The excitement of an NBA game often begins with the first basket, and betting on who will score the basket creates additional anticipation for bettors. By analyzing tipping trends, defensive matchups and individual player stats, we have identified three value-oriented first basket picks for tonight’s game. Let’s examine why Brook Lopez, Nic Claxton and Ivica Zubac are the best candidates to strike first.

The Bucks win the tip 60% of the time this season, just ahead of the Hawks at 59.1%, giving neither team a clear advantage. However, Milwaukee won the tip in all three matchups last season, with Brook Lopez getting the first shot in each game.

This year, Lopez continues to be a key player in the early offense, as he made the first shot in 15.8% of his starts and scored first in 21.1% of games – the second-highest mark on the team behind Damian Lillard. Milwaukee’s early possession offensive structure often favors the use of Lopez in pick-and-roll or post-up situations, and with Atlanta giving opposing centers 54% of the opportunity to shoot from the field, Lopez is well positioned to shoot early to capitalize again.

Nets C Nic Claxton vs. Pacers (+800 FanDuel)

Nic Claxton delivered for us on Monday against the Bulls with a first basket cash of over 700 and we’re backing him again today. Brooklyn has won the opening tip in five of its last six games, and the Nets have hit their first shot 55% of the time, a stark contrast to the Pacers, who have made just 36% of their first attempts. That number has dropped to just 18% for Indiana over the past 20 days. Claxton has scored the first basket for Brooklyn in nearly 30% of his starts this season, and the center position has the highest first basket scoring rate on the team at 36.0%.

Clippers C Ivica Zubac vs. Timberwolves (+600, Caesars)

Zubac controlled the opening tip in 52% of games this season, and the Clippers as a team have also converted the first basket 52% of the time. However, over the last 20 days, that number has increased to 64%, giving them a clear advantage over the Timberwolves, who have only made 38% of their first attempts over the same period. Minnesota also allows opposing centers to score first 22% of the time, the highest rate at any position.