For the first time since a home loss to the Georgia Bulldogs in October, the Texas Longhorns lost control of their postseason seeding as they dropped a 21-19 overtime decision to the Bulldogs in the SEC Championship Game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Saturday in Atlanta had to.

Heading into the first College Football Playoff selection show in the new 12-team format, the Longhorns don’t have to worry about spending the holidays in a mere bowl game because head coach Steve Sarkisian’s team is after the Entering the field a lock to enter the weekend as the No. 2 team and the No. 2 seed in the playoff rankings.

When ESPN televises the selection show on Sunday at 11 a.m. Central, the winners of the championship game will occupy the top four seeds, almost certainly in order of second-to-last playoff rankings – No. 1 Oregon, the Big Ten champions, No. 2 in the playoff rankings Georgia, the SEC champion, No. 3 seed Arizona State, the Big 12 champion and No. 4 seed Clemson, the ACC champions.

Each of these Power Four Conference champions will receive a first-round bye, securing a break until the quarterfinals on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day.

The other eight teams will compete on December 20th or 21st and will make the selection committee’s most important and difficult decisions.

The two highest remaining seeds are the most desirable as they would secure quarterfinal games against the weakest conference champions – Arizona State and Clemson.

In the hours before the committee’s decisions and in the days afterward, the debate centers on the respective resumes of Texas, Penn State and Notre Dame.

The Longhorns and Nittany Lions are expected to have an advantage by playing their respective conference championship games. Applying that logic suggests that the Fighting Irish may not be able to secure a spot higher than seventh due to their independence and a strong schedule that ranks 58th according to ESPN.

There are only small gaps between Texas and Penn State, with the Horns starting Sunday with a strong deficit over the Fighting Irish and Nittany Lions in the ESPN statistics. The FPI Power Index also lists Texas as the best team in the country following its overtime loss to Georgia.

So those metrics, along with the Longhorns’ No. 2 ranking by the committee last week, suggest Texas will be No. 7 and secure a first-round game in Austin at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium.

What Sarkisian and the Horns want to avoid is a No. 7 seed, which would likely pit them against the Bulldogs in the quarterfinals for the third time, or a No. 8 or 9 seed along with the Ducks.

However the selection committee approaches the new format, the reality is that the narrow margin between Saturday’s win against Georgia and the overtime loss brings with it a lot of variability that will impact the chances of Texas advancing to the national championship game could be significantly reduced.

And that’s ultimately what the Longhorns deserve.