College Football Playoff: Insights and predictions from the 12-team CFP bracket

College Football Playoff: Insights and predictions from the 12-team CFP bracket

The first round of the 12-team College Football Playoff has been announced.

All eyes were on how the CFP selection committee would evaluate Mountain West champion Boise State, Big 12 champion Arizona State and ACC champion Clemson, and which program would get the final spot in the CFP between SMU and Alabama.

We got our answers when the Broncos received the No. 3 pick in the CFP rankings, while the Sun Devils were rewarded with the No. 4 pick. Both teams receive byes in the first round. Meanwhile, Clemson, fresh off a win over SMU in the ACC title game, is the No. 12 seed and travels to Austin, Texas, to face the Longhorns in a first-round game.

As for the SMU vs. Alabama debate – the committee favored the Mustangs, rewarded Rhett Lashlee’s No. 11 team, and set up an opener against Penn State.

Here’s a look at my key takeaways from the bracket reveal:

1. The CFP Committee values ​​the Group 5 champion over the Big 12 and ACC champion

The College Football Playoff selection committee has shown that it no more values ​​the quality of play in the Big 12 or ACC than it does in the Mountain West. Boise State, a Group 5 champion, was seeded ahead of Big 12 champion Arizona State and ACC champion Clemson.

The Broncos only have one loss. However, the only defeat suffered by the country’s No. 1 team in the last play of the game. While talisman and Heisman finalist Ashton Jeanty rushed for 192 yards.

However, the Sun Devils prevailed in a league that ended in a four-way tie for first place, while the Tigers defeated an 11-win SMU team in the ACC Championship Game.

2. SEC, Big Ten show their dominance

The SEC and Big Ten are the dominant leagues in the sport, with seven of the twelve teams coming from those conferences. The No. 1 seed in the CFP – Oregon – is a Big Ten team, while the No. 2 seed – Georgia – is an SEC program. This leads us to believe that the committee expects these teams to finish in the national title game, which would be a rematch of the 2022 game when Georgia dominated Oregon 49-3 in Atlanta.

3. Texas is rewarded with the number 5 seed

Texas will receive the honor of playing a home playoff game and earning the coveted No. 5 seed. The Longhorns host ACC champion Clemson in a rematch worthy of Friday Night Lights. The 2021 Texas State Championship game between Southlake Carroll and Austin Westlake ended with Cade Klubnik’s Chaparrals defeating Quinn Ewers’ Dragons 52-34. Klubnik and Ewers now get the chance to face each other again, this time in a first-round duel in Austin.

Now that the 12 teams in the College Football Playoff have been determined, here are my predictions:

Bye in the first round

1. Oregon: Bye (would then play the winner of 8. Ohio State vs 9. Tennessee)

2. Georgia: Bye (would then play the winner of 7. Notre Dame vs. 10. Indiana)

3. Boise State: Bye (would then play the winner of 6. Penn State vs. 11. SMU)

4. Arizona State: Bye (would then play the winner of 5. Texas vs. 12. Clemson)

PLAY IN THE FIRST ROUND

5. Texas vs. 12. Clemson

The Longhorns are coming off an emotional loss to Georgia, while the Tigers are coming off a brilliant ACC title victory against an SMU team that also made the 12-team field. The Texas defense must show it can stop Klubnik from escaping the pocket and hurting them in the run game, like Georgia’s backup QB Gunner Stockton did in the SEC Championship Game.

Winner: Texas.

6. Penn State vs. 11. SMU

The Nittany Lions believe they have the type of physical team capable of imposing their will on a smaller SMU team. But with SMU’s Brashard Smith putting together his best season since Eric Dickerson, the Mustangs may feel they can push through PSU’s front seven and stretch the secondary with Kevin Jennings’ partnership with Roderick McDaniel.

Winner: Penn State.

7. Notre Dame vs. 10. Indiana

The Fighting Irish will face the most complete team they have seen all year in Indiana. The Hoosiers have beaten 10 of 12 opponents by double digits and believe they are the best team in the state of Indiana. However, Al Golden’s defense was outstanding, allowing only one team to score 35 points in a game this season.

Winner: Indiana.

8. Ohio State vs. 9. Tennessee

The Buckeyes have a chance to redeem themselves at the Shoe in front of their fans as Tennessee will travel to Columbus, Ohio. They’ll have to do it with Vols running back Dylan Sampson, the SEC’s top running back, who has rushed for 1,485 yards this season.

The Buckeyes have allowed 169 rushing yards per game this season but have been stingy when it comes to team scoring and fielded the top-ranked defense in the country.

Winner: Ohio State.

RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports and host of the podcast “The number one college football show.“Follow him on Twitter at @RJ_Young And Subscribe to The RJ Young Show on YouTube

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