Who will win the first 12-team College Football Playoff national championship? I believe there are six teams that have the personnel, smarts and leadership necessary to win it all and handle top competition as the margin for error becomes smaller and the spotlight becomes much brighter.

I love so many of these matchups as we play out the round. I’ve been looking forward to this first expanded playoff for a long time and now I’m positively excited about what awaits us in the next month and a half.

Here are my picks for the playoffs:

First round

(8) Ohio State over (9) Tennessee

8pm ET | Saturday December 21st | Columbus, Ohio

I love this opening round matchup. The Vols will feature the best defense the Buckeyes have ever played, and young Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava was impressive across the board, throwing 11 touchdowns and just one interception in five games in November. But I think the Buckeyes’ defense will be the difference against a shaky Vols O-line in a very hostile environment.

(5) Texas over (12) Clemson

4pm ET | Saturday December 21st | Austin, Texas

Clemson, the ACC champion, has won two national titles under Dabo Swinney. But the Tigers are just 2-3 against teams with winning records and 0-2 against the SEC, and now they head to Austin. It’s a very exciting QB battle here. Clemson’s Cade Klubnik, an Austin native, has been great and gotten better as the season has progressed, while Quinn Ewers and the Texas offense have faltered over the last month.

But I’m still sticking with the Longhorns here. I don’t think Clemson’s defense is strong enough – it ranks 14th in the 17-team ACC against the run – to win on the road against a team as talented as Texas.

(7) Notre Dame over (10) Indiana

8pm ET | Friday December 20th | South Bend, Indiana

Indiana doesn’t get a home game, but it doesn’t have to travel far to visit Notre Dame for the first meeting between its opponents since 1991. The Hoosiers have been a great story this season, but Notre Dame’s defense will be too much for IU. And even though the Hoosiers have the top-ranked run defense in the Big Ten, the Irish run game is very dangerous and can cause problems.

(6) Penn State over (11) SMU

Noon ET | Saturday December 21st | State College, Pennsylvania.

SMU entered the playoffs with the last overall bid despite losing to Clemson on Saturday and will face Penn State in Happy Valley, where there will be a raucous crowd. The Nittany Lions have an elite running back tandem in Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen and overcame a good Oregon defense. The Mustangs were excellent at shutting down the run, only Boston College averaged more than 4 yards per carry against them this year, and they averaged an ACC-best 2.74 yards per rush. SMU also protects its quarterbacks well (only allowing 15 sacks in 13 games).

But I won’t be playing against Penn State at Beaver Stadium. I have a feeling the Nittany Lions’ offense will have an impressive performance in the Big Ten title game.

Quarterfinals

(1) Oregon over (8) Ohio State

5pm ET | Wednesday, January 1st | Rose bowl | Pasadena, California.

That would be a fun rematch. The Buckeyes nearly beat the Ducks at Autzen Stadium midway through the season and can now play in the Rose Bowl again. I picked Ohio State to win it all in the preseason. I still think the Buckeyes are talented enough to win the title, even after their poor performance against Michigan two weeks ago, but it’s shown that this team is struggling under the pressure they have on themselves now seems to exercise itself.

On the other hand, Dan Lanning’s guys always seem prepared for any challenge, and I think the Ducks have a clear edge with Dillon Gabriel at QB.

(5) Texas over (4) Arizona State

1pm ET | Wednesday, January 1st | Peach peel | Atlanta

This matchup would be intriguing for a variety of reasons, but start with this: The Longhorns were just shy of being in the national title game last year, while the Sun Devils were picked to finish last in the Big 12 in the preseason after finishing 3-9 in Kenny Dillingham’s first season. The Sun Devils are arguably the hottest team in the country right now and have won six straight. Running back Cam Skattebo has been a beast and this ASU team really seems to benefit from his energy and attitude.

I think ASU gives Texas a game… for a half before the Longhorns’ talent takes over.

(2) Georgia over (7) Notre Dame

8:45 p.m. ET | Wednesday, January 1st | sugar bowl | New Orleans

Notre Dame’s O-line, which was a big question mark early in the season, has held up very well, allowing just 15 sacks in 12 games. But Georgia’s front seven is scary — just ask Ewers and Texas, whose solid O-line overwhelmed the Dawgs twice. While I think the Irish’s defense is good enough to keep this game close, Georgia’s athleticism comes at you in waves. The Bulldogs will force one or two big turnovers in the second half to get away.

(6) Penn State over (3) Boise State

7:30 p.m. ET | Tuesday, December 31st | Fiesta bowl | Glendale, Arizona.

Penn State lost at home to Ohio State and in the Big Ten title game to Oregon, but had a more favorable tie than both. In SMU and now Boise State, the Nittany Lions face two teams that were both G5 programs last year.

While this isn’t a great Penn State run defense – USC averaged nearly 8 yards per carry on PSU and Oregon ran for just 183 yards – and Ashton Jeanty is a much better defender than either of those teams, the Nittany Lions Enough athletes , so as not to let the superstar from Boise State go wild. Expect this one to be close. Jeanty probably goes for around 200 yards, but the Nittany Lions’ combination of tight end Tyler Warren and two elite running backs in a very good system comes up big down the stretch.

Semifinals

(1) Oregon over (5) Texas

7:30 p.m. ET | Friday, January 10th | Cotton bowl | Arlington, Texas

Gabriel has seen a lot of Texas since his time in Oklahoma. He beat a really good UT team last year in the Sooners and didn’t play in the 2022 game when the Horns eliminated the Sooners. His legs will play a key role here; He ran for 113 yards at Texas last year.

(2) Georgia over (6) Penn State

7:30 p.m. ET | Thursday, January 9th | Orange peel | Miami Gardens, Florida

Georgia’s offense has been really inconsistent, but as long as the first seven players are healthy, the Bulldogs pose major problems. Winning two playoff games is a step in the right direction for James Franklin’s Nittany Lions. But I don’t think they can handle the Dawgs, who are simply bigger and more physical than Penn State’s first two CFP opponents.

National Championship

(1) Oregon over (2) Georgia

7:30 p.m. ET | Monday, January 20th | Atlanta

Dan Lanning versus his old boss Kirby Smart in the title game is a sweet subplot. The Ducks are built a lot like Smart’s roster. They have many of the same elite big players – perhaps not quite as many of them in the front seven – and they also have better talent and edge at quarterback, especially given Carson Beck’s injury questions.

For me, Oregon has the best QB in this entire field in Gabriel. He is highly experienced and precise and has quick reactions and first-class leadership skills. Consider this: Gabriel has a 22-to-3 TD-to-INT ratio against ranked opponents over the last three seasons. The guy seems to be at his best when the spotlight heats up and the competition gets tougher, and this game is as big as it gets. 86-year-old Nike founder and Oregon supporter Phil Knight finally wins his college football national title.

(Top illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photos: James Black, Aaron J. Thornton, James Gilbert / Getty Images)