College Football Playoff Takeaways: How far will Texas fall if Georgia secures a bye?

College Football Playoff Takeaways: How far will Texas fall if Georgia secures a bye?

By Ralph D. Russo, Matt Baker, Justin Williams, Joe Rexrode and Sam Khan Jr.

The first 12-team College Football Playoff field will be announced Sunday, but Saturday’s Power 4 Conference championship games still have a lot to decide after Boise State made its first automatic bid on Friday. Our experts are here for everything you need to know about the playoff race when the conference champions are crowned, from first-round byes to home games to the bubble debate. Check back throughout the day for updates.

Essential Reading:

SEC: Georgia 22, Texas 19 (OT)

A week after beating Georgia Tech in eight overtimes, No. 5 Georgia needed just overtime to win the SEC championship against No. 2 Texas. The Bulldogs had a lead of 389 yards to 277 and had to rely on backup quarterback Gunner Stockton in the second half after an injury to Carson Beck, but Trevor Etienne’s touchdown run put them over the top and secured their second SEC titles in the last three seasons.

Georgia is a safe bet for the No. 2 seed

Georgia’s SEC championship ends any possible discussion about its playoff worthiness with an injured starting quarterback.

The outrage beforehand spread online when Beck didn’t play for almost the entire second half due to what appeared to be an elbow injury on his throwing arm. Yes, the committee excluded Florida State last year because it lost Jordan Travis to a season-ending injury, but it should be noted: The Seminoles would have been ranked high enough to make a 12-team field.

Although he returned to the field for a handoff on the final play of the game after Stockton’s helmet was ripped off, Beck’s injury uncertainty clouds Georgia’s playoff prospects. But the Bulldogs (11-2) will get an extra week off with a first-round bye and are now almost certainly a No. 2 seed. They begin their hunt for their third national title in four seasons on Jan. 1 in the Sugar Bowl. – Russo

How far will Texas fall?

Texas will likely drop a few spots in the rankings from No. 2, but remain high enough to host a first-round game.

Indiana, Alabama and Tennessee are the teams most likely to travel to Austin. But is it possible that the committee will strictly reevaluate the Longhorns given Saturday’s loss of a lead to a backup quarterback in the second half? Remember, Miami fell six spots last week after losing at Syracuse. Texas has not earned a win against a ranked team and has lost twice to the team it played against this season. The safe guess is that Georgia drops to No. 5 in the rankings, putting it at No. 7 for a possible visit from Indiana in a 7-10 game. – Rexrode

What does the win say about Georgia’s national title hopes?

What a resilient, tough win by Georgia. Aside from the quarterback drama, Georgia won with a tenacious rushing attack (37 attempts, 141 yards) and a swarming defense reminiscent of its win over the Longhorns in Austin in October, with the Dawgs recording six sacks and three turnovers on Saturday .

There are still significant questions facing the Dawgs in the 12-team bracket. How serious is Beck’s injury? And regardless of his availability, what does Saturday’s performance tell us about the Dawgs as a national title contender? The defense, when played to its full potential, is clearly championship-worthy. But Beck struggled before exiting, and Georgia finished the game 20 for 30 through the air for just 136 yards and zero touchdowns.

The SEC crown was hard-fought, but the Bulldogs and head coach Kirby Smart must refine their passing attack to have a chance at another national championship trophy. – Williams

What another loss to Georgia says about Texas

The Longhorns’ formula for success is simple: If they can run the ball, they can win. If they can’t, it’s judgment day for them. Their only two losses were the only two games in which they failed to reach 100 yards on the ground, both against Georgia. Texas rushed for 29 yards in the loss on Oct. 19 and 31 yards on Saturday. The other games where Texas had to go all out to win — 27-24 at Vanderbilt and 20-10 at Arkansas — were their next two lowest rushing scores: 104 yards and 139, respectively.

Texas has a championship-caliber defense and a passing game led by quarterback Quinn Ewers that usually makes enough big plays. But Georgia showed how to shut down the Longhorns: stifle the run game. – Khan


Big 12: Arizona State 45, Iowa State 19

The No. 15 Sun Devils dominated the No. 16 Cyclones, winning the Big 12 title and securing a playoff bid. The score was tied at 10 early in the second quarter before Arizona State scored the game’s next 35 points, turning it into a rout.

Arizona State’s shocking rise

What a remarkable turnaround for second-year coach Kenny Dillingham and the Sun Devils, going from 3-9 in 2023 and last place in the Big 12 preseason media poll to a conference championship in their first year in the league rose. This is Arizona State’s first conference championship since sharing the Pac-10 title in 2007.

Regardless of where Arizona State is seeded, it was an outstanding season for a program struggling to recover from former head coach Herm Edwards’ horrendous, NCAA-infraction-ridden tenure. The Sun Devils secured their fifth 11-win season in program history and first since 1996 on Saturday, with a chance to match and surpass the record of 12 wins in a single season set in 1975. – Williams

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Can the Sun Devils get a bye in the first round?

The Sun Devils entered the weekend ranked 15th by the selection committee. The Big 12 has been in the hunt for No. 10 Boise State for several weeks now, much to the chagrin of commissioner Brett Yormark.

“Where I sit there should be no comparison between us and a Group 5 champion,” he said before Saturday’s game.

The Broncos won the Mountain West on Friday, so it would take a dramatic change of heart from the committee to get ASU past Boise State. The conversation changes if No. 17 Clemson were to beat No. 8 SMU in the ACC title game. That could make room for Arizona State and Boise State, which are among the top four seeds.

Another thing to consider: If Arizona State doesn’t get a first-round bye, the committee could reward the Sun Devils’ six-game winning streak with something better than the 12th and final seed, pushing them ahead of Alabama, which is currently the case? holds the last spot at large? – Russo

Will Cam Skattebo be a Heisman finalist?

Travis Hunter and Ashton Jeanty are the clear frontrunners in the Heisman Trophy race, but Skattebo forced his way into the conversation.

Skattebo destroyed Iowa State. Four Cyclone defenders bounced off him during a 47-yard run in the second quarter before a fifth finally brought him down. Four plays later, he strolled in from three yards out to give ASU a 17-10 lead, and the Sun Devils never looked back.

Skattebo scored twice more and finished with 208 total yards from scrimmage, ranking second in the FBS with 2,074 yards for the season, trailing only Jeanty (2,613). It’s the eighth time Skattebo has reached more than 150 scrimmage yards in a game this season.

Aside from the two frontrunners, you’d be hard-pressed to find anyone making a stronger case for being in New York City. – Khan

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Is Arizona State a sleeper that can make a run?

Maybe even more than one surprise story of the year: Indiana, Arizona State looks interesting in the playoffs given its offensive armament. For this offense, sledding in cold road conditions could be more difficult in the first round – at Penn State or Notre Dame, for example. If ASU gets a bye to a bowl quarterfinal, the fast track should help.

Either way, Skattebo is one of the best weapons in the playoffs, quarterback Sam Leavitt is playing at a high level and providing a run threat, and ASU did well against Iowa State without top receiver Jordyn Tyson, who is out for the season. – Rexrode

Iowa State is out of the playoff race. What’s next?

The loss ended the Cyclones’ playoff hopes and another goal talked about in the program: winning a conference championship for the first time since 1912. The fact that there are disappointments at Iowa State is evidence of that Matt Campbell is already the winningest coach in program history. He has led a perennial group of Big 12 contenders to two conference title games — Iowa State lost to Oklahoma in 2020 — and a program-record 10 wins this season. If the Cyclones win their bowl game (the Pop-Tarts Bowl is a possibility), they will likely finish ranked for the fourth time ever. – Baker

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ACC: No. 8 SMU vs. No. 17 Clemson

Time: 8:00 p.m. ET | TV: ABC | Location: Charlotte

If SMU wins, it faces a first-round bye, while Clemson would be eliminated. If Clemson wins, it will be in a debate with Arizona State for a first-round bye or a road game, while SMU would be in a bubble debate with Alabama for the final at-large spot.

Time: 8:00 p.m. ET | TV: CBS | Location: Indianapolis

The winner will receive a first-round bye, while the loser will likely host a first-round game. Follow our live reporting here.

(Top photo by Trevor Etienne: Butch Dill / Getty Images)

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