MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth on the biggest fights in the UFC. Today he takes a closer look at the UFC 310 main event between Ian Machado Garry and Shavkat Rakhmonov.

Ian Machado Garry UFC 310 Preview

Magazine information:

• Record: 18-0 MMA, 8-0 UFC
• Height: 6’3″ Age: 27 Weight: 170 pounds. Reach: 74.5″
• Last fight: Decision victory over Michael Paige (June 29, 2024)
• Camp: Chute Boxe Diego Lima (Brazil)
• Stance/Punching Style: Orthodox/Kickboxing
• Risk management: Good

Additional information:
+ Cage Warriors welterweight title
+ Black judo belt
+ Experience in amateur/youth boxing
+ 7 knockout wins
+ 1 submission win
+ 4 first round placements
+ KO power
+ Constant pace and pressure
+ Solid sense of range and distance
+ Precise shot selection
^ Good straight punches and kicks
+ Strong in the clinch
+ Useful wrestling skills
^ Favors attempts from the clinch
+ Improved transition gripper
^ Works well from above

Shavkat Rakhmonov UFC 310 preview

Magazine information:

• Record: 15-0 MMA, 6-0 UFC
• Height: 6’1″ Age: 30 Weight: 170 pounds. Reach: 77″
• Last fight: Submission win over Steven Thompson (December 16, 2023)
• Camp: Kill Cliff FC (Florida/Kazakhstan)
• Stance/Punching Style: Orthodox/Kickboxing
• Risk management: Fair

Additional information:
+ M-1 welterweight title
+ Amateur MMA awards
+ Master of the sports combat sambo and MMA
+ 8 knockout wins
+ 10 submission wins
+ 8 first round placements
+ KO power
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Solid proprioception and accuracy
^ Counter against spinning attacks
+ Excellent clinch punch
^ Cutting Elbows and Brutal Knees
+ Solid wrestling ability
+ Deceptive/opportunistic chokeholds
+ Dangerous ground and pound

Ian Machado Garry vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov Interesting point: Undefeated threats

The co-main event of UFC 310 features a fight between two undefeated welterweight talents.

Although Ian Garry comes from a grappling background, he studied the striking arts from a young age.

Garry is an accomplished youth boxer and possesses solid, straight strikes along the centerline from both stances. Although Garry operates primarily from an orthodoxy, he occasionally switches sides to take advantage of opportunities to be outspoken.

When Garry feels in control, he adds kicks to his punches, punishing all three levels.

Garry may be a little too busy on the back foot for my taste, but his sense of distance and distance finding allows him to progress once he establishes his leading hand. And when an opponent pushes too hard on their power side, Garry seems to have some natural move counters in his repertoire.

https://twitter.com/DanTomMMA/status/1656810250341879809

However, counterpunching seems to be a strong one-way street in Garry’s fights, so the Brazilian-Irishman will have to be careful of what comes back at him when he faces Shavkat Rakhmonov.

Rakhmonov is an imposing Kazakh fighter who has taken the welterweight division by storm. He is an offensive marauder who brings some deceptive skills to his game.

Rakhmonov is a master of the sport of combat sambo and fully understands that offense and aggression are ultimately crucial factors in winning fights in MMA. However, what really drives Rakhmonov’s success is his preternatural proprioception and opportunistic sense, which constantly allows him to take advantage of offensive opportunities.

Whether Rakhmonov is overcoming an opponent’s jab or catching him with a spin kick while trying to dodge, the 30-year-old phenom is rarely short of ideas given his strong propensity for violence at all stages.

Rakhmonov’s head movement and sometimes lax defense leave something to be desired, but he does a good job of calmly rolling with shots and hitting defensive points that allow him to return fire. And once Rakhmonov can get into the clinch space, “Nomad” uses deft wrist control coupled with overhooks to land cutting elbows and brutal body knees.

https://twitter.com/JackSlackMMA/status/1864626268718711016

Ian Machado Garry vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov Breakdown: Potential Grappling Threats

Considering where the biggest discrepancy lies on paper, no one should be shocked if Rakhmonov wants to face Garry this Saturday.

Rakhmonov isn’t necessarily a track and field wrestler, but he has some solid tricks out of the clinch, which he performs regularly.

A tall and lanky fighter, Rakhmonov can steer clear of deceptively strong over-under connections as he tries to get around his opponent to knock him out. And when he can’t connect his hands, Rakhmonov isn’t afraid to opt for single-leg variations to maneuver some surprisingly effective knee-tip finishes on his takedowns.

Luckily for Garry, his background is in judo.

Garry may not be executing Karo Parisyan-style throws in the octagon, but the judo black belt does a good job of maintaining a strong base and slowing opponents indoors.

Garry will use more traditional takedown attacks despite his background, but the 27-year-old appears to prefer attempts from the clinch – which could be interesting given Rakhmonov’s acumen in this area.

Aside from his aforementioned offense in the previous section, Rakhmonov is also an incredibly skilled choke artist, capable of producing more choke points in a Thai hotel room than David Carradine.

From arm-in guillotines to makeshift rear-naked chokes without a hook, Rakhmonov only needs a small window to close the show. And when he lands in top position, Rakhmonov isn’t afraid to unleash a rain of hell from above in the form of Standing Ground and Pound, which is an underused approach (particularly among long-armed fighters).

In Garry’s defense, he has made a concerted effort to improve his grappling since moving to Brazil. Garry has trained with everyone from Charles Oliveira to Demian Maia and seemed to approach his ground game with renewed vigor in his last outing, so I suggest leaving some room for surprises.

Ian Machado Garry vs Shavkat Rakhmonov odds

The oddsmakers and the public are currently favoring the Kazakh fighter, calling Rakhmonov -400 and Garry +300 via FanDuel.

Ian Machado Garry vs Shavkat Rakhmonov Prediction

Given the hype surrounding Rakhmonov and the fact that Garry is the one technically fighting on short notice, I’m not surprised to see such a large betting spread in Rakhmonov’s favor. However, I would warn anyone who invests too much in narrative and completely writes off Garry’s abilities.

As for Garry’s ceiling, I won’t die too hard on any hill, but he has some solid skills that could pose problems for Rakhmonov from distance.

From higher power to a more consistent jab, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Garry harass Rakhmonov early and often in this contest. And if Garry survives some scares and drags this fight out, then he has a real chance to test Rakhmonov’s endurance (since we haven’t seen Rakhmonov in championship rounds yet).

However, the issue can come with high costs – usually in the form of unyielding meters.

As I pointed out before his fights with Michael Paige and Geoff Neal, Garry appears to be struggling against fighters who can counter competently. Not only is Rakhmonov a fighter who can exploit openings second nature, but his kill zone in the clinch is also Garry’s favorite retreat.

Add in Garry’s tilt skirt along the outside of the cage and it’s hard not to see Rakhmonov forcing his win conditions at some point. The choice falls to Rakhmonov by submission in round 2.

Ian Machado Garry vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov start time, where to watch

As the co-main event, Garry and Rakhmonov are scheduled to make their walk to the octagon around 11:45 p.m. ET. The fight will air on pay-per-view (via ESPN+).

For more information on the card, check out MMA Junkie’s UFC 310 event hub.