In our eternal mission to predict the future, in my humble estimation, a top-down look at how an offense might attack its opponent’s defense is a good place to start.

Every season we find defenses that excel at what is known as a “run funnel,” meaning that opponents rely unusually heavily on the rushing attack in neutral and positive game scripts. The same goes for pass funnels: defenses that are regularly attacked from the air in neutral situations (generally, that means when the game is within seven points either way).

This column is about identifying those matches. This funnel defense analysis shouldn’t be the be-all and end-all for determining your weekly fantasy plays. It’s just another data point in your nerve-wracking decision-making about who to play and who to bench.

Pass funnel matchups

Raiders vs. Bucs

We get a rare treat in a time of boring run-first check-down, EPA-mandated NFL football: a matchup between two proven pass funnel defenses. The Bucs are the third-highest passing scorer in the league in Week 14; The Raiders are fourth.

Ten of 12 teams playing Vegas this season were above their expected pass rate, with the last five teams playing the Raiders at least 8 percent above it. According to my tables, that’s a lot. Meanwhile, Tampa’s opponents have exceeded their expected passing percentage in nine of 12 games. The Bucs had a 64 percent neutral pass rate in 2024, by far the highest in the NFL.

There are likely to be plenty of setbacks in this game, which has a total score of 46 Vegas points, two points more than Monday. Both Baker Mayfield and Aidan O’Connell should have plenty of time to operate in the pocket this week: the Raiders have one of the lowest pressure ratings in the NFL and the Bucs’ pass rush is mediocre at best. Both QBs have a fantastic chance to pick apart the opposing defense as well. The Bucs have the highest drop-back success rate in the league, and the Raiders aren’t too far behind with the ninth-highest rate.

A pass-heavy script for Vegas obviously benefits Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers, who combined for 16 catches on 25 targets against the Chiefs last week. Tre Tucker somehow led the team in passing routes against KC, so a series of O’Connell dropbacks could potentially bring him into play as a viable option in deeper leagues. Tucker would be firmly in the game if Meyers, who suffered an ankle injury on Thursday, were to miss this game.

Cade Otton and Mike Evans would be the primary beneficiaries of a pass-heavy attack against the Raiders. Sterling Shepard, who ran a route on 28 of the Bucs’ 33 dropbacks last week with Evans back on the roster, could see trickle-down advantages against the pass-funnel Raiders. He was targeted seven times in his 28 routes against Carolina last week and operated from the slot on 66 percent of his routes. Rachaad White, meanwhile, could face a setback as he remains the team’s primary pass-catching defender.

Bucky Irving is in a crisis situation because Bucky Irving has never been in a crisis situation.

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Jaguars vs. Titans

Hark, we have another duel of pass funnel defenses. It’s an embarrassment of riches for NFL fans who enjoy games with a success rate of more than 50 percent (here we’re looking at you, Eagles and Steelers and Colts and Lions and Packers and Commanders and Ravens and, to a lesser extent, Bills and Falcons). .

Through Week 13, the Titans are the league’s seventh-largest pass funnel. The Jaguars are in fifth place and are qualified for by far the highest pass EPA in the NFL. Jacksonville isn’t exactly strong against the run, but they’re atrocious against the pass, and opponents have behaved accordingly.

After a pass-first start to the 2024 season, the Titans have reversed course and become a top-10 run offense, presumably trying to hide Will Levis and his almost weekly disastrous decisions. Still, the Titans’ 62 percent drop-back rate this season shows us that they’re not afraid to let it rip when the match is right. A pass-first approach for Tennessee this week should make Levis interesting as a streaming option in one-QB leagues and as a lock-in starter in Superflex formats.

Calvin Ridley, who leads the NFL in air yards and has a 29 percent target share since Week 8, should have a hefty stat line against the devastating Jaguars. I suspect Nick Westbrook-Ikhine — who has scored four touchdowns on his last seven receptions — could continue to get away with it here. Chig Okonkwo, who scored six times in an extremely pass-heavy game against Washington in Week 13, would be the next best choice if he saw inflated route and targeting numbers against the Jaguars. He could be in play as a desperate option.

Five of the last six teams to face the Titans performed well above their expected success rate. Jacksonville, which enters as a 5.5-point underdog, should be added to Tennessee’s list of pass-heavy opponents, with Mac Jones at the helm in place of the concussion-stricken Trevor Lawrence.

After running ice cold against the Texans last week (205 yards!), Brian Thomas should see an uptick in targets here, along with short-area vac Evan Engram. Parker Washington, who I wrote about in this week’s regression files, could once again be interesting in 12-team leagues, although I don’t suspect he will retain his status as a target eater. I should mention that Devin Duvernay was the Jags’ main slot last week against Houston, scoring four goals. Do whatever you want with this information. I release myself from any Duvernay-related lineup decisions you make in the next 48 hours.

Conduct funnel matchups

Bears vs 49ers

San Francisco, as I’ve mentioned once, twice, or twelve times this season, is a key run-funnel defense. They are actually the NFL’s most pronounced run funnel. Three of the 49ers’ most recent opponents were at least 7 percent below their expected pass rate and the teams passed the ball in neutral situations against the Niners at a pass rate of 54 percent.

This trend could be enough to end a nice little streak of giga-ultra passes from the Bears. Since firing offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, the Bears have lost 71 percent of their offensive snaps, the third-highest rate in the league over that three-week period. It increased the target volume of all three Chicago wideouts and added a dash of volume to Caleb Williams’ otherwise ordinary fantasy profile. That could be ignored for a week against the 49ers, and that could lead to excessive volume for D’Andre Swift.

Although Swift was unable to practice on Thursday due to a quadriceps injury, it would be a big surprise for him if he were to miss Week 14. Roschon Johnson, meanwhile, remains out with a brain injury. Last week against Detroit, Swift was the only Chicago running back to record a rushing attempt (he had 11) and ran a pass route on half of Williams’ dropbacks. All in all, it’s not a hateful profile.

Only four teams – the worst of the worst – have allowed a higher rush EPA than the 49ers this season. They give up the 10th highest yards-after-contact rate per rush. It is the sign of a team that has given up. Swift recorded 20 touches against this defense in Week 14. Whoever takes the lead back role for Chicago will be in an absolutely fantastic situation.

Bills vs. Rams

I wrote the Rams last week in this area because LA has been slowly moving into heavy run funnel territory since Halloween. The Saints responded accordingly, rushing for 143 yards but falling 6 percent below their expected pass rate against the Rams.

Six of the last seven teams to face LA were well below their expected success rate. Opponents bully the Rams at the line; LA now has the fifth-highest rush yards before contact rate in the league and the seventh-highest rush EPA rate. This should be an open invitation for the race-interested bills to introduce it in Week 14.

Buffalo were 11 percent below their expected success rate in the Niners’ blizzard last week. Going into this matchup as 3.5-point away favorites, I expect the Bills to be even or in first place against the Rams. This should open up a lot of opportunities for James Cook and could make Ray Davis interesting for deep league purposes. Davis had 16 runs in the last two games and Cook had 23, including some work inside the ten-yard line.

With six teams on byes for some reason, Davis could be used as a starter for 12 teams, assuming the Bills take advantage of the Rams’ central defensive weakness.

Such an approach would create targeting issues for Amari Cooper, Khalil Shakir and the rest of the team’s pass catchers. The last time the Bills were in much trouble (other than last week’s snow game) was in Week 6 against the Jets, when only one Buffalo pass catcher – Dalton Kincaid – saw more than four targets from Josh Allen.