Entering the 2024 season, 57 teams had at least a 3% chance of making the 12-team College Football Playoff, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. At the middle of the season there were still 30 teams that fit this description. Heck, before championship week, 15 teams still had playoff dreams.

But now, after a breathless 15 weeks and at least one controversial decision, we have our bracket. And in less than two weeks, we will have our first four playoff games to enjoy.

Unlike a four-team playoff, a 12-team playoff is a real one tournamentwith randomness and bracket-busting potential playing a big role. So we don’t have a single team with more than one 20.4% Chance of winning the national championship, per SP+. (In fact, half the field has a title chance between 9% and 20%. The matter is completely open.) But with the breaking of the brackets and the ferocity that lies ahead, someone will win the title.

Here’s how each of the 12 playoff teams, listed in order of seeding, could finish at the top.

First game: vs. Tennessee-Ohio State winner (first round bye)
National title odds, per SP+: 20.4%

How Oregon can win it all: With precision