College Football Playoff Prediction: Who Will Win the National Title?

The holder is set. The matchups are set. Who will win the College Football Playoff and become the first national champions of the 12-team era?

The favorites will be top seeds Oregon and Georgia. The Ducks are the only undefeated team in the Bowl Subdivision after reaching the Big Ten as first-year members of the conference. Georgia completed the program’s third SEC championship under coach Kirby Smart by defeating Texas for the second time this season.

But the Ducks and Bulldogs will have to contend with a blue-blooded lineup of major playoff teams, including Texas, Ohio State, Penn State, Tennessee and Notre Dame.

All in all, it’s not hard to make a case for one of the seven teams making it through the round unscathed. This makes Clemson, SMU, Indiana, Boise State and Arizona State the clear outsiders in this renowned field of national heavyweights.

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Rough road: Oregon is the No. 1 seed but doesn’t have an easy path to the playoffs

With the opening round pairings set and the top four seeds having a bye before the quarterfinals, here is USA TODAY Sports’ play-by-play prediction for the 12-team playoffs:

First round of the College Football Playoff

No. 5 Texas defeated No. 12 Clemson

Texas will reap the rewards of losing the SEC: the No. 5 seed. That sets up a tie between third-seeded Clemson and then Arizona State, the lowest-seeded conference champion, in the quarterfinals. The Tigers can pull off an upset here, but it starts with putting the game in the hands of Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers and demanding mistake-free football from quarterback Cade Klubnik. Look for the Texas talent level to ultimately win with greater overall consistency and win by double digits.

No. 6 Penn State over No. 11 SMU

Make no mistake, the Mustangs have the offensive firepower needed to get into Happy Valley and knock out Penn State. They must create a fast, high-scoring duel with quarterback Kevin Jennings, who utilizes his dual-threat ability. But that’s easier said than done given the Nittany Lions’ stout defense. Like Texas, the Nittany Lions need solid play from Drew Allar at quarterback, but have room for error against the ACC runner-up because of their running game with Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen.

No. 7 Notre Dame over No. 10 Indiana

Due to the relatively weak strength of the schedule, Notre Dame remains under the radar as a legitimate contender. The Fighting Irish have one of the most balanced teams, from offense to defense to special teams. Likewise with Indiana, even if the Hoosiers’ chances of winning one or more playoff games are viewed with great skepticism. Look for Notre Dame to slow Kurtis Rourke and the Hoosiers while punishing the Indiana defense with the nation’s third-best running game in yards per carry.

No. 8 Ohio State over No. 9 Tennessee

This is the first pair of the opening round and a nice barometer of how the playoff games could play out between the best of the best in the Big Ten and SEC. Facing two evenly matched teams with similar characteristics, two factors will tip the difference in Ohio State’s favor: home field advantage and a more credible offense. Buckeyes quarterback Will Howard has more experience and better skills. But another big play from Volunteers signal-caller Nico Iamaleava could easily turn this game in the opposite direction.

Quarterfinals

Texas over No. 4 Arizona State

Here, too, Texas benefits from the fifth place ranking. Thanks to the backfield pairing of quarterback Sam Leavitt and running back Cam Skattebo, Arizona State goes into the postseason with a six-game winning streak. This is a different challenge for the Sun Devils than in the Big 12, which will need another Herculean effort from the Sun Devils to loosen up the Longhorns’ defense and pull off a significant upset.

Penn State over No. 3 Boise State

Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty will enter the quarterfinals, 131 yards shy of Barry Sanders’ season-high 2,628 rushing yards. He’ll hit a wall at Penn State, where he ranks ninth in yards on the ground allowed per game and third in rushing touchdowns allowed. Any chance the Broncos have of advancing to the semifinals will require another big game from Jeanty, and it’s hard to say he’ll find scoring opportunities against the Nittany Lions’ front line. If Penn State can slow him down, it would put pressure on Boise State quarterback Maddux Madden and his receivers to play at a level unseen this season.

Notre Dame over No. 2 Georgia

Here’s the first big upset of the playoffs. One thing to consider is the possible availability of quarterback Carson Beck, who was injured just before halftime of the SEC championship game and underwent an MRI on Sunday. Even if he’s back in the lineup, will Beck be healthy enough to compete against the best pass defense in the country? Notre Dame allowed opponents just 48.7% of attempts with 17 interceptions and just nine touchdowns.

No. 1 Oregon over Ohio State

Oregon has been here before, posting a 32-31 win in the regular season, and can get a second win against the Buckeyes with the same plan. While the Buckeyes can change that narrative with a strong game against Tennessee, they resemble two teams moving in different directions: Oregon up, Ohio State down. To beat the Ducks, the power and explosiveness of an offense that has been struggling since late October would need to be significantly increased.

Semifinals

Notre Dame over Penn State

Two stingy defenses will decide what will help revive a rivalry that has been dormant since Penn State’s 31-10 victory in 2007. The Nittany Lions could become one-dimensional with Notre Dame’s ability to finish everything from the air. If so, it will be a tough ride for Penn State. But the Irish also need to deliver through the air, so quarterback Riley Leonard will have to continue his strong play after a slow start to the regular season. Notre Dame’s advantage in developing big plays from scrimmage might be the biggest factor.

Oregon via Texas

This matchup would be reminiscent of Washington’s shootout win over Texas in last year’s semifinals. Then, as now, Texas needs to make every possession count and avoid giving Oregon extra points with costly giveaways. The Longhorns’ best path to victory might even be to slow down the tempo and beat down the Ducks’ defensive front, making things easier for Ewers. Oregon has more options offensively and could still find ways to the end zone even if its running game doesn’t find traction. It’s also worth noting that Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel has already beaten the Longhorns in his career with a memorable win with Oklahoma last season.

National Championship Game

Oregon over Notre Dame

Here we are: Oregon vs. Notre Dame for the first time in the postseason. The two met twice during the regular season, most recently in 1982 in a 13-13 tie. The Irish could win the program’s first national championship since 1988 by combining the Ducks’ fast-paced offense with a methodical running game and a relentless defense. Oregon wins by relying on the full arsenal of its skill talent. This would be a monster test for the Ducks. But the best team in the country during the regular season finishes as the first title winner in the 12-team format.

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College Football Playoff Prediction: Who Will Win the National Title?

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