• WR Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs – over 0.5 rush yards: From Xavier WorthyAfter the 11 runs this season, he has positive yardage on nine runs, contributing to his 74.6 PFF rushing grade.

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Estimated reading time: 3 minutes

Game overview

Sunday’s slate ends with a thrilling AFC West showdown between two postseason hopefuls: the Los Angeles Chargers and the Kansas City Chiefs.

In their Week 4 meeting, the Chargers took an early 10-0 lead in the first quarter, but then allowed 17 unanswered points and went scoreless for three straight quarters. The game was tied early in the fourth, but Kansas City worked hard on defense, holding Los Angeles to just 1.9 yards per play and an 0-for-4 mark on late-down conversions. The Chiefs eventually pulled away, leading to pressure for bettors at the final 7-point spread.

Since this duel, the developments of these teams on the betting markets have been different. The Chargers have posted a 6-2 record against the spread since Week 5, including 3-1 on the road. Although they are doing well in covering spreads, they struggle to close gaps against quality opponents, holding a record of 0-2-1 as underdogs.

On the other hand, the Chiefs have consistently found ways to win games but have faltered in the betting markets, with their last cover coming in Week 7. They have now missed six straight covers, leading to a 3-6-1 record against the Chiefs as spread favorites. What’s notable is that most of these ATS losses came with significant spreads of seven points or more. When the limit falls to 6.5 points or less, Kansas City has a 3-1 record against the spread.

This game features two of the most talented quarterbacks in the league Justin Herbert (86.9 class, 4th) and Patrick Mahomes (85.3 grade, 7th) both rank in the top seven of PFF quarterback grades this season. Expect another showcase of quality quarterback performances in this divisional battle.

WR Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs: Over 0.5 rush yards (+105) – 14.9% PFF betting model advantage

Although the first-round draft pick’s production and usage have come under greater scrutiny, Worthy is starting to find his rhythm and carve out a role in this offense. In the last three games, he recorded 15 touches with no ties Travis Kelce for the second most place on the team.

Andy Reid continues to incorporate Worthy into the running game in creative ways, giving the talented receiver more opportunities to move the ball into space. Worthy has carried in eight of his 11 games this season, averaging 4.5 yards per attempt. Of his 11 runs, he scored positive yardage on nine of them, contributing to his 74.6 PFF rushing grade.