The fall of Assad is a blow to Russia’s reputation

The fall of Assad is a blow to Russia’s reputation

For nearly a decade, it was Russian firepower that kept Bashar al-Assad in power.

Until the extraordinary events of the last 24 hours.

Damascus has fallen, the Syrian president has been overthrown and has reportedly flown to Moscow.

Citing a source in the Kremlin, Russian news agencies and state television reported that Russia granted Assad and his family asylum “on humanitarian grounds.”

In just a few days, the Kremlin’s Syria project has failed under the most dramatic circumstances, without Moscow being able to prevent it.

In a statement, the Russian Foreign Ministry said Moscow was “following the dramatic events in Syria with extreme concern.”

The fall of the Assad regime is a blow to Russia’s reputation.

By deploying thousands of soldiers in 2015 to support President Assad, one of Russia’s main goals was to assert itself as a global power.

It was Vladimir Putin’s first major challenge to Western power and dominance outside the former Soviet space.

And a success, it seemed. In 2017, President Putin visited Russia’s Hmeimim Air Base in Syria and declared that the mission had been accomplished.

Despite regular reports that Russian airstrikes resulted in civilian casualties, the Russian Defense Ministry felt confident flying international media to Syria to witness the Russian military operation.

I remember one such trip when an officer told me that Russia was in Syria “for the long haul.”

But this was about more than just prestige.

In return for military support, the Syrian authorities granted Russia 49-year leases for the Hmeimim air base and the Tartus naval base.

Russia had secured an important base in the eastern Mediterranean. The bases became important hubs for the transfer of military contractors to and from Africa.

A key question for Moscow: What happens now to these Russian bases?

The statement announcing Assad’s arrival in Moscow also mentioned that Russian officials were in contact with representatives of the “Syrian armed opposition.”

The state TV presenter said opposition leaders had guaranteed the security of Russian military bases and diplomatic missions on the territory of Syria.

The Russian Foreign Ministry said bases in Syria had been put on “high alert” but claimed there was “no serious threat to them at the moment.”

Bashar al-Assad was Russia’s staunchest ally in the Middle East. The Kremlin had invested heavily in him. Russian authorities will find it difficult to portray his ouster as anything other than a setback for Moscow.

Yet they try… and look for scapegoats.

On Sunday evening, Russian state television’s main weekly news program took aim at the Syrian army, apparently accusing it of not fighting the rebels.

“Everyone could see that the situation for the Syrian authorities was becoming more and more dramatic,” said presenter Yevgeny Kiselev.

“But in Aleppo, for example, positions were abandoned practically without a fight. One by one, fortified areas were abandoned and then blown up, even though the government troops were better equipped and vastly outnumbered the attacking side. This is a mystery!” “

The presenter claimed that Russia had “always hoped for reconciliation (between different sides) in Syria.”

Then his last point:

“Of course we are not indifferent to what is happening in Syria. But our priority is Russia’s own security – what is happening in the zone of special military operations (Russia’s war in Ukraine).”

There is a clear message to the Russian public here.

Although Russia has poured resources into keeping Bashar al-Assad in power for nine years, Russians are repeatedly told they have more important things to worry about.

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