Notre Dame playoff scenarios, explained: This is why the Irish cannot earn a bye in the 2024 CFP round

Notre Dame playoff scenarios, explained: This is why the Irish cannot earn a bye in the 2024 CFP round

The first 2024 College Football Playoff with twelve teams is just around the corner.

Which teams make it to the Final 12 depends on what happens on championship weekend. The Mountain West, Big 12, SEC, Big Ten and ACC will all play conference title games between Friday and Saturday before final selection takes place on Sunday afternoon.

One team that will not play in a conference title game is Notre Dame, which is still independent. This status will impact Notre Dame’s placement in the College Football Playoff.

Let’s go over the Irish’s playoff scenarios ahead of Saturday’s championship.

MORE COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF NEWS:

Is Notre Dame in the College Football Playoff?

Yes, the Fighting Irish are right in the field of 12 teams. Although the Irish are ranked No. 4 in the second-to-last CFP rankings heading into Saturday’s championship, Notre Dame is actually seeded sixth in the 12-team group.

That’s because the CFP’s top four seeds, in addition to first-round byes, are exclusive to the conference champions. About the playoffs themselves:

The top four ranked conference champions are seeded one through four and receive a bye in the first round. The fifth conference champion will be seeded where they were placed, or No. 12 if outside the top 12 rankings. Non-conference champions placed in the top four will be seeded starting at No. 5. For this reason, the seedings (1 to 12) could look different than the final ranking.

Notre Dame does not participate in a conference and will not play in a conference title game. Therefore, the Irish cannot be seeded in the top four in the playoffs and will not receive a first-round bye. Since ND won’t play a game on Saturday, the Irish shouldn’t move too far up or down in the final standings.

MORE: History of Notre Dame Football’s Independent Status

Why can’t Notre Dame play in the ACC title game?

You’re not the only one who thinks Notre Dame has a connection to the ACC. In fact, the Fighting Irish play in the ACC in every sport except football and ice hockey. Notre Dame remains independent in football but plays five ACC teams each year. This allows Notre Dame to remain independent, retain its traditional rivalry games such as USC and Navy, and play a national schedule.

Because ND only plays five ACC opponents each year, the Irish are ineligible to play in the ACC title game.

Notre Dame playoff seeding scenarios

Since the Irish are not playing in a conference title game and have no chance of losing this weekend, ND is safely in the top 12. We’ll see where the Irish end up when the championship Saturday is over.

If Oregon and Texas win their championship games, Notre Dame will likely move up to No. 5, as Penn State will fall behind the Irish with an additional loss.

If Penn State and Texas win, Notre Dame should stay at No. 6, while Oregon swaps seeds with Penn State and gets the No. 5 seed. If Oregon and Georgia win, ND would once again remain at No. 6, while Penn State trails the Irish and Georgia comes out on top.

If Penn State and Georgia win, Notre Dame could drop to No. 7, as both Oregon and Texas would fall out of the top four and Penn State and Georgia would step in. Oregon and Texas would likely be ranked Nos. 5 and 6, pushing Notre Dame all the way to No. 7.

In either scenario, Notre Dame will have a home game in the first round, and the game is expected to take place on Friday, December 20th.

2024 College Football Playoff Round

College Football Playoff Round (December 3)

Notre Dame is already safely in the top 12 as there are no games left to play. But depending on what happens in the Big Ten and SEC title games, the Irish’s ranking could change by Selection Sunday, although probably not drastically.

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