As in the past, below are the keys and my prediction for the Pittsburgh Steelers to win (or lose) today’s game. Three things that need to happen for them to end up on the right side of the scoreboard and vice versa in their Week 14 game against the Cleveland Browns.

My Steelers prediction is below.

The Steelers will win if…

1. Take advantage of the game circumstances

On paper, the schedule makes me feel less nervous than before. In Week 12, the Steelers were the away team on a short week after picking up an emotionally charged win over the Baltimore Ravens. Now the Browns are the away team and it’s just a short week after Monday night’s road loss to the Denver Broncos. I don’t think this will hurt them that much considering how familiar these two teams are and how recently they have played.

Still, the circumstances in Pittsburgh appear to be more solvable than before. And that works to their advantage, provided they can take advantage of these facts.

2. They employ a smarter running scheme

The biggest issue I had with the Week 12 loss was the team’s terrible run plan. Too simple, too repetitive, especially in brief moments. Gap systems became less effective as time went on and they were no longer able to block the backside linebacker, requiring overpowering linemen to make impossible blocks.

Pittsburgh should use its interior zone or interior duo to run up the middle more often and rely on the interior line to get some offense. Overall, OC Arthur Smith needs to show a better game plan and a longer week to build on the above point will give him time to put together something stronger.

3. George Pickens keeps his cool

Everyone talks about it, but it’s so obviously important. The Browns DBs will try to tease him early. They already are. I’m sure Tomlin and the coaching staff have been harping on this all week. Pickens, stay calm and don’t let the Browns lure you. Saying and acting are two different things and Pickens is put to the test from the start. But it is critical to his success and the success of this offense.

The Steelers will lose if…

1. The negativity of the game continues

I know I mentioned the running game above, but that is a separate point and so important to the team’s success. I wanted to share with you a data point that I just looked up yesterday. In the loss to the Browns in Week 12, the Steelers had a whopping 13 runs (excluding knee losses) for which they gained or lost zero yards. That’s most of it any team in a single game this season. Not a number Pittsburgh can afford to repeat.

A smarter game plan like the one outlined in the Winning section is key, but no matter what the plan is, the Steelers can’t keep piling up these negative plays and expect to stay on schedule, convert on third down and score score.

2. Winston wins the cup

Stretching a Winston Cup reference? Almost certainly. But to get to the point: Browns QB Jameis Winston is the most ups and downs quarterback you could ever say. Huge arm talent and brilliant nuance. Moments where he looks like a train wreck. The 497-yard, four-touchdown, three-interception performance last week against Denver says it all. I have to take advantage of the opportunities and not let him make the big throws he is capable of.

3. The offense can’t find its groove

And I mean that in a certain sense. The Browns counter the Steelers’ passing strengths well. Talented and competitive corners. And Myles Garrett’s presence takes away from Pittsburgh’s play-action and bootleg game, two essential parts of their offense. Against Cleveland, Russell Wilson only had two bootlegs, one of which came when Garrett was subbed off the field. Of course, throwing vertically, taking deeper drops, and requiring more time is a challenge when facing Garrett.

If Pittsburgh’s passers aren’t able to play a little left-handed and rely on the quick game more than they’d ideally like (or have some great approaches to doing the things they like), it could be for Wilson become more difficult.

3a. Special teams continue to slip

Bonus one. I wanted to mention special teams, which hasn’t been all that special in Pittsburgh over the last few weeks. Last time out, P. Corliss Waitman’s 15-yard strike in the snow was a blast. But the Steelers also had a field goal blocked and the kick coverage unit was weak against the Bengals. Dominance must be regained here in order to win in all three phases.

forecast

Steelers: 26
Shades of brown: 16

Seasonal forecast record

5-7

(This is terrible, I understand)