Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers lead the NFC South for the first time in 10 weeks. Mayfield threw three touchdowns en route to a 28-13 win over the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday, putting the Bucs back in control of their playoff destiny.

Tampa enters Week 15 at 7-6, and the Atlanta Falcons – four straight losers, including Sunday’s 42-21 loss to the Minnesota Vikings – have fallen to 6-7. After losing to the Falcons twice this season, the Bucs need to win the division outright and avoid tiebreakers, and they are capable of doing just that.

Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Eagles survived a terrible Sunday against the Carolina Panthers to win 22-16 and secure a spot in the playoffs. They joined the Detroit Lions and became the only NFC teams to secure a postseason berth this season.

As for the rest of the NFL, here’s how things stand in the playoffs: All that’s left in Week 14 is the Monday Night Football matchup (Cincinnati Bengals vs. Dallas Cowboys).

The listed odds of making the playoffs, securing the No. 1 seed and winning the Super Bowl are all over The athleteNFL projection model created by Austin Mock.

x – Secure spot in the playoffs | z – Won Division Title | * – Won Seed #1

Remaining schedule: at Browns, vs. Texans, at Steelers, vs. Broncos

Opportunities: To reach playoffs: 100% | To Earn: 76.3% | To win the Super Bowl: 18.9%

Every team on the planet would sign on for the Chiefs’ so-called mistakes. No, they’re not the explosive team seen in recent seasons, but they just won their ninth straight AFC West title and have a two-game lead over the No. 1 seed in the AFC with four games left. They are expected to be the clear favorites in three of those games, so the conference will once again go through Arrowhead.

The doink sounded around the AFC West ‼️

Kansas City secures the division with this FG.

🎥 @NFL pic.twitter.com/CaTNGdYUwi

– The Athlete (@TheAthletic) December 9, 2024

Remaining schedule: at Lions, vs. Patriots, vs. Jets, at Patriots

Opportunities: To reach playoffs: 100% | To Earn: 19.4% | To win the Super Bowl: 12.5%

The Bills’ defensive collapse against the Los Angeles Rams took some of the shine off the upcoming showdown with the Lions, but there’s a bigger issue at stake. The Bills allowed receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp to combine for 270 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns, so the Lions will look to exploit those coverage deficiencies. And if so? The floodgates could be open for the Bills’ main playoff rival, as well-run offenses will understand how to attack a team that seemed untouchable for quite a while.

Remaining schedule: at Eagles, at Ravens, vs. Chiefs, vs. Bengals

Opportunities: To reach playoffs: 99.9% | To Earn: 4.2% | To win the Super Bowl: 4.2%

The Steelers need to take full advantage of their two-game lead over the Baltimore Ravens, as they have the third-strongest remaining depth in the league (and the toughest among teams in the playoff field). With so much attention on AFC powers like the Chiefs and Bills, the Steelers have an opportunity to show how they’ve been doing over the last month.

RIGHT IN THE CENTER! @pat_fry5

📲 Stream on NFL+: https://t.co/COxKRnr6Mc pic.twitter.com/r6kzAguYpd

— Pittsburgh Steelers (@steelers) December 8, 2024

Remaining schedule: vs. Dolphins, at the Chiefs, vs. Ravens, at the Titans

Opportunities: To reach playoffs: 97.2% | To earn free money: 0.1% | To win the Super Bowl: 4.7%

The Texans have a two-game lead and the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Indianapolis Colts, so they’re still in good shape after losing oil in their last seven games and suffering four losses. But with a tough schedule down the stretch, the Texans made better use of their bye week.

Remaining schedule: at Giants, vs. Steelers, at Texans, vs. Browns

Opportunities: To reach playoffs: 95.1% | To Earn: 0% | To win the Super Bowl: 4.7%

Lamar Jackson is trying to become the seventh player to win his third MVP award, but he has bigger goals in mind. He is one of 10 multi-MVP winners in the Super Bowl era who have never hoisted the Lombardi Trophy. Jackson is 1-2 in the playoffs when winning the MVP and 1-2 in non-MVP seasons.

Remaining schedule: against Buccaneers, against Broncos, at Patriots, at Raiders

Opportunities: To reach playoffs: 89.2%| To Earn: 0% | To win the Super Bowl: 2.9%

The Chargers are changing history this season, but they’re not out of the woods yet. They were defeated by the Chiefs for the third straight year and are 1-4 against teams in the playoff field. The win came against the Denver Broncos, who are 1-5 against current playoff teams.

Remaining schedule: against Colts, against Chargers, against Bengals, against Chiefs

Opportunities: Reach playoffs: 77.5% | To Earn: 0% | To win the Super Bowl: 2.4%

The Broncos have averaged 36 points per game over the last three games, but their opponents are in the bottom third of the league in points allowed during that time. To their credit, the Broncos took advantage of a weak schedule, but their postseason viability will be in question.

• Indianapolis Colts (6-7)
• Miami Dolphins (6-7)
•Cincinnati Bengals (4-8)

Eliminated

• Cleveland Browns (3-10)
• Jacksonville Jaguars (3-10)
• New York Jets (3-10)
• New England Patriots (3-10)
• Tennessee Titans (3-10)
• Las Vegas Raiders (2-11)

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x – Secure spot in the playoffs | z – Won Division Title | * – Won Seed #1

Remaining schedule: against Bills, at Bears, at 49ers, against Vikings

Opportunities: To reach playoffs: 100% | To Earn: 59.8% | To win the Super Bowl: 17.4%

With the best record in the league, the Lions have become accustomed to winning in almost any situation. But with consecutive 3-point wins, they are 4-0 in games decided by 3 points or less. They are fundamentally the most solid team in the NFL and don’t let themselves get rattled in tense situations.

Remaining schedule: against Steelers, at Commanders, against Cowboys, against Giants

Opportunities: To reach playoffs: 100% | To Earn: 33.2% | To win the Super Bowl: 13%

Saquon Barkley has a legitimate case for MVP, but the Eagles’ schedule could work against him as they don’t have another primetime game, which is usually helpful evidence for the prestigious award.

Saquon Barkley is the sole owner of the Eagles’ single-season rushing record, surpassing LeSean McCoy (1,607 yards).

Barkley did it in fewer than 13 games. pic.twitter.com/qwIdIaS4nY

– The Athlete (@TheAthletic) December 8, 2024

Remaining schedule: against Packers, against Vikings, at Bears, at Rams

Opportunities: To reach playoffs: 60.4% | To Earn: 0% | To win the Super Bowl: 2%

The Seahawks’ four-game winning streak is their longest since 2022, when they last made the playoffs. So they have recovered well after losing five out of six. But even with the cushion in the NFC West, they still have a lot of work to do with a challenging remaining schedule. They play the Green Bay Packers on Sunday night, and nothing strange will certainly happen when these teams meet under the lights.

Charbonnet to the HOUSE. pic.twitter.com/DChxJBhvKb

– Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) December 8, 2024

Remaining schedule: at Chargers, at Cowboys, vs. Panthers, vs. Saints

Opportunities: To reach playoffs: 67.3% | To Earn: 0% | To win the Super Bowl: 2.1%

The Bucs have snapped a four-game losing streak with three straight wins, and the Falcons are coming off a four-game losing streak of their own. The Bucs have a big game against the Chargers this week before facing three opponents with losing records. So they have a chance to finish the regular season with a seven-game winning streak.

Remaining schedule: against Bears, at Seahawks, against Packers, at Lions

Opportunities: To reach playoffs: 99.9% | To earn free money: 7% | To win the Super Bowl: 5.4%

Justin Jefferson just caught his first touchdown pass since Week 7. No matter, because the Vikings were 5-1 during that point drought, so visiting Detroit in Week 18 was considered a potential prime-time blockbuster. That result could be the difference between the No. 1 seed in the NFC and a bye or playoff berth in Seattle or Tampa.

.@JJettas2 takes us to the top!

📺: @NFLonFOX pic.twitter.com/FiqKCE1GE7

— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) December 8, 2024

Remaining schedule: at Seahawks vs. Saints, at Vikings vs. Bears

Opportunities: Reaching the playoffs: 94.6% | To Earn: 0% | To win the Super Bowl: 4.8%

The Packers are a real threat, as they showed in a narrow loss to the Lions, but there are a few concerns. They are 5-3 in one-possession games, with those three losses totaling 10 points, making them slightly better than a coin toss in close contests. And they are 1-4 against teams in the playoffs, with their only win coming at home against the Texans in Week 7. These are trends that will be difficult for a team that will open the postseason on the road to break.

Remaining schedule: at Saints, vs. Eagles, vs. Falcons, at Cowboys

Opportunities: To reach playoffs: 76.9% | To Earn: 0% | To win the Super Bowl: 1.7%

The Commanders are clinging to the final wild card spot and have a huge game in two weeks against the Eagles, who are expected to be their playoff opponent. The Commanders are 0-4 against teams in the postseason, including a Week 11 loss at Philadelphia.

• Los Angeles Rams (7-6)
• Atlanta Falcons (6-7)
• Arizona Cardinals (6-7)
• San Francisco 49ers (6-7)
• Dallas Cowboys (5-7)
• New Orleans Saints (5-8)
• Chicago Bears (4-9)
• Carolina Panthers (3-10)

Eliminated

• New York Giants (2-11)

(Photo by Baker Mayfield: Mike Ehrmann / Getty Images)