What the Mets’ signing of Clay Holmes means for the rotation

What the Mets’ signing of Clay Holmes means for the rotation

The Mets’ rebuilding of the starting rotation continues with the newest addition, former Yankees closer Clay Holmes, going fourth Friday.

If a six-man rotation is targeted, the Mets still have two spots available. Those roles could potentially be filled next week at the Winter Meetings in Dallas, and all indications are that the Mets won’t be adding any big names.

After joining Hot Stove for the second time with the club as President of Baseball Operations, Mets have become clear that they are not interested in signing starting pitchers to long contracts. Instead, he takes risks on players who have something to prove and shows confidence in the team’s revolutionary pitching lab and its coaches

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This strategy worked for Luis Severino last season.

After the worst season of his career with the Yankees in 2023, Severino reinvented himself in Queens, relying less on strikeouts and more on contact. He increased his use of his sinker from 2.8% in 2023 to 24.8% and saw an increase in his ground ball percentage (45.2%).

As a result, he enjoyed a resurgent season, recording his first fully healthy season since 2018 with a 3.91 ERA with 161 strikeouts in 31 starts, including his second career complete game. This earned him a three-year, $67 million contract with the A’s.

Manaea was even better than Severino, posting a 12-6 record with a 3.47 ERA and 184 strikeouts over 181 2/3 innings and calling 2024 the “best” of his career. He will secure an even bigger contract than Severino.

It’s the reason new signing Frankie Montas was “sold” to sign with the Mets after a conversation with Severino.

“Severino, he was just telling me how much they helped him physically, mentally, pitching, how to be a better pitcher, you know,” Montas told reporters Friday.

Who can round out the rotation?

The Mets have a few internal options they could turn to for the next two spots in the rotation: José Buttó and Tylor Megill.

Buttó was a natural starter and shined as a substitute last season. An inning eater out of the bullpen, the right-hander made 23 appearances and allowed eight runs in 26 innings (2.00 ERA).

In 15 big league starts, Buttó had a 3.76 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP and 74 strikeouts in 79 innings. He would potentially fit in the rotation as a fourth or fifth starter, but based on what he showed last season, he’s probably better suited for the bullpen.

Megill bounced back and forth between Triple-A and the major leagues last season and finished the season with the best stats of his career. In 16 appearances (15 starts), he posted a career-best 4.04 ERA with 91 strikeouts in 78 innings. His 27% strikeout rate led all Mets starters last season and also tied a career high.

Buttó and Megill still have control of the club for several years, making them cost-effective options to round out the rotation. The former won’t become a free agent until 2030, while the other can test the market in 2028.

Off-market options could include left-hander Andrew Heaney. In addition to playing for the Yankees once, Heaney has shown great strikeout ability in the past, averaging 10.4 SO/9 between 2016 and 2022, and he’s also a once-touted pitcher who still has something to prove has.

In 32 appearances (31 starts) with the Texas Rangers last season, Heaney posted a 4.28 ERA with 159 strikeouts in 160 innings.

Heaney would likely accept a short-term contract in the range of $10 million to $11 million.

Another possible option could be right-hander Jack Flaherty. Flaherty enjoyed a resurgence between the Detroit Tigers and Los Angeles Dodgers last season, posting a 3.17 ERA with 194 strikeouts in 162 innings.

The 26-year-old Flaherty is seeking more money but can also benefit from the Mets and their ability to improve pitchers. A similar length deal to Holmes’s at around $25 million could be enough for New York – it would probably be cheaper than what they would have to spend to keep Manaea as well.

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