December 9, 2024

Monday morning report

A week of active weather starts today with a few hours of rain. This report features live radar and forecast simulation. Mild air follows with two afternoons in the lower 60s….

Wednesday’s rain will be heavier and may end in confusion or snow. Colder air follows, and storms on Thursday. Then another event on Sunday looks like rain.

Our drought includes an annual deficit of 8 inches. Rainfall totals could be as low as 1 to 2 inches by Wednesday.

Local morning temperatures

LIVE RADAR WIDGET

Morning surface weather

The first of two storms will arrive with rain in the morning and end in the afternoon. Mild air follows.

There is plenty of colder air available and it will catch up with the tail end of Wednesday’s storm.

Radar simulation: 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m

Lunch snapshot

Snapshot in the afternoon

Total precipitation: part 1

Afternoon temperatures

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY December 9th

Sunrise at 7:15 a.m

Sunset at 4:44 p.m

Normal low in Baltimore: 31°F

Record temperature of 4°F in 1876

Normal high temperature in Baltimore: 49°F

Record 73ºF in 1966

Baltimore Drought Update

7.65 inches BELOW AVERAGE precipitation since September 1st

8.13 inches BELOW AVERAGE precipitation since January 1st

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 10

Morning temperatures

Afternoon temperatures

Storm animation: Tuesday to Thursday

The second system will bring heavier rain on Wednesday. The cold air aloft will rush east and could catch up in the final hours. This could be a mixture or snow…

Snapshots Wednesday evening

ECMWF model:

This chart shows rain across much of central Maryland AND I’ve highlighted a key element in the atmosphere that suggests colder air aloft that could produce snow.

GFS model

This plot consistently showed this transition to snow. This promises no congestion or accumulation, except in the higher mountains of western Maryland.

We will watch as the cold air either catches up with some icing or the soil moisture evaporates first.

Total Rainfall POTENTIAL

Even if we get 1 to 2 inches of rain, it’s a small dent in the larger drought, which is a deficit of nearly 8 inches.

CLOSER LOOK

I posted this on FB Sunday evening to explain a little more about the cold air potentially catching up with the storm late Wednesday and ending with some snow.

7 day forecast

A week of active weather starts today with a few hours of rain

Wednesday’s rain will be heavier and may end in confusion or snow. Colder air follows, and storms on Thursday. Then another event on Sunday looks like rain.

In case you missed that

The Faith In The Flakes December 5th Origin story

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In case you missed it:

Snow report from November 22nd

WINTER OUTLOOK

My winter outlook report

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REPEATING MY MESSAGE ON THE TOPIC OF LEGEND

I understand that there are some spelling and grammatical errors, as well as occasional other errors. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer errors I may miss. I’ve made a few public statements over the years, but if you’re new here you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out about it in my sophomore year at Cornell University. However, that didn’t stop me from getting my degree in meteorology and being the first to receive the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington area.

One of my professors told me that I had made it this far without knowing it and that I shouldn’t let it be a crutch for the future. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely right! I miss my mistakes when proofreading myself. The automatic spell checker on my computer sometimes misses the mark and makes the problem worse. I can also make mistakes in forecasting. Nobody is perfect at predicting the future. All maps and information are correct. The “wordy” stuff can get sticky.

There was no editor to review my work when writing and have it ready to ship in a newsworthy time frame. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this website. She has made it her mission to correct typos when available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept that and perhaps prove that what you read is really mine… It’s part of my charm. #FITF