subscribe to The Bill Barnwell Show

However, there is still a lot of scope. Three of the four division titles are up for grabs. Placement among the various wild card spots could prove crucial if teams want to avoid the Chiefs or Bills in the opening round of the postseason. And of course, even prohibitive favorites to advance still have plenty of time to play through out of of the race. This time last season, the Jaguars had a 94.7% chance of making the playoffs. They thought they could be home during the wild card round because they would secure a bye in the first round; But after losing four of their last five games, Doug Pederson’s team stayed home and missed the playoffs altogether.

Let’s take a closer look at the five teams competing for the three wild card spots in the AFC. How safe are their places? What do they need to do to secure a playoff spot? And what are their playoff scenarios? I’ll list each team’s FPI playoff odds in descending order, first diving deeper into a team that’s still trying to find its identity after 13 games.

Jump to a team:
BAL | DEN | IND | LAC | MIA

FPI chance of making it to the playoffs: 97.3%

Through the first two months of the season, it looked as if the Ravens would find success through their offense. Quarterback Lamar Jackson and running back Derrick Henry were viable MVP candidates and the most productive players at their respective positions. The Ravens’ often-dominant defense, meanwhile, has struggled to live up to expectations after losing coordinator Mike Macdonald, linebacker Patrick Queen and others from the league’s best unit for 2023.

In the last three games – which also included defeats against the Steelers and Eagles – the team’s strength has changed: